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    TUHOKlimaticka zmena / Thank you so much for ruining my day
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    Johan Rockström: ‘We need bankers as well as activists… we have 10 years to cut emissions by half’ | Climate change | The Guardian
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/may/29/johan-rockstrom-interview-breaking-boundaries-attenborough-biden

    An emergency is calculated by risk divided by time. Risk is probability multiplied by impact. Scientifically, we now have a very unfortunate set of data in front of us. We know that the likely impact on humans of climate disruption, mass extinction and air pollution is very, very high indeed. The probability is also uncomfortably high. This adds up to a very high risk. Now divide that by time. We have unequivocal evidence that we have entered a decisive decade. If we have any chance to prevent the loss of more than a million species, we must halt biodiversity loss now, not in 20 or 30 years. If we want to have any chance of keeping global warming to 1.5C, we need to cut emissions by half over the next nine years. That is what the Nobel laureates and other scientists are speaking out about. This isn’t just a matter of raising the volume on the same old data - it is a new juncture. We are running out of time.

    ...

    we have passed three important tipping points: Arctic summer ice, tropical coral reef systems and parts of the west Antarctic have, as far as the latest science shows, reached the point of no return.

    We are also seeing more evidence of a weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) an effect of ice melt from Greenland and the Arctic that reduces the salinity and temperature gradient between warmer salty water flowing north from the equator and colder less salty water in the north atlantic, which in turn slows ocean and atmospheric currents, with impacts on regional climate systems such as the Amazon monsoon. Slower flow of warm waters from south to north, can also explain why the southern ocean is warming so fast, which in turn has led to accelerated melting of the west Antarctic ice sheets. These cascades are a core feature of a potential drift to a hothouse Earth.

    ...

    the forthcoming IPCC 6 (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) assessment, which for the first time will show a change in the climate sensitivity range (the amount of warming projected by computer models if humanity doubles the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere). In the five previous assessments, the IPCC estimated this range would be between 1.5C and 4.5C. In the sixth assessment that will be compacted. The higher point of 4.5C will remain, while the lower point will climb to 2.3C. This means we no longer have a range that goes from a manageable 1.5C to disastrous over 4C. Now the range is from very dangerous (above 2C, which can lead to a hothouse Earth) to catastrophic (over 4C). If we continue as we are, we are very unlikely to remain under 2C in 30 or 40 years.

    ...

    What we see in several of the model inter-comparisons coordinated by the World Climate Research programme is that if we completely halt all greenhouse gas emissions, then the ocean will mop up the damage done to the climate system. That is under the assumption that ocean currents continue operating as now and that there are no further nasty surprises. It would come with very negative secondary effects: long-term ocean acidification, damage to marine life and perturbations of the heat conveyor belt in the ocean. Despite that, overall, I must admit I find it reassuring that the ocean might be able to continue buffering and ultimately clean up.

    ...

    Even after a period of overshoot, of challenging decades of air pollutants and climate extremes, if we can completely phase out greenhouse emissions and go to zero carbon in an absolute sense, then we still have a chance to return within a Holocene-like state.

    ...

    All the cards need to be put on the table. The patient is sick and we must do a transparent diagnosis. We are clearly close to the point that can lead to disaster. A science based fear element is justified and important.

    ...

    In 2018, when Fridays for Future held its first international demonstration in Berlin, I invited Greta to come to the Potsdam Institute to meet our scientists and have a closed-door seminar on the latest climate research. She immediately said yes and I sent an electric car to pick up her and Luisa. Since then, many in the scientific community are informally offering our knowledge to Fridays for Future. They are hungry to learn.

    I am in relatively frequent contact with Greta. I spoke to her this month. She had a session with the Swedish prime minister about a European green deal follow-up and wanted assessments. These are clever young people. Our exchanges are very informal. I do them because I think they are so fantastic and that they can make a real difference.

    ...

    I am also encouraged by the race to decarbonise in the global car industry, which is nothing less than remarkable. Here in Germany, I sit on the sustainability advisory boards both for Daimler lorries and Mercedes-Benz cars. A few years ago, a chief executive would never participate in such meetings now he is here frequently because the key discussion in the company is how to accelerate to net zero. That is what we are seeing across industry. Agriculture is lagging behind, but the debate there is becoming more mature. I am not as optimistic as Mann, but we have shifted the narrative and it is much more aligned with what is needed, namely, that the sustainability across different industries, now is understood as the path to profits and business survival.

    ...

    There is no plausible chance of an absolute zero landing by 2050. There will be a residual of at least 5 gigatonnes of CO2 equivalent a year by 2050, due to methane fluxes, difficult-to-debate sectors, slow transitions in many developing countries and invested assets that cannot be completely stranded.

    ...

    What is disturbing is when a company such as Shell puts out a scenario that it says is compatible with 1.5C and will reach net zero a few years after 2050. At first sight, Shell’s “Sky” scenario looks good, but scratch the surface and you see it is a seductive but completely incorrect analysis. It plans a very slow phase out of emissions, considerable overshoot and then a landing at zero emissions by 2070. It pushes this forward to 2058 by planting trees. That is an example of kicking the can down the road. This is not allowed. We have a responsibility to call out those who use “net” or “magic bullet” technological fixes such as carbon capture and storage and geoengineering to push emission reductions into the future. This has plagued discussion for too long. There has to be more independent and institutionalised ways of scrutinising this and holding commitments to account
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    KEB: hnít česko
    KEB
    KEB --- ---
    PAD: tak ta snaha zalepit prachy uhelným teplarnam není nic jiného než čistý předvolební populismus. Aspoň bude moci tvrdit, jak anofert zachránil lidí před sdrazenim tepla. Ve finále to zaplatíme všichni.

    To že nepredelali uhelné kotelny na plyn už dávno je jen česká snaha to nechat vyhnít, že to nějak dopadne. Nicméně spousta lidí na to uslyší, bohužel.
    PAD
    PAD --- ---
    TADEAS: nj, pravda, v lese je stin:D

    a ano, rosne body dovedou potrapit (vim z vlastni zkusenosti). u nas se RD projektuji dle normy na teploty 16, 20, 24 (schodiste / chodba, obytna mistnost, koupelna, resp) [zdroj: moje matka, energeticky auditor, neoveroval jsem to] u tech rosnych bodu je velmi dulezite spis si pohlidat tepelne mosty, protoze tam se muze skokove snizit teplota lokalne, kde pak voda kondenzuje. kazdopadne 26C apod. opravdu nepotrebujes, pokud je to postavene aspon trochu slusne (napr. bez der ve zdech:))

    6% je oproti kazde dane teplote, takze ti to roste geometricky, tj. 6^(t2-t1). tech 6C je takovy rule of thumb stavebniku (zdroj treba tady: https://vytapeni.tzb-info.cz/8516-uspory-tepla-3-kolik-nas-stoji-vytapeni ) ; ja si intuitivne myslim, ze by to nejak mohlo souviset se zarenim cerneho telesa: https://cs.wikipedia.org/wiki/Absolutn%C4%9B_%C4%8Dern%C3%A9_t%C4%9Bleso#Stefan%C5%AFv%E2%80%93Boltzmann%C5%AFv_z%C3%A1kon (kde ta energie je umerna 4 mocnine teploty, takze je to silne nelinearni). ale je to dlouho, co me bavila fyzika tak, ze jsem si tyhle veci cetl rad, takze rad se necham poucit nekym, kdo to ovlada ...
    YMLADRIS
    YMLADRIS --- ---
    TADEAS: asi nejakej prumerne izolovanej ceskej dum. rika se to tak konzumentum, ze pokud jsi snizil teplotu napr. z 22 na 21, usetril jsi 6 % energie za vytapeni domu. zdroj Hollan
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    PAD: FV panelem v lese toho ten robot moc neudela :)

    ke stavbam - nejsem stavebnik, ale treba ve drevostavbe se ti pod nejakou teplotu bude kondenzovat voda na oknech, ta stavba bude rychleji degradovat.

    odkud je tech 6%, 6% oproti cemu?
    PAD
    PAD --- ---
    TADEAS: to je pravda, prosel jsem 6 ti ruznymi domy, slusne postaveny byl jen jeden - oni ale jsou proste zvykli mene topit obecne (i dobre zateplene domy), protoze historicky nikdy neresili riziko opravdoveho umrznuti (v zime tam jde teplota vyjimecne k nule, pod nulu temer nikdy, rozvody vody maji vne domu, ...). druha vec je, ze casto topi kerosinem, coz je drahe (krome mnoha dalsich nevyhod). nicmene myslenka byla: kdyz i jinde mohou lidi spokojene zit v domech vytapenych do 20C, proc by to neslo u nas? kazdy stupen je 6% emisi navic. ted budou vsichni brecet, ze teplo zdrazi kvuli povolenkam a Havlicek uz uz specha, aby zase vymyslel nejaky sofisticky schema, na zaklade nehoz posle antidotace na podporu krachujiciho byznysu s uhlim, protoze proc? protoze se boji lidem rict, aby si obcas oblekli svetr/ponozky?:))
    TADEAS: uplne jsem si to predstavil, jak vyjev z postapo deep-ecology survivalism utopie;D [v praxi by ale asi bylo jednodussi toho robota krmit FV panelem]
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    The Time Has Come to Rein In the Global Scourge of Palm Oil - Yale E360
    https://e360.yale.edu/features/the-time-has-come-to-rein-in-the-global-scourge-of-palm-oil

    The cultivation of palm oil, found in roughly half of U.S. grocery products, has devastated tropical ecosystems, released vast amounts of C02 into the atmosphere, and impoverished rural communities. But efforts are underway that could curb the abuses of this powerful industry.

    ...

    Big Palm Oil will undoubtedly push back — in 2019, the World Health Organization compared the tactics used by the $65 billion industry to those employed by the tobacco and alcohol lobbies — but if there were ever a time for governments to stand their ground, now is that time. Last week, the International Energy Administration reported that to have any chance of meeting the temperature target set in the Paris accord, investment in fossil fuel supply projects has to cease immediately. We also need to slam the brakes on tropical deforestation. Ripping out an entire nation’s oil-palm acreage, as Sri Lanka is doing, may not be the most practical way to solve our intertwined climate, biodiversity, and health crises, but it’s a step in the right direction.
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    z fb https://m.facebook.com/groups/2023967384336650/permalink/4058599990873369/

    K sezonnímu skladování, resp. scénáři 100% zásobení z OZE máte něco tady. Je to společný scénář pro ČR a SK, vypracovaný finskou Lappeenranta-Lahti University of Technology.

    (detaily ke skladování na slajdech 10 a 11)

    (PDF) Global 100% RE System: Europe - Czech Republic, Slovakia
    https://www.researchgate.net/publication/320776549_Global_100_RE_System_Europe_-_Czech_Republic_Slovakia

    Kromě zmíněných technologií P2G (mimochodem pěkně popsáno na wiki: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Power-to-gas) bych určitě uvažoval i P2H, resp. Carnotovy baterie.

    Hezký článek v češtině zde:

    Skladování elektřiny prostřednictvím tepla aneb Carnotovy baterie 1. díl – principy a přehled - TZB-info
    https://oze.tzb-info.cz/akumulace-elektriny/21610-skladovani-elektriny-prostrednictvim-tepla-aneb-carnotovy-baterie-1-dil-principy-a-prehled

    ...a zde:

    Skladování elektřiny prostřednictvím tepla aneb Carnotovy baterie 2. díl – projekty a technologie ve světě a v ČR - TZB-info
    https://oze.tzb-info.cz/akumulace-elektriny/21727-skladovani-elektriny-prostrednictvim-tepla-aneb-carnotovy-baterie-2-dil-projekty-a-technologie-ve-svete-a-v-cr

    Za přečtení stojí i starší shrnutí od Broňka Bechníka:

    Možnosti akumulace elektřiny z širšího pohledu - TZB-info
    https://oze.tzb-info.cz/akumulace-elektriny/12195-moznosti-akumulace-elektriny-z-sirsiho-pohledu

    Mimochodem novinky ohledně European Hydrogen Backbone jste též možná zaznamenal: https://www.reuters.com/business/sustainable-business/europe-could-operate-40000-km-hydrogen-pipelines-by-2040-operators-2021-04-13/

    Technologie stlačeného vzduchu se také začíná dostávat na zajímavé kapacity:

    World's largest compressed air grid "batteries" will store up to 10GWh
    https://newatlas.com/energy/hydrostor-compressed-air-energy-storage/
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    TADEAS:

    XR 11: Less is More with Jason Hickel
    https://youtu.be/Q_GFMFOdOSk
    OMNIHASH
    OMNIHASH --- ---
    TADEAS: irsko staví stejně debilně jako anglie... a nemůžou nic, maximálně celej Dublin zavíst 15m vrstvou navážky a začít znovu a lépe.
    KEB
    KEB --- ---
    PAD:
    PAD: v paneláku se to vyrobí tak nějak samo a pak to drží. Pro lepší představu nemáme vlastní měřák na topení, ale rozpočítáva se to rovným dílem mezi byty, takže ten přeplatek mají všichni.

    Ale co je plýtvání je svícení vnitřních prostor. Soudruzi prostě s denním světlem nepočítali. Sice je všechno v diodách, ale i tak.

    Předseda představenstva říkal že by klidně šel do fotovoltaiky nebo šedé vody atd, ale že to ti co mají hluboko do kapsy typicky důchodci vždycky zablokují. Pro ně jsou to zbytečně minute prachy a příliš abstraktní záležitost, bohužel.
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    PAD: trh se drevem je posledni dobou silenej, tqkze chvili ti za stepku nekdo plati, chvili platis za odvoz ty.

    z hlediska ty energetickomaterialovy kalkulace je idealni pokud se ze dreva neco postavi a tim se uhlik fixuje v podobe ty stavby.

    co se tyce otevirani lesu a pretvareni na grolesnicky systemy, predstavuju si masinu, ktera se krmi zbytkama dreva, jede ja drevoplyn, spaluje drvo na dreveny uhli, micha s vodou a inokuluje mikroorgabismama, micha s travnim semenem a rozmetava po okoli. par mesicu v zavesu jdou kravy :)
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    PAD: musis to posuzovat vuci tepelnejm ztratam ty budovy, jestli je irsko kamen nebo papundekl, tak to tam ani vytopit nemuzou, ten zateplenej panelak na tom bude dobre :)
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    Our Planet, Our Future – First Academic Science Session
    https://youtu.be/mogdhDEtm6E


    Full version of the first of two academic science sessions during the Nobel Prize Summit 2021. Designed for Nobel Prize Laureates and other scientific experts, the science sessions focused on the role of science in supporting transformations towards global sustainability and resilient societies.

    Contributions included HRH Crown Princess Victoria of Sweden, Carl Folke, Jane Lubchenco, Partha Dasgupta, Pamela Matson and the three editors-in-chiefs of Nature, Science and the Lancet.

    The Nobel Prize Summit 2021 brough together Nobel Prize laureates, scientists, policymakers, business leaders, and youth leaders to explore what can be achieved to put the world on a path to a more sustainable, more prosperous future for all of humanity.
    PAD
    PAD --- ---
    PAD: pry cca 6% / 1 st. C ( https://vytapeni.tzb-info.cz/8516-uspory-tepla-3-kolik-nas-stoji-vytapeni ), takze rozdil z 20 na 26 muze byt okolo 40%. pisu to proto, ze jsou ted media prave plna toho, jak bude teplarenstvi v krizi ... no, a ja si myslim, ze v krizi bude spis tenhle (post) komunisticky pristup k vytapeni, kdy vytapime zbytecne moc. zazil jsem sok, kdyz jsem se prestehoval do Irska a tam bezne vytapeli jen nektere mistonosti a to jen par hodin rano a par vecer. prumer byl okolo 15C kdyz dobre. tohle je i pro me extrem, ale tech ceskych 26 je fakt rozmazlenost. ..
    PAD
    PAD --- ---
    KEB: promin, jestli se te to dotklo - nemel jsem si brat panelaky na paskal. zrovna tak vim o mnoha domech v okoli, kde lidi vytapi (bez izolace) na 26, protoze drevo maji zadarmo nebo velmi levne. chtel jsem jen rict, ze zdroj je jen jedna strana rovnice. rozdil pri vytapeni na 20 a na 26 je obrovsky, kdo neveri, at si to zkusi zmerit jednu zimu. zateplene panelaky mohou byt ve skutecnosti velmi efektivni, protoze se teplo sdili, ale porad tam bude obrovsky rozdil mezi vytapenim na 20 a 26.

    drevo muze byt v dlouhem obdobi nizkoemisni (schvalne nepisu bezemisni, protoze benzin do pil, doprava, atp). ale jako se vsim zalezi na detailech.
    OMNIHASH
    OMNIHASH --- ---
    KEB: když ten les ztěžíš,tak asi jo...největší oser a pracnost je to natahat na ty hromady někde u cesty, já dělal u pily se štěpkovačkou a stejně se jim to nevyplatilo drtit.
    KEB
    KEB --- ---
    OMNIHASH: u nás jsem viděl vytěžený les, klesti na hromadě a malej drapák to nakládal na menší náklaďák a vozil pryč. Asi se to někomu vyplatilo, ale kam ti vozil to netuším.

    Co z toho dělat pelety to by se mohlo rentovat líp jak štěpka nebo ne?
    KEB
    KEB --- ---
    PAD: ty vole už zase, to s těmi paneláky vytápěnými na 26 to je nějaká místní obsese domkářů? Nebo je to závist domkářů, že v zimě mrznete abyste neprotopili majlant?

    Pokud je panelák zateplený, tak v něm těch 26 v zimě drží bez nějakých problémů. Kolem 25i máme celou zimu a za celou zimu jsem pustil topení 2x. Opět jako každý rok máme přeplatek v tisících. Navíc pokud byly paneláky co k čemu, tak se udělaly pro sebe, protože vlastní kotelna vychází finančně mnohonásobně líp než centrální vytop.

    Ne paneláky za tohle opravdu nemůžou, může za to ten co řekl že dřevo je uhlíkově neutrální.
    Kliknutím sem můžete změnit nastavení reklam