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    TUHOKlimaticka zmena / Thank you so much for ruining my day


    "Given the sheer enormity of climate change, it’s okay to be depressed, to grieve. But please, don’t stay there too long. Join me in pure, unadulterated, righteous anger."


    "I don’t want your hope. I don’t want you to be hopeful. I want you to panic. I want you to feel the fear I feel every day. And then I want you to act. Once you start to act, the hope is everywhere."

    "Our best scientists tell us insistently that a calamity is unfolding, that the life-support systems of the Earth are being damaged in ways that threaten our survival. Yet in the face of these facts we carry on as usual."

    “We’ve got to stop burning fossil fuels. So many aspects of life depend on fossil fuels, except for music and love and education and happiness. These things, which hardly use fossil fuels, are what we must focus on.”

    A nejde o to, že na to nemáme dostatečné technologie, ty by na řešení použít šly, ale chybí nám vůle a představivost je využít. Zůstáváme při zemi, přemýšlíme až moc rezervovaně. Technologický pokrok to sám o sobě nevyřeší. Problém jsme my, ne technologické nástroje.

    Rostouci hladiny oceanu, zmena atmosferickeho proudeni, zmeny v distribuci srazek a sucha. Zmeny karbonoveho, fosforoveho a dusikoveho cyklu, okyselovani oceanu. Jake jsou bezpecnostni rizika a jake potencialni klady dramatickych zmen fungovani zemskeho systemu?
    Ale take jak funguji masove dezinformacni kampane ropneho prumyslu a boj o verejne mineni na prahu noveho klimatickeho rezimu post-holocenu.
    rozbalit záhlaví
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    TADEAS: a jeste dobry kontextualizujici komentar k ty randersove studii a escimo modelu:

    Vcool: didn't know ESCIMO. It's thought-experiment napkin-complexity level, super useful. This is extremely doable/teachable for students, should be seen as a school of thought to learn systems thinking, unlike GCM. https://t.co/m3e9DEaU9L /cc @ClimateBen @jembendell via @fardos https://t.co/OJAXjZ12cN

    Key point: it's really not about the results (this is just a tiny plaything of a model) but about learning to think :) https://t.co/KYIdm8btRs

    it's not a model to be taken seriously *for results*; more for intuition, to identify leverage points to look into as Donella Meadows called them. https://t.co/8CM7OPErZT
    https://twitter.com/_ppmv/status/1326970860972945409?s=20
    https://t.co/ZmZHkklgCA

    ...

    The *reception* of this study has shown how shallow our climate discourses are. ... Take it as a test in Critical Thinking 101: not sure many passed.

    Just ignore the findings for now—who cares what one SD study finds. This is not the point. Focus on methodology epistemology & system dynamics as a school of thought, it’s about learning to think differently. People don’t even stop to reflect the difference between supercomputer models that take weeks and gigantic resources to run mostly foreseeable results—and a desktop computer model that runs in seconds. Folks seriously, get a grip & go deeper than the headlines. If this level of critical reflection is indicative of climate discourse atm, I can only encourage y’all to read much more widely. take a few weeks off from climate & engage in literature or any other pastimes that teach thinking, do something fun.
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    YMLADRIS, TADEAS, TADEAS: za dva dny okolo toho vzniknul vtipnej info-vír .) ... jednak to prebiraj media v tom doomistickym tonu, coz je jedna vec, ktera se da kritizovat. ten clanek ale podle me spis jen ukazuje, co rika ten jejich zjednodusenej model, pricemz smyslem toho zjednodusenyho modelu je jen se prizpusobovat casem tem komplexnejsim modelum. smysl dobre udelanyho jednoduchyho modelu jsem chapal ze je v tom, aby si i instituce, ktery se nezamerujou vyhradne na klima mohly delat nejaky hruby modely pro svoje vyuziti. nemyslim, ze to spousta tech kritiku chape.



    Richard Betts
    https://twitter.com/richardabetts/status/1326948034979172356

    The water vapour and surface albedo feedbacks in that particular model are much stronger than in any of the CMIP models used in IPCC, which are more closely informed by observations & physical understanding



    Is the climate crisis pushing the world towards a ‘point of no return’? | The Independent
    https://www.independent.co.uk/...change/climate-change-crisis-tipping-point-world-warm-b1721822.html

    “The results presented in the paper are interesting but are really at odds with the science community’s understanding of how the climate is changing,” says Prof James Renwick, head of the school of geography, environment and earth sciences at the Victoria University of Wellington.

    “The latest round of climate model simulations show that if greenhouse gas emissions were to stop immediately, there is likely to be very little further increase in temperatures and no sign of warming resuming in future.”

    The models used by the IPCC are more advanced and better able to simulate the behaviour of the Earth’s feedback loops, says Prof Mark Maslin, a climate scientist at University College London.

    “These results do need to be confirmed by more complex climate models used in the IPCC reports, because these results come from one model which has not undergone the rigorous cross checking and testing that is usual for climate models,” he says.

    In their paper, the authors note the simplicity of their model by saying that they “encourage other model builders to explore our discovery in their [bigger] models, and report on their findings”.

    It is important to understand that it is not too late to take actions to address the climate crisis, says Prof Betts: “I really wouldn’t want people to take [the research paper] seriously and start getting worried that the climate catastrophe is now unavoidable.”

    Claims that the world is “doomed” to suffer extremely high levels of warming can be detrimental to global efforts to tackle the climate crisis, explains Leo Barasi, author of the Climate Majority.

    “Claims the world is irreversibly doomed to runaway warming, and no amount of emission cuts can help us, can always find an audience, just like claims that climate change is nothing to worry about,” he told The Independent.
    SHEFIK
    SHEFIK --- ---
    rychly prehled optimistickych zprav :)

    nejvetsi globalni uhelna korporace je neschopna splacet zavazky a brzy zkrachuje

    https://ieefa.org/...dy-warns-of-possible-second-bankruptcy-in-five-years-as-coal-industry-declines/

    pres 140 globalnich financnich instituci: They’re leaving coal, oil, LNG, fossil gas, oil sands, and Arctic drilling.

    https://ieefa.org/financial-giants-leaving-coal-oil-lng-other-fossil-fuel-platforms/

    solar se v roce 2020 stal nejlevnejsim energetickym zdrojem

    https://ieefa.org/solar-power-becoming-the-new-king-of-the-worlds-electricity-markets/

    exonnMobil (jedinej oil gigant bez carbon neutral planu) se chysta propoustet 14000 lidi. letos nemel na dividendy a byl vyrazenej na burze z s&p 500)

    https://ieefa.org/exxonmobil-plans-14000-job-cuts-amid-strong-fundamentals/

    jeste letos se dosahne globalne 200gw renewables, pricemz 90% letosni nove vybudovany vyroby je take renewable (jen 10% fosil)

    https://ieefa.org/iea-global-renewable-energy-capacity-will-climb-by-200gw-in-2020-more-in-2021/
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    LINKOS: je to o ztrate obalky toho domu na m2 a rok, energie, ktera tu ztratu pokreje je jina vec.

    styl jakej o tom treba uvazuju ja v nasich proporcich - rozdil mezi pasivnim standardem a nasim nejakym zhruba nizkoenergetickym je 10 kWh/m2/rok (jsme vypoctove okolo 25, pasiv 15 nebo min). to znamena, pri nasi podlahovy plose, vypoctove spotrebu o 3 MWh/rok navic (oproti pasivu). jenze realne to jde pres ventilacni TC, ktery protoze se zivi vnitrnim vzduchem ma vysokou efektivitu, protoze stale stejne stabilni teplotu vstupniho vzduchu. tzn. pokud potrebujeme ziskat za rok celkove rekneme 7.5 MWh, tak v TC je spotrebovano realne okolo 2.5 MWh el. energie. zaroven ale spotreba TC na vytapeni je koncentrovana do ty nejchladnejsi casti roku - kdy se pro snizeni spotreby el. energie v TC pouziva krbova vlozka s vymenikem (ohriva akumulacni nadrz). rekneme ze teda potrebujeme dotovat par zimnich MWh drevem (tepelna energie, ktera omezi spotrebu energie tep. cerpadlem). tech par MWh je docela mala hromadka dreva u domu (rekneme do 3 m3?). je to cely orientacni, ale ramcove to tak bude.

    pro nas tohle reseni znamena, ze nemusime dum utesnovat (koncept hybridniho vetrani), neni tu ten koncept ty striktni regulace vstupu a vystupu vzduchu, ale vzduch se neustale vymenuje, jen neprichazi centralne.

    jestli tu sezonni vyssi spotrebu TC pokreje zadna nebo jedna nebo dve hromadky dreva mi treba v nasem pripade neprijde moc rozdil. spotrebu TC v prubehu roku (krom jinyho) by mel pokryvat solar + baterky.

    u tech nulovejch/pozitivnich domu mi prijde zradny to, ze tam lze spoustu veci skryt za to, ze se postavi obrovska FV, pricemz ale realne ten dum treba tak efektivni neni a pres zimu jede z gridu. v tom mi prijdou nejpoctivejsi ty offgrid reseni, pripadne reseni, ktery maj grid spis jen jako backup - tam pak nic nejde vypoctove nafejkovat :)
    SHEFIK
    SHEFIK --- ---
    Plans for 50,000 hydrogen-powered taxis in Paris – pv magazine International
    https://www.pv-magazine.com/2020/11/12/plans-for-50000-hydrogen-powered-taxis-in-paris/

    European electric transmission company body ENTSO-E has unveiled details of a project to install 11 GWh of electrolyzed hydrogen storage capacity across ten locations around the French capital by the end of the decade.

    ...

    The project envisages the construction of ten locations around the French capital, each of which would feature 20-50 MW of grid-connected electrolyzer capacity and 100-500 MWh of hydrogen gas storage capacity.

    ENTSO-E's summary of the scheme stated the hydrogen would be generated from electrolysis powered by “decarbonized and green electricity sources,” wording which suggests a role for nuclear or even for thermal power generated in carbon capture and storage facilities.
    LINKOS
    LINKOS --- ---
    PAD: tak pokud jsem správně pochopil koncept jedna se o náročnost domu "primární" tedy fosilní energie prepoctenou na metr čtvereční obytné plochy. Proto se do domů které jsou na hraně a nesplnily by pasiv často montuje tepelné čerpadlo.
    Nulové a aktivní k tomu mají ještě solární elektrárny atd...
    PAD
    PAD --- ---
    My změny klimatu přežijeme, ale praprapravnoučata mohou mít problém, varuje meteorolog Dvořák | iROZHLAS - spolehlivé zprávy
    https://www.irozhlas.cz/veda-technologie/priroda/pocasi-petr-dvorak-zmena-klimatu_2011140803_pj
    PAD
    PAD --- ---
    LINKOS: ja nerozporuju, ze cim vetsi je energeticka efektivita, tim lepe - ovsem je treba se divat na cely cyklus te energie. co je lepsi: postavit novy dum, treba i pasivni (vyroba vsech materialu, prace, doprava, zasitovani, dostavba navazujicich sluzeb jako mhd, skoly, atp) nebo rekonstrukce starsiho domku do nizkoenergeticeho standardu? techto konverzaci jsem mel s mamou fakt hodne (postupne se z pozice nadsence do pasivu zmenila na jejich kritika - hlavne rika, ze je fakt tezky to postavit tak, aby to opravdu fungovalo, za rozumne penize). nikomu to tlacit nebudu, ale pro me pasivni novostavba neni - ani z hlediska komfortu bydleni, ani financne, ani ekologicky. usetrene penize radeji investuju do vetsi fotovoltaiky, kterou mohu pritapet a v budoucnu treba i krmit stroje (auto, atp). ale kazdy to ma jinak - kdyz nekdo napriklad fakt chce stavet novostavbu, nechce topit biomasou, vyhovuje mu rekuperace, muze to davat smysl. bohudik mame na vyber;)
    MARSHUS
    MARSHUS --- ---
    TADEAS: a tohle zajímavá alternativa.

    Climate change solutions: The Earth could provide renewable energy for buildings - Vox
    https://www.vox.com/...1537801/climate-change-renewable-energy-geothermal-heat-gshp-district-heating
    YMLADRIS
    YMLADRIS --- ---
    moc vtipny to neni to ale tak stejne to sem hodim :)



    KEB
    KEB --- ---
    Umožní nová legislativa provozování první AgroFotovoltaické farmy v Česku?
    https://oenergetice.cz/...je/umozni-nova-legislativa-provozovani-prvni-agrofotovoltaicke-farmy-cesku
    LINKOS
    LINKOS --- ---
    PETER_PAN: ok, klidně pošta.
    PETER_PAN
    PETER_PAN --- ---
    Je to na delsi diskuzi. Resim to asi 3 roky, mam primy reference, byl jsem na par mistech a realizacich. Jeden z nejlepsich kamosu minuly rok kolaudoval nizkoenergeticky dum (3 skla, nadkrokevni izolace, 16cm PS, rekuperacka s aktivnim tepelnym cerpadlem), atd. Ted jsem tedy ve fazi ze znovu vsechno do zakladu proargumentovavat a vysvetlovat dusledky uz nedavam :-) Takze se omlouvam.

    Treba ta rekuperacni jednotka. V rekuperacce [kovovy vymenik, ucinnost 60+%] nebudu mit zabudovane tepelne cerpadlo ani prihrev, ale IR panely po baraku (uz timhle konceptem nedosahnes pasiv normativne). Mam argumenty proc jo a proc ne.

    Tady je to OT, v prislusnym auditku je to akorat na shit-storm + placani nesmyslu od ID: CUKI. Idealne pokec u pivka a projektu, beta-projektu a navrhu. Asi bych casem zalozil nejake auditko kam budu postovat ruzne fragmenty s obrazkama a argumentama. Ted na to nemam.
    LINKOS
    LINKOS --- ---
    PETER_PAN: můžeš mluvit konkrétně?
    PETER_PAN
    PETER_PAN --- ---
    LINKOS: Hele ja tu stavbu hodne resim a splneni normativnich naroku na pasiv, oproti kvalitni nizkoenergeticke stavbe je fakt velky financni krok a hlavne velky kompromis v uzivani. Neni to zdaleka jen o nejaky prolepeni oken, tesnosti obalky atp.

    Ja jsem se smiril ze budu mit treba z 95+% pasiv (klidne ve finale 97), ale ten posledni krok k dosazeni splneni normy platit nehodlam. Navic ani pasiv neni v dusledku uplny pasiv. Je to arbitrarne urcena norma a splnit jeji princip z 95% proste bohate staci.
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    Less is More
    https://www.penguin.co.uk/books/111/1119823/less-is-more/9781785152498.html

    Book review: ‘Less is More: How Degrowth Will Save the World’ by Jason Hickel | degrowth.info
    https://www.degrowth.info/...k-review-less-is-more-how-degrowth-will-save-the-world-by-jason-hickel/

    The most valuable contribution of Less is More is that it provides an accessible and compelling introduction to ecological and social critiques of growth, and how degrowth could address these, for anyone who is remotely interested in a liveable future on this planet. Beyond the degrowth-curious then, this is a book that I can easily see becoming a staple of introductory reading lists on our current ecological crisis and ways forward. An introduction it certainly is though, and hopefully, for most readers Less is More will be just the start of their exploration of degrowth, rather than the full extent of it.

    Still, from a degrowther’s point of view, the arrival of Less is More means that you will no longer have to persuade your friends and relatives to wade through stuffy academic jargon for them to understand why you won’t shut up about this ‘degrowth’ thing. Jason Hickel has us covered.


    What does degrowth mean? A few points of clarification
    https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/14747731.2020.1812222

    Degrowth is a planned reduction of energy and resource use designed to bring the economy back into balance with the living world in a way that reduces inequality and improves human well-being. Over the past few years, the idea has attracted significant attention among academics and social movements, but for people new to the idea it raises a number of questions. Here I set out to clarify three specific issues: (1) I specify what degrowth means, and argue that the framing of degrowth is an asset, not a liability; (2) I explain how degrowth differs fundamentally from a recession; and (3) I affirm that degrowth is primarily focused on high-income nations, and explore the implications of degrowth for the global South.
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    LINKOS: no tak pro nas to treba smysl nedavalo - tlustsi zdi, tzn. docela zvetseni pudorysu pri stejny podlahovy plose a celkem znatelnej vydaj navic. pokud to nakonec znamena, ze se pres zimu usetri par polen, je nekde mira, pres kterou to smysl nedava a to je potreba nejak zohlednit. samozrejme pokud to nekomu za investici stoji, at to udela. a to mluvim z perspektivy, kdy mi jde o moznost snizeni ty provozni uhlikovy stopy a moznost energeticko materialovy lokalizace. v tomhle ramci ten pasivninstandard pro nas vysel jako prehnanej (prehnane zamerenej na jeden parametr)
    LINKOS
    LINKOS --- ---
    TADEAS: ta náročnost pasivu oproti kvalitní nízkoenergetické stavbě není zas o tolik větší. Problém je v tom, že mnoho věcí co by měla mít každá nová stavba nejsou standart. Například těsnost obálky, páska okolo oken, dostatečná vrstva izolace pod paracety, dobře provedené zateplení stropu, odpovídající tloušťkou izolace. Atd...
    Pokud se na mnohých stavbách tyhle věci neřeší, tak parametry co mají mnohé domy splňovat splňují jen na papíře.
    Pokud je pak tlak na dodržení těchto věcí jen u pasivních domu není se co divit, že je na ně prohlíženo jako na drahé a složité. Přitom spousta věcí jsou docela jednoduchá řešení, jen pro stavebníky nejsou moc zažité

    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    YMLADRIS:

    Expert reaction to study using a simulation to estimate how long global warming might continue for if greenhouse gas emissions are reduced to zero
    https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/...-continue-for-if-greenhouse-gas-emissions-are-reduced-to-zero/
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    YMLADRIS: to lepeny drevo se jmenuje cross laminated timber TADEAS

    k tomu ukladani uhliku do struktur mest a budov viz TADEAS

    z hlediska toho stavebnictvi to chapu tak, ze drevo je dobry, pokud jeho ziskavani nekompromituje ekosystemy, ale naopak se pracuje s tim, ze se prodlouzi jeho cyklus, tj. budova funguje jako jeho dlouhodoby uloziste.

    z hlediska tech izolaci a nizkoenergetickejch/pasivnich standardu - dosahnout toho pasivniho standardu je materialove (= i financne) podle me neumerny benefitu, a to nejen z toho financniho, ale podle me i celkovyho energeticko-materialovyho. to kolik se usetri na vytapeni uz je od nejaky tepelny ztraty neobhajitelny z hlediska tech investic. my treba momentalne jdeme cestou nizkoenergeticky drevostavby, kde je kombinace ventilacniho TC (teplo se ziskava s vysokou ucinnosti ze vzduchu odchazejiciho z budovy, cerstvej vzduch se nasava mrizkou "analogove" v kazdy mistnosti zvlast = neni vzduchotesnost ani blower door test), v kombinaci s krbovou vlozkou s vymenikem a podlahovym vodnim topenim (jupiter). nesplnuje to standardy toho pasivniho domu (z hlediska tepelny ztraty ale ne o moc), ani vzduchotesnost, ale na technologie i provoz a z pohledu energeticko-materialovy lokalizace je to treba pro nas optimum.
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    YMLADRIS:

    Ending greenhouse gas emissions may not stop global warming: study
    https://phys.org/news/2020-11-greenhouse-gas-emissions-global.amp


    In an imaginary world where carbon pollution stops with a flip of the switch, the planet warms over the next 50 years to about 2.3 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels—roughly half-a-degree above the target set in the 2015 Paris Agreement—and cools slightly after that.

    Earth's surface today is 1.2C hotter than it was in the mid-19th century, when temperatures began to rise.

    But starting in 2150, the model has the planet beginning to gradually warm again, with average temperatures climbing another degree over the following 350 years, and sea levels going up by at least three metres.

    Under the second scenario, Earth heats up to levels that would tear at the fabric of civilisation far more quickly, but ends up at roughly the same point by 2500.

    ...

    Reactions from half-a-dozen leading climate scientists to the study—which the authors acknowledge is schematic—varied sharply, with some saying the findings merit follow-up research, and others rejecting it out of hand.

    "The model used here is ... not shown to be a credible representation of the real climate system," said Richard Betts, head of climate impacts research at the University of Exeter.

    "In fact, it is directly contradicted by more established and extensively evaluated climate models."

    Mark Maslin, a professor of climatology at University College London, also pointed to shortcomings in the model, known as ESCIMO, describing the study as a "thought experiment."

    "What the study does draw attention to is that reducing global carbon emissions to zero by 2050"—a goal championed by the UN and embraced by a growing number of countries—"is just the start of our actions to deal with climate change."
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