YMLADRIS:
Ending greenhouse gas emissions may not stop global warming: study
https://phys.org/news/2020-11-greenhouse-gas-emissions-global.amp
In an imaginary world where carbon pollution stops with a flip of the switch, the planet warms over the next 50 years to about 2.3 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels—roughly half-a-degree above the target set in the 2015 Paris Agreement—and cools slightly after that.
Earth's surface today is 1.2C hotter than it was in the mid-19th century, when temperatures began to rise.
But starting in 2150, the model has the planet beginning to gradually warm again, with average temperatures climbing another degree over the following 350 years, and sea levels going up by at least three metres.
Under the second scenario, Earth heats up to levels that would tear at the fabric of civilisation far more quickly, but ends up at roughly the same point by 2500.
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Reactions from half-a-dozen leading climate scientists to the study—which the authors acknowledge is schematic—varied sharply, with some saying the findings merit follow-up research, and others rejecting it out of hand.
"The model used here is ... not shown to be a credible representation of the real climate system," said Richard Betts, head of climate impacts research at the University of Exeter.
"In fact, it is directly contradicted by more established and extensively evaluated climate models."
Mark Maslin, a professor of climatology at University College London, also pointed to shortcomings in the model, known as ESCIMO, describing the study as a "thought experiment."
"What the study does draw attention to is that reducing global carbon emissions to zero by 2050"—a goal championed by the UN and embraced by a growing number of countries—"is just the start of our actions to deal with climate change."