• úvod
  • témata
  • události
  • tržiště
  • diskuze
  • nástěnka
  • přihlásit
    registrace
    ztracené heslo?
    TUHOKlimaticka zmena / Thank you so much for ruining my day


    "Given the sheer enormity of climate change, it’s okay to be depressed, to grieve. But please, don’t stay there too long. Join me in pure, unadulterated, righteous anger."


    "I don’t want your hope. I don’t want you to be hopeful. I want you to panic. I want you to feel the fear I feel every day. And then I want you to act. Once you start to act, the hope is everywhere."

    "Our best scientists tell us insistently that a calamity is unfolding, that the life-support systems of the Earth are being damaged in ways that threaten our survival. Yet in the face of these facts we carry on as usual."

    “We’ve got to stop burning fossil fuels. So many aspects of life depend on fossil fuels, except for music and love and education and happiness. These things, which hardly use fossil fuels, are what we must focus on.”

    A nejde o to, že na to nemáme dostatečné technologie, ty by na řešení použít šly, ale chybí nám vůle a představivost je využít. Zůstáváme při zemi, přemýšlíme až moc rezervovaně. Technologický pokrok to sám o sobě nevyřeší. Problém jsme my, ne technologické nástroje.

    Rostouci hladiny oceanu, zmena atmosferickeho proudeni, zmeny v distribuci srazek a sucha. Zmeny karbonoveho, fosforoveho a dusikoveho cyklu, okyselovani oceanu. Jake jsou bezpecnostni rizika a jake potencialni klady dramatickych zmen fungovani zemskeho systemu?
    Ale take jak funguji masove dezinformacni kampane ropneho prumyslu a boj o verejne mineni na prahu noveho klimatickeho rezimu post-holocenu.
    rozbalit záhlaví
    L4MA
    L4MA --- ---
    TADEAS: bez "Nazi Germany holocaust jews" by to nebylo vonco... :D
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    don't feel doomish, but roger this hallam


    Roger Hallam
    https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1553133892860878848.html

    It is a week since the highest temperatures in thousands of years hit the UK.

    It is now an objective reality that this civilisation will collapse at some point in the early 2030s. Long tail possibilities are the late 2020’s and the late 2030’s on the other side.

    Why? Forget global averages 1.5C, 2C – that’s all political distraction. What will bring down the system is physical and biological HARD STOPS and the compounding secondary effects cascading through the system.

    These are objective. Like putting a bullet through someone’s brain. They die. They have nothing to do with social predictions – i.e. complex systems. This is Newtonian cause and effect.

    The key is to look at extreme weather events over the next 20 years. The most important stats are the progressions of the recent past projected into the near future. Record high temperatures are going up by approximately .5C a year e.g. 2019 – 38C 2022 40C in the UK.

    We can do a linear projection therefore that the UK will hit up to 45C heat by 2030 and 50C by 2040 – this is the cool temperate zone scenario.

    Project that onto the warm temperate areas where it is now 45C to 50C (Portugal 47C, Scilly 49C), and we can project up to 55C by 2030 and 60C by 2040. In tropical areas where the present limit is around 55C at present we are looking at 60C by 2030 and 65C by 2040.

    Of course there are good reasons to argue that the yearly average increases will be exponential, not linear, particularly as the #Arctic ice will be melted in the summer around 2030/35 according to peer reviewed papers. These then are conservative projections.

    Moving up the normal distribution curve, let’s say each zone will experience 30 plus days of temperatures around 5C less than the record high temperature each year.

    Okay go and do the maths on the following hard stops – these have come from news stories over the past few weeks:

    - You cannot fly a plane at temperatures over 48C
    - You die within 6 hours at humid temperatures of 50C
    - Major rivers dry up at 40C – (think transport routes)
    - Internet centres cannot function over 35C
    - Roads, runways, railway tracks and wiring melt at 40C
    - Most food crops cannot grow and die at temperatures over 30C

    Add in other predictions from the past few years:

    - Vietnam will be periodically 90% under water within decades (think rice production)
    - Indian wheat production will be 30% down by 2030
    - The US costal property price bubble will burst at some point in the mid to late 2020s
    - 20% of Australian forest on average will burn down by 2040
    - 30% of London houses will be subsiding by mid century
    - Lakes in the US West will be empty by the late 2020’s
    - The Amazon will pass the 20-25% cut down tipping point into collapse within the next 10 years
    - 20% plus, the US western regions will be burning each year by the mid 2030s.

    Some of these predictions are messy and certainty fetish scientists, co-opted by the system, will find holes in them like holocaust deniers find holes in the assessment that 6 million jews died in Nazi Germany (maybe it was 5.5?).

    These lines of argument have nothing to do with clear cool risk analysis and everything to do with another determinism: the psychological literature shows that most people cannot accept what they do not like.

    By the 2030’s this civilisation will be gone, in the sense that regimes in the tropics will have collapsed, and those in warm and cold temperate zones will have become either right wing or left wing state socialist enterprises.

    This state socialism has nothing to do with politics – it is what happens in societies facing existential breakdown.


    Carbon rationing and then rationing of everything else is inevitable. Functional regimes will be putting all their surplus resources into geo engineering. Disfunctional ones will be collapsing into various cults of nihilism and thus disintegration.

    If there is a future, it will now be post-nature. That is a future where the whole geo-physical system is controlled by human technologies – just as happened with agriculture systems over the past half century. We are prisoners of our technologies.


    There is a research job here for some people to collect all the predictions and do projections in a more systematic way – get in touch with me if you can do this.

    The absolute imperative now is #CivilResistance to ensure that the transition to what comes next is democratic and egalitarian rather than fascist and genocidal.

    If we fail, our young people will experience terrible deaths before they reach middle age. Face your responsibilities at this time.
    PER2
    PER2 --- ---
    Las Vegas, NM declares emergency, with less than 50 days of clean water supply left
    Wildfires earlier this year contaminated the city's only water supply.

    PER2
    PER2 --- ---
    TADEAS: tohle mi pripomnelo starej dokument, kde se bavili s potapecema, co se potapeli treba pred 60 lety a dnes, ze se to neda absolutne porovnat, ze to co je dnes ve vode, je spis poust, ale kdyz tam prijede turista, tak je z toho nadsenej jak je to krasny, pac nema tuseni jak to vypadalo driv ...

    imho timhle: "Shifting Baseline Syndrome" trpime uplne vsichni ....
    SHEFIK
    SHEFIK --- ---
    #positive

    Sorry, mesic stary, ale hodnota btc he plus minus stejna

    S poklesem ceny Bitcoinu klesla o 36 % i spotřeba elektřiny pro jeho těžbu | Svět hardware
    https://www.svethardware.cz/s-poklesem-ceny-bitcoinu-klesla-o-36-i-spotreba-elektriny-pro-jeho-tezbu/58038

    Výše uvedená čísla jsou pochopitelně odhady a studie předpokládá, že nynější odběr je někde mezi 5,74 a 17,99 GW, oněch 10,31 GW je pak nejpravděpodobnější odhad.

    Když si to spočítáme, vychází to i po tomto výrazném pádu na roční odběr 90,34 TWh, což překračuje spotřebu celé ČR. Pokud bychom to měli přepočítat na osobní elektromobily, pak by to bylo zhruba 30 milionů vozů (tedy osobní vozový park 5 ČR).
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    Are You Suffering From Shifting Baseline Syndrome?  | Earth.Org
    https://earth.org/shifting-baseline-syndrome/

    On an individual level, SBS has increased our tolerance to environmental degradation, including wildlife population decline, increased pollution and loss of natural habitats. This is because people will evaluate the severity of environmental degradation by referencing it back to their own cognitive baseline. In the UK, George Monbiot summarises the state of conservation, saying, “conservation in this country has become indistinguishable from destruction because what we’re conserving is an ecocidal system of sheep ranching. Sheep eat everything, and as a result, there’s no birds, no insects. We’ve lost almost everything, and yet we regard that as normal and natural.” In the UK people are actively conserving ecologically desolate ecosystems as they have no reference to past British wilderness.

    At a societal level, this unawareness of past environmental conditions or current rates of degradation has implications for policymakers. For example, in the UK, the Environment Act of 1995 (the original legislation for National Parks was introduced in 1949) revised the legislation stating the statutory purpose for National Parks. Their main goal is to ‘conserve and enhance the natural beauty, wildlife and cultural heritage’. Those who introduced this legislation originally had a perception of ‘natural beauty, wildlife, and cultural heritage’, and so current National Park conservation practise is driven by a static perception, despite itself studying a subject of constant dynamism. When National Parks were originally established they were characterised by traditional agriculture. While this may seem insignificant the inclusion of ‘cultural heritage’ protects agriculture as part of the landscape, despite its environmental impact. Therefore the conservation approach in these areas can be described as unambitious as they maintain what is simply there or set targets that are not inclusive of historical data and trends. However, people are satisfied because the landscape looks the same as when the legislation was introduced
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    Carl Sagan testifying before Congress in 1985 on climate change
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wp-WiNXH6hI
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    TUHO: In a 1993 study on Soviet climate science, US scientists found that “the Soviets were among the leaders […] in the 1960s” in developing theoretical models of complex systems such as atmospheric circulation (Ellingson et al. 1993, p. I-4). In the early 1970s, US-Geographer Paul E. Lydolph (Lydolph, 1971, p. 637) concluded that climatology “has been developed to such a degree in the Soviet Union that it warrants a special study” and estimating that “perhaps half of the climatological literature published in the world” was “written by Soviet climatologists”. Throughout the 1970s and 1980s, Soviet climatologists’ achievements in general climatology, radiation, heat balance and agroclimatology made them attractive partners in international collaborations, such as the 1972 bilateral US-USSR agreement on scientific cooperation in environmental protection (Doose 2021). Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, however, their expertise did not keep pace with international climate science, and they somewhat disappeared from the global climate science scene, as witnessed by the rejection of their methodology in the first assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) published in 1990. They only started to regain ground in the early 2000s.
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    TUHO: Jeste neco kontextu ke klimatickym modelum, studene valce a Sovetskemu svazu

    Climate models are what governments, experts and societies base their decisions on future climate action on. To show how different models were used to explain climatic changes and to project future climates before the emergence of a global consensus on the validity of general circulation models, this article focuses on the attempt of Soviet climatologists and their government to push for their climate model to be acknowledged by the international climate science community. It argues that Soviet climate sciences as well as their interpretations of the climate of the twenty-first century were products of the Cold War, and that the systematic lack of access to high-speed computers forced Soviet climatologists to use simpler climate reconstructions as analogues, with far-reaching consequences for climate sciences in post-Soviet Russia. By juxtaposing the history of Soviet climate modelling with the early history of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change, which rejected the Soviet model, the article sheds light on the relationship of science and politics. The findings are based on archival and print material as well as on interviews.

    Modelling the future: climate change research in Russia during the late Cold War and beyond, 1970s–2000 | SpringerLink
    https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-022-03315-0
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    TADEAS: level "nestihnul jsem se naucit na zkousku, musel jsem sedet v hospode"
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    Jinak tip na cteni na vikend:

    The technosphere metabolizes not only energy and materials, but information and knowledge as well. This article first examines the history of knowledge about large-scale, long-term, anthropogenic environmental change. In the 19th and 20th centuries, major systems were built for monitoring both the environment and human activity of all kinds, for modeling geophysical processes such as climate change, and for preserving and refining scientific memory, i.e. data about the planetary past. Despite many failures, these knowledge infrastructures also helped achieve notable successes such as the Limited Test Ban Treaty of 1963, the ozone depletion accords of the 1980s, and the Paris Agreement on climate change of 2015. The article’s second part proposes that knowledge infrastructures for the Anthropocene might not only monitor and model the technosphere’s metabolism of energy, materials and information, but also integrate those techniques with new accounting practices aimed at sustainability. Scientific examples include remarkable recent work on long-term socio-ecological research, and the assessment reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. In terms of practical knowledge, one key to effective accounting may be ‘recycling’ of the vast amounts of ‘waste’ data created by virtually all online systems today. Examples include dramatic environmental efficiency gains by Ikea and United Parcel Service, through improved logistics, self-provision of renewable energy, and feedback from close monitoring of delivery trucks. Blending social ‘data exhaust’ with physical and environmental information, an environmentally focused logistics might trim away excess energy and materials in production, find new ways to re-use or recycle waste, and generate new ideas for eliminating toxic byproducts, greenhouse gas emissions and other metabolites.

    https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/2053019616679854
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    GLOBETROTTER: To ja nevim, ale co rika Shefik mi dava smysl. Ja ziu na vesnici a iluze si moc nedelam, povoleny jsou na prutok potoka dve cisticky. Cisticek je tady odhadem tricet a kazdej rok pribyvaj tak odhadem 3. Je to sice pokrok, protoze uz v potoce necejtis avivaz, kdyz sousedi perou, ale to co zbylo z vysychajiciho potoka je zarostly zelenym rasovitym slemem.
    Kazdopadne priciny muzou bejt bezpochyby ruzny, kdyby mel nekdo blizsi informace nez to co je na Echu, bylo by to hezke :)
    SHEFIK
    SHEFIK --- ---
    GLOBETROTTER: z mest a vesnic proti proudu reky. Ne z tech primorskejch, ty sou nuceny do cisticek investovat a sou pod lupou kvuli turismu. Kdyby to neudelali, neda se tam koupat zadnej rok.

    Kdyz ti vysycha reka, je koncentrace bakterii nevyhnutelne vetsi. Do more se sice dostane min vody, ale vic kontaminovany.
    GLOBETROTTER
    GLOBETROTTER --- ---
    TUHO: "Radnice odmítají, že by na zhoršení stavu vod měly samy podíl, například vypouštěním splašků do moře. „Za realizaci oddělené kanalizace jsme utratili na 250 milionů eur (přes šest miliard korun),“ uvedl starosta Rimini Jamil Sadegholvaad, podle kterého může mít situace závažné ekonomické dopady."
    A jak se tam ta bakterie dostala? Pokud Pád kvůli suchu prakticky neteče, tak se to tam mohlo dostat jedině z pobřežních měst. Klasická lež pana politika.
    PALEONTOLOG
    PALEONTOLOG --- ---
    pokud si vzpomínám, tak je to austrálie 2019
    PALEONTOLOG
    PALEONTOLOG --- ---
    TUHO: celý tyhle český opletačky s táborákem jsou jeden velkej meh

    [PALEONTOLOG @ Destrukce/Rozklad]
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    Nestíháme. Česko ani další země EU neplní plány na výstavbu větrných a solárních elektráren - EnergoZrouti.cz
    https://energozrouti.cz/z/nestihame-cesko-ani-dalsi-zeme-eu-neplni-plany-na-vystavbu-vetrnych-a-solarnich-elektraren
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    Visegradský jezdec
    47 min ·
    Ocitli jsme na totální hraně a vyhlásili ústup, což bylo správné rozhodnutí. Nic takového jsem za svou patnáctiletou kariéru nezažil a doufám, že už nezažiju,“ říká velitel dobrovolných hasičů z Hřenska Jan Košík.
    Článek věnovaný našim spoluobčanům, kteří už několik dní a noci hasí požár národního parku v okolí Hřenska
    Mám za to, že v následujících letech společenská prestiž profesionálních i dobrovolných požárníků ještě poroste a právem.
    Díky.
    🚒 „Inferno. Blíží se k vám, čekáte, až doběhne, abyste ten oheň sfoukli, ale najednou obrovský válec kouře, který se kolem vás začne motat. Pak vylítne šestimetrová stěna plamenů a vy si uvědomíte, že to nejde uhasit. Kdo neměl dýchací techniku, byl vyřízený. Kluci si vyhrabávali díru do země, aby se mohli nadechnout.“
    🚒 ,,„Teď tu dohašujeme ohniska v požářišti. Kropíme, prolíváme půdu a jakmile se nějaké objeví, hned ho likvidujeme,“ popisuje mladý dobrovolník. „V této fázi je nejhorší, že se požár šíří pod zemí, není vidět. Jednou je tam, pak se zas objeví o desítky metrů jinde. Prostě to chce hodně vody,“ shrnuje mladý hasič během pauzy na oběd.
    🚒 ,,Kdy se vrátím domů? Nevím, budu tady jak bude potřeba. Ale rád bych to stihl domů do soboty, to se žením."
    🚒 „Nejvíc nahnáno jsem měl hned v pondělí,“ vzpomíná na uplynulé dny mezi Hřenskem a Meznou šestatřicetiletý dobrovolný hasič Josef Urban.
    „Ústup zahlásil velitel na poslední chvíli. V hlavě jsem měl jediné: Zkontrolovat, aby tam po mně nikdo nezůstal, rychle se spakovat a pryč odtamtud.“

    Opustili práci, spí dvě hodiny denně, riskují život. Říká se tomu diagnóza 150 - Seznam Zprávy
    https://www.seznamzpravy.cz/clanek/domaci-zivot-v-cesku-pribehy-hasicu-traktorista-malir-a-ucitelka-zachranuji-narodni-park-210116
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    Italské úřady vyhlásily zákaz koupání. Na části jadranského pobřeží se přemnožily bakterie - Echo24.cz
    https://echo24.cz/a/S3dJ4/zakaz-koupani-italie-rimini-bakterie
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    FB-IMG-1659051720134
    SHEFIK
    SHEFIK --- ---
    PER2: :)

    A to co2 zmizi samo a hned kdyz ted prejdem na renewables a omezime konzum ? To je co presne ten konzum, a ktera jeho cast je ta spatna a kterej nakup je ten dobrej, co neskodi?

    Mas pravdu, ze ty vlaky klima nespasi, ani sem to netvrdil, ale zajmavej koncept to rozhodne je a treba se na zaklade toho vymysli neco efektivnejsiho.
    ...
    Koncept sebevrazdy je sice skvelej nastroj na vyreseni existencionalni krize, ale pokud veris, ze tu lidi bejt nemeli protoze se co2 utrhlo po milionech let ze retezu, tak te pravdepodobne nenaplni ani kdyz to klima zachranime. Dalsi duvod proc nenavidet a hledat viniky za dalsi krivdy se vzdycky najde.
    Kliknutím sem můžete změnit nastavení reklam