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    TUHOKlimaticka zmena / Thank you so much for ruining my day


    "Given the sheer enormity of climate change, it’s okay to be depressed, to grieve. But please, don’t stay there too long. Join me in pure, unadulterated, righteous anger."


    "I don’t want your hope. I don’t want you to be hopeful. I want you to panic. I want you to feel the fear I feel every day. And then I want you to act. Once you start to act, the hope is everywhere."

    "Our best scientists tell us insistently that a calamity is unfolding, that the life-support systems of the Earth are being damaged in ways that threaten our survival. Yet in the face of these facts we carry on as usual."

    “We’ve got to stop burning fossil fuels. So many aspects of life depend on fossil fuels, except for music and love and education and happiness. These things, which hardly use fossil fuels, are what we must focus on.”

    A nejde o to, že na to nemáme dostatečné technologie, ty by na řešení použít šly, ale chybí nám vůle a představivost je využít. Zůstáváme při zemi, přemýšlíme až moc rezervovaně. Technologický pokrok to sám o sobě nevyřeší. Problém jsme my, ne technologické nástroje.

    Rostouci hladiny oceanu, zmena atmosferickeho proudeni, zmeny v distribuci srazek a sucha. Zmeny karbonoveho, fosforoveho a dusikoveho cyklu, okyselovani oceanu. Jake jsou bezpecnostni rizika a jake potencialni klady dramatickych zmen fungovani zemskeho systemu?
    Ale take jak funguji masove dezinformacni kampane ropneho prumyslu a boj o verejne mineni na prahu noveho klimatickeho rezimu post-holocenu.
    rozbalit záhlaví
    SHEFIK
    SHEFIK --- ---
    #addon TADEAS

    Voda z tajících grónských ledovců zamořuje pobřeží rtutí. V oblasti přitom není průmysl - Ekolist.cz
    https://ekolist.cz/cz/zpravodajstvi/zpravy/voda-z-tajicich-gronskych-ledovcu-zamoruje-pobrezi-rtuti

    Z tajících grónských ledovců se do řek a fjordů uvolňuje velké množství rtuti. Vysoké koncentrace tohoto těžkého kovu v tamních vodách mohou mít za následek hromadění rtuti v potravním řetězci. Zjistila to nová studie zveřejněná v žurnálu Nature Geoscience. Grónsko je přitom největším vývozcem mořských plodů a v okolních vodách se nacházejí vzácné mořské ekosystémy.

    Hodnoty rtuti ve třech ledovcových řekách a třech fjordech, které vědci měřili, jsou nejvyšší v celé historii měření. Jsou dokonce srovnatelné s hodnotami naměřenými v průmyslem znečištěných čínských řekách. Již před časem některé studie upozorňovaly, že se z tajících ledovců uvolňuje do prostředí rtuť, nynější měření ale ukazují hodnoty o dva řády vyšší než se předpokládalo.
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    who cares

    Arctic sea ice thinning twice as fast as thought, study finds | Arctic | The Guardian
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/04/arctic-sea-ice-thinning-twice-as-fast-as-thought-study-finds

    “Sea ice has begun forming later and later in the year, so the snow on top has less time to accumulate,” said Mallett. “Our calculations account for this declining snow depth for the first time.” The research is published in the journal The Cryosphere.

    “We are still learning about the changes to the Arctic environment, and one of the big unknowns – or less well-knowns – is snow cover,” said Walt Meier, at the US National Snow and Ice Data Center, and not involved in the new research. “The approach in the study is a significant improvement over older methods, and the results fit with other changes we’re seeing with Arctic sea ice, including earlier melt onset, lower summer ice cover, and later freeze-up.”

    ...

    Prof Julienne Stroeve, at UCL, said: “There are [still] a number of uncertainties but we believe our new calculations are a major step forward. We hope this work can be used to improve climate models that forecast the effects of long-term climate change in the Arctic – a region that is warming at three times the global rate and whose ice is essential for keeping the planet cool.”

    TC - Faster decline and higher variability in the sea ice thickness of the marginal Arctic seas when accounting for dynamic snow cover
    https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/15/2429/2021/
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    JIMIQ: Aha, ne tak kecam. Mas pravdu ty (spatne jsem si to prelozil)
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    JIMIQ: 150gw (+95 gw vetru)
    JIMIQ
    JIMIQ --- ---
    PAD: wow! 100GW solaru behem 9,5 roku, dost husty
    PAD
    PAD --- ---
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    TADEAS:

    Kai Heron
    https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1400799563292811267.html


    Brazil on drought alert, faces worst dry spell in 91 years | Successful Farming
    https://www.agriculture.com/markets/newswire/update-2-brazil-on-drought-alert-faces-worst-dry-spell-in-91-years

    3 Big Things Today, June 2, 2021 | Successful Farming
    https://www.agriculture.com/news/three-big-things/3-big-things-today-june-2-2021

    The situation isn’t looking good. Already this year farmers from Canada to California have experienced droughts and the US’ soy growing states have been been hit hard. So guess what? The price of soy is rising.

    ...

    As the climate crisis escalates, it’s not hard to imagine droughts hitting Brazil and the US simultaneously, devastating corn and soy yields, and sending food prices spiralling upwards.

    Recall that the Arab Spring was in part initiated by rising food prices – by a crisis in labour's reproduction within the circuits of capital – to get a sense of where this can go.

    That’s one thread we can pull on. One series of tentacular relations. There are others. One is that the drought has reduced Brazil’s hydropower capacity to such an extent that the country is importing natural gas to cover the deficit. -- https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Brazils-Worst-Drought-In-91-Years-Is-Good-News-For-LNG.amp.html

    That’s more carbon produced in transnational shipping and logistics, more GHGs burned, more global heating, more droughts, more food insecurity. Meanwhile, Bolsonaro is trying to create a favourable regulative environment for the fossil fuel industry.

    Another thread is that this drought has been worsened by the very process that made Brazil one of the world’s largest producers of corn and soy in the first place: aggressive deforestation and the forceful removal of Indigenous peoples and wildlife.

    Rainforests *create* precipitation. Rainforest loss means less rain, means lower crop yields, means a crisis in labour’s reproduction, a crisis in profitability for capital, soaring food insecurity, potential social upheavals, and so on. Elliptical.
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    Global food prices post biggest jump in decade
    https://amp.ft.com/content/8b5f4b4d-cbf8-4269-af2c-c94063197bbb

    Global food prices have surged by the biggest margin in a decade, as one closely watched index jumped 40 per cent in May, heightening fears that the inflation initially stoked by pandemic disruption was accelerating.

    ...

    The world’s consumer price inflation for food has already jumped 6.3 per cent in 2020, up from 4.6 per cent in 2019, according to the FAO as the pandemic played havoc with global supply chains, affecting the production and distribution of food. South America, with 21 per cent food price inflation, Africa and South Asia with 12 per cent and Oceania with 8 per cent were among the most affected regions.

    The latest jump in food commodity prices reflected China’s soaring appetite for grain and soyabeans is adding to upward pressure on prices, along with a severe drought in Brazil and growing demand for vegetable oil for biodiesel, said analysts.
    SHEFIK
    SHEFIK --- ---
    TUHO: myslim ze hlubsi diskuze by byla zajmava, ale sem uz to nepatri :)
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    TADEAS:

    Opinion | A 50-Year Farm Bill - The New York Times
    https://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/05/opinion/05berry.html
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    U.S.-Sponsored Big Agriculture Is Leading to Ecological Collapse
    https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/05/17/big-industrialized-agriculture-climate-change-earth-systems-ecological-collapse-policy/

    Industrial agriculture simplifies ecosystems, rendering us more vulnerable to threats. Transformative policies will be required to pull us back from the edge. As a start, the United States could set an example for the Global North with a 50-year farm bill.

    The bill would promote ecosystem diversification and increased resilience by reducing acreage of annual grain crops from 70 percent to 10 percent or less of all cropland while scaling up perennial crops to 80 percent of farmland. The remaining 10 percent would be allocated to other crops, including a diverse array of locally produced vegetables and fruits. Soil and water-conserving perennial varieties of rice, wheat, legumes, and other food-grain crops—which are now being developed—could serve as components of diverse, perennial, multispecies communities of food crops that replicate how nature functions. The bill would promote a transition to smaller, more diverse farm operations as agricultural diversification will work most effectively not on vast, uniform acreages but as mosaics made up of many modest-sized farms.

    ...

    As Candide stresses, it is vital to move away from abstract, monocultural arguments proposing business-as-usual as the best practice for all toward more practical work in more locally attuned, diversified agricultures that respect limits—both ecological and human. It is time to scale down agriculture and enhance our resilience to coming disruptions. The transitions will not be easy. We do not yet live in the best of all worlds, but things can be otherwise than as they are. We will need new agricultures and new policies to support them abroad and at home. Let us cultivate our gardens.
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    TUHO: The world’s total, direct energy sector subsidies – including those to
    fossil fuels, renewables and nuclear power – are estimated to have been at least USD 634 billion in 2017. These were dominated by subsidies to fossil fuels, which account for around 70% (USD 447 billion) of the total. Subsidies to renewable power generation technologies account for around
    20 % of total energy sector subsidies (USD 128 billion), biofuels for about 6 % (USD 38 billion) and nuclear for at least 3 % (USD 21 billion).
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    In 2017, the costs of unpriced externalities and the direct subsidies for fossil fuels (USD 3.1
    trillion) exceeded subsidies for renewable energy by a factor of 19.

    https://www.irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2020/Apr/IRENA_Energy_subsidies_2020.pdf
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    TUHO: aneb "we are fucking fucked"

    since Paris, $3 trillion have been lent to the coal and oil & gas industry since the Paris Agreement was signed, of which $750 billion in the last year alone. The quantum of capital that's been lent by banks like JP Morgan Chase has gone up. It hasn't gone down. It's gone up. Our own research shows that fossil fuel companies have raised nearly 10 times more capital than renewable energy companies in the last decade or so through public markets in the form of IPOs.
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    TUHO: Yes. It is the proven financial consequences of our research that was crucial. There was just such ignorance and cynicism among investors of coal, oil and gas companies. Regulators were not on top of their game and investors weren't understanding the risks. So we thought, let's change mindsets. Let's get regulators understanding the systemic risks of climate change. And let's get the shareholders of these companies thinking about what they could be doing better.
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    In the late 90s and early 2000s, with my good friend and co-founder Nick Robins, we started asking simple questions: What happens if Exxon and Shell and all the other companies were to burn all their reserves? How much would that increase atmospheric CO2? And how much would the planet warm by? After years of looking, we just couldn't find anybody who had done that research. So we pulled the analysis together ourselves.

    In essence, we found that there's enough proven reserves already in the world today to take us way past four degrees of warming – and one and a half degrees is the threshold the science tells us we shouldn't exceed. So, this “unburnable carbon” creates what we call “stranded assets”. We describe it as a carbon bubble, a massive overhang of unusable fossil fuels, that has financial consequences for financial regulators and for investors.

    We’re Living Through A Carbon Bubble—Here’s What We Can Do About It
    https://www.forbes.com/sites/ashoka/2021/03/26/were-living-through-a-carbon-bubble--heres-what-we-can-do-about-it/?sh=3b94da581b62
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    Carbon bubble?

    - Already in 2011, the world has used over a third of its 50-year carbon budget of 886GtCO2, leaving 565GtCO2

    - All of the proven reserves owned by private and public companies and governments are equivalent to 2,795 GtCO2

    - Fossil fuel reserves owned by the top 100 listed coal and top 100 listed oil and gas companies represent total emissions of 745GtCO2

    - Only 20% of the total reserves can be burned unabated, leaving up to 80% of assets technically unburnable

    Unburnable Carbon: Are the World's Financial Markets Carrying a Carbon Bubble? - Carbon Tracker Initiative
    https://carbontracker.org/reports/carbon-bubble/
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    TUHO: mimo to je otazka, jak by stabilita klimatu a stav ekosystemu mely byt ustavne zakotveny, coz by se odrwzelo i v roli techle instituci. a vpastne nevim, jakej vztah ma parizska dohoda k ustave? je ji nadrazena jako nejaka mezinarodni smlouva?
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    SHEFIK: Ne, takovejch dokuemntu nejsou tisice. IPCC je globalni autorita, ktera sdruzuje vedce z celyho sveta, ktery delaj obri resersi soucasnyho vedeckyho poznani a venuje tisice clovekohodin nejlepsich mozku sveta, aby zmackla doporuceni do par srozumitelnejch stran pro policymakery.

    Pokud to policymakeri nejsou schopny udelat, tak je to znamka uplne bazalni pohrdani vedou, ci neorientace a ignorance. Coz jsou vlastnosti, ktery mi prijde, ze jsou mezi ekonomomama dost rozsireny .]]

    Ad kralovna: ekonomie je plna totalniho axiomatickyho bullshitu, ktery si vymysleli gentlemani u sklenky whisky, zatimco je obskakovalo sluzebnictvo. Pulka jejich teorii je nekonzistentni matematicky, druha je vyvracena antropologii a etnografii. Ale ekonomove zhusta ostatni vedy nectou, takze o tom nevi a tak spokojene vymejvaj mozky dalsim a dalsim generacim nebohejch studentu ekonomie .]]

    Jinak o problematice vycislovani mas samozrjeme pravdu, nicmene treba takovej neoklasickej mainstream to resi elegantne - tvari se, ze vycislit jdou a tim to hasne .]]

    Ad optimum: problem je, ze neexistuje nic jako jedno "optimum". Pri nejlepsi snaze muzem mluvit o multidimenzionalni krajine, kde jsou rozesety lokalni optima v zavislosti na ruznejch cilech a potrebach, politickejch preferencich, technologickejch moznostech, klimatickejch a ekosytemovejch vlivech etc.
    SHEFIK
    SHEFIK --- ---
    Ono my to optimum ve vysledku nasledujeme, ale ta cesta jeho neustala konvergence a divergence - viz stridani politickejch stran (nebo bankeru x aktivistu). Pri odzoomovani ale lidstvo koreluje s nejakou optimalizacni krivkou, v nekterych castech sveta rychleji, v nekterych pomaleji.

    Tenhle stret nazoru, expertiz, specializace atd. je ale pro dlouhodobe dosahovani toho optima zadouci.
    SHEFIK
    SHEFIK --- ---
    TUHO: rozumim kam miris. problem je, ze takovejch dokumentu sou tisice. Prob by meli vsichni cist zrovna tenhle a ne jinej? Tady si asi muzeme poplacat po zadech, ze argument zname, ale ze nekdo neco nevi, ho nedela negramotnym. Predpokladam, ze taky nevis vsecko

    Co se tyka wanabe kralovny, to neni zadna poza. Nas zivot je uzce spojenej s tim, jak dokazeme sami sebe nasytit /maaslowova hierarchie potreb/, a proto ten opernej bod je v ekonomii. Ten problem, na kterej narazis je imho jinde - ze nektery veci se velmi spatne vycislujou, jelikoz sou bud komplexni/multifaktorialni a jejich vliv tezko modelovatelnej, nebo moc fuzzy. Proto se jako prvni zahrnou vzdycky ty nejsnaze vycislitelny faktory. Proto mame levici a pravici a pak ruzny nazorovy podskupiny, eko frakce zelenejch... nikdo neumi oojmout veskerou komplexitu naseho sveta.

    Bejt vsecko snadno vycislitelny a modelovatelny, nemusime se ridit nazory a dojmy, ale muzeme velmi snadno nasledovat optimum.
    Kliknutím sem můžete změnit nastavení reklam