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    TUHOKlimaticka zmena / Thank you so much for ruining my day
    SHEFIK
    SHEFIK --- ---
    Mexican mangroves have been capturing carbon for 5,000 years
    https://phys.org/news/2022-09-mexican-mangroves-capturing-carbon-years.html

    The team expected that carbon would be found in the layer of peat beneath the forest, but they did not expect that carbon to be 5,000 years old. This result, along with a description of the microbes they identified, is now published in the journal Marine Ecology Progress Series.

    ...

    There are more than 1,100 types of bacteria living beneath the mangroves that consume and excrete a variety of chemical elements. Many of them function in extreme environments with low or no oxygen. However, these bacteria are not efficient at breaking down carbon.

    ...

    These sites are protecting carbon that has been there for millennia. Disturbing them would cause a carbon emission that we wouldn't be able to repair any time soon," said Matthew Costa, UC San Diego coastal ecologist and first author on the paper.
    SHEFIK
    SHEFIK --- ---
    #doomed

    Ozone layer depletion has a new cause and its not CFC. Read here to find out | Mint
    https://www.livemint.com/science/news/ozone-layer-depletion-has-a-new-cause-iodine-and-its-not-cfc-or-methane-read-here-to-find-out-11663345783912.html

    The study further noted that atmospheric increase in Iodine loading due to enhanced anthropogenic Ozone-induced ocean Iodine emissions, as well as the thinning and shrinking of Arctic sea ice expected in the near future, will probably lead to increases in Iodine emissions.

    "These results indicate that iodine chemistry could play an increasingly important role in the future and must be considered for accurate quantification of the ozone budget in the Arctic," IITM said in a release.
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    The recent declines in surface winds over Europe renewed concerns about a “global terrestrial stilling” linked with climate change. From 1978 until 2010, research showed a worldwide stilling of winds, with speeds dropping 2.3 percent per decade. In 2019, though, a group of researchers found that after 2010, global average wind speeds had actually increased — from 7 miles per hour to 7.4 miles per hour.
    Despite those conflicting data, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change forecasts slowing winds for the coming decades. By 2100, that body says, average annual wind speeds could drop by up to 10 percent.
    “Why do we have wind at all on the planet?” asks Paul Williams, who studies wind as a professor of atmospheric science at the University of Reading in England. “It’s because of uneven temperatures — very cold at the poles and warm at the tropics. That temperature difference drives the winds, and that temperature difference is weakening. The Arctic is warming faster than the tropics.”

    Global ‘Stilling’: Is Climate Change Slowing Down the Wind? - Yale E360
    https://e360.yale.edu/features/global-stilling-is-climate-change-slowing-the-worlds-wind
    PER2
    PER2 --- ---
    nothing new really....

    This is a *HUGE* freaking deal: Congress has obtained documents that show Big Oil companies actively lying about their climate commitments and coordinating to downplay their support for the Paris Agreement.

    That's fraud.

    thread:
    https://twitter.com/jamieclimate/status/1570155611274317825


    The NYT article says the committee has thousands of more pages they are working through and will be releasing more soon.
    That should have Big Oil *very* worried.


    Oil Executives Privately Contradicted Public Statements on Climate, Files Show - The New York Times
    https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/14/climate/oil-industry-documents-disinformation.html
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    you wouldn't fight over it (the forest, ofc)

    Major Toilet Paper Makers Are Wiping Out the Climate-Critical Boreal Forest - CleanTechnica
    https://cleantechnica.com/2022/09/13/major-toilet-paper-makers-are-wiping-out-the-climate-critical-boreal-forest/
    YMLADRIS
    YMLADRIS --- ---
    clanek v nature, z mailu

    Clean energy could save trillions of dollars
    A rapid transition to clean energy sources will save the world as much as US$12 trillion — even without accounting for the climate benefits. A study modelling the future cost of renewables and fossil fuels finds that the cost of solar and wind power has fallen more than was estimated in past projections. And the price will continue to drop quickly — although how much will depend on whether the world adopts aggressive climate policies and achieves the highest rates of technological innovation. “Even if you're a climate denier, you should be on board with what we're advocating,” says complex-systems scientist and co-author Doyne Farmer. “Our central conclusion is that we should go full speed ahead with the green energy transition because it's going to save us money.”
    MATT
    MATT --- ---
    DZODZO: pravda, nejsem si jist tou zelenou usporam, ale jednu dobu se urcite tlacil plyn oproti kotlum na tuhy paliva. ovzdusi na vesnicich to dost pomohlo, ale dneska asi litujou..
    DZODZO
    DZODZO --- ---
    MATT: od uhlofikace k plynofikaci? nzu davala dotacie na kotle na biomasu alebo tepelne cerpadla, mozno niekedy par rokov dozadu na plynove kondenzacne kotle
    MATT
    MATT --- ---
    SHEFIK: ted jsem debatoval s kamosem, a nebyl jsem mu schopnej vysvetlit, jak velkej problem je definovat a stanovit hodnotici funkce takovy AI. na co se má optimalizovat a co maximalizovat..

    YMLADRIS: pár dní zpět jsem si říkal, kolik lidí asi nadává stát, resp. "zelenou úsporám", která je přesvědčila k plynofikaci svejch obydlí..
    PER2
    PER2 --- ---
    konecne poradny plan

    Scientists propose controversial plan to refreeze North and South Poles by spraying sulphur dioxide into atmosphere | Climate News | Sky News
    https://news.sky.com/story/scientists-propose-controversial-plan-to-refreeze-north-and-south-poles-by-spraying-sulphur-dioxide-into-atmosphere-12697769
    SHEFIK
    SHEFIK --- ---
    #ccs #electromobility

    This Zero Emission Mobility (ZEM) EV captures carbon
    https://electrek.co/2022/09/14/this-zero-emission-mobility-zem-ev-captures-carbon/

    According to team estimates, the ZEM uses two filters that can capture up to 2kg (about 4.4 lbs) of CO2 as the EV travels 20,000 miles. Although this may not seem like much, around 10 ZEMs can absorb around as much carbon as an average tree.

    The team is in the process of obtaining a patent for their CO2 filter with plans to increase capacity in the coming years.
    SHEFIK
    SHEFIK --- ---
    YMLADRIS: ted uz zas zabredavame do politiky, snazil sem se to drzet kolem tech emisi, ale teda pojdme tu diskuzi zkusit dokoncit.

    Trzni ekonomika se nesnazi drzet u moci vladnouci vrstvu. To uz pak neni trzni ekonomika, ani demokracie. Je ale fakt, ze slabinou kazdeho lidskeho uskupeni je bud (vladni) moc, nebo penize, kterymi se da (vladni) moc korumpovat. Tomu se ani trzni prostredi nevyhne a zakony budou vzdy pozadu za lidskou vynalezavosti

    Centralni planovani ma vyhodu v tom, ze dokaze presmerovat priority velke masy lidi k jednomu, ci nekolika malo cilum. Na historii ruznych statu je ale jasne videt, ze stat je komplexnejsi nez jedno tema a pak zacnou ty ostatni trpet. Klima take neni jen o elektromobilite, ale tech akci je potreba vyrazne vic a potrebujeme i jakykoliv dalsi progress v technologiich - ten centralne nenaplanujes, vychazi z miry motivace.

    Trzni ekonomika je v totalu nejefektivnejsi, aby byly uprednostnovane vsechny oblasti, ktere jsou pro spolecenstvi lidi v danou chvili potrebne/prioritni. Vyjadreno financni hodnotou, ktera neni nicim jinym, nez ocenenim prace (hodnoty tvoji/moji prace pro spolecnost).
    YMLADRIS
    YMLADRIS --- ---
    YMLADRIS: ja se v tom nemam o co oprit, protoze nevim, jaky plan ma ta centralne planovava ekonomika. Centralne planovana ekonomika dokaze neuveritelne veci, napriklad zastropovat lidem pocet deti. (Coz, jak vis, by byl nejvetsi zářez do energetické náročnosti lidstva.) Na druhou stranu, centralne planovana ekonomika typicky ma hlavni zajem - udrzet u moci vladnouci vrstvu, v cemz se nelisi od trznich ekonomik, takze tezko rict jestli z praktickeho hlediska se da jasne rict, ktera z nich je zelenejsi.
    YMLADRIS
    YMLADRIS --- ---
    SHEFIK: je to uvaha k tomu, jestli se emise lepe snizuji v prostredi trhu, nebo v prostredi centralne planovane ekonomiky?
    SHEFIK
    SHEFIK --- ---
    YMLADRIS: chtel sem to sice porovnat jinak, ale nemam cas na resersi pro malou bakalarku. Vychazim snad z duveryhodnyho zdroje, abych verifikoval tvoji tezi, ze emise se presunuly po komunismu do ciny:

    Emise skleníkových plynů v ČR v letech 1990–2018
    https://faktaoklimatu.cz/infografiky/emise-cr-vyvoj

    1) nejvic emisi tvorila a tvori energetika, ktera je aktualne o 10% niz a ten propad na grafu je spis konstantni, nez ze by byl zpusobeny jednorazovym zaviranim energeticky narocnych provozu. Hraje tam roli napr. Temelin, plus:

    "Emise v energetice pochází především ze spalování hnědého uhlí v elektrárnách, tudíž je možné je snižovat energetickými úsporami a rozvojem obnovitelných a nízkouhlíkových zdrojů energie."

    Pritom se predpokladam shodneme, ze jsme vyrazne energeticky narocnejsi zeme nez pred komunismem, plus jsme cisty vyvozce. Nejsem si jisty, jestli jsme za komunismu energii vubec vyvazeli.

    2) dale sektor dopravy. Tam byl od roku 1990 narust o 69% do roku 2019. Predpokladam, ze se shodneme, ze na silnicich je vic aut nez 69% a ze jejich spalovani je urcite cistsi, stejne jako, ze rychlost obnovy vozoveho parku, ktera k tomu prispela je rychlejsi, nez za komunismu.

    3) prumyslove procesy - se propadly od 1990 jen o 5% emisi v danem sektoru (dejme tomu 0,8 ze 16ti; tech 0,8 dela z celkovych 129 soucasnych emisi necele procento).

    4) spalovani v domacnostech, institucich a zemedelstvi - vyrazny pokles o 61% blizko po revoluci, vysvetleni dle clanku:

    "Jedná se o emise z topení a ohřevu vody (pokud energie není dodávána z teplárny), vaření apod. Také sem patří spalování pohonných hmot v zemědělství a lesnictví. Většina poklesu, o jednu polovinu, se uskutečnila během devadesátých let díky plynofikaci a zvyšující se energetické efektivitě budov."

    Nechavam otevrenou otazku, zda a jakou rychlosti by se delo za komunismu a proc se tak delo blizko po revoluci a ne pred ni.

    5) spalovani v prumyslu a stavebnictvi - tohle jsou ty zavrene provozy tezkeho prumyslu, ktere uvadis, celkove snizeni emisi o 79% v danem sektoru. V roce 1990 slo o 25% celkovych emisi, pokud by zustaly stejne jako byly, delalo by to nyni pres 29% celkovych emisi (50/(129+50-10)

    Vratim se k tomuhle cislu jeste v summary

    6) odpadove hospodarstvi - narust 89% primarne kvuli metanu na skladkach

    7) zemedelstvi - emise o 45% nizsi oproti 1990. Prevdepodobne skrze metan a dobytek, nemyslim si, ze by se puda redukovala, nebo by bylo zemedelstvi mene intenzivni oproti komunismu

    Zaverem:
    A) mas pravdu, ze primarni propad v absolutnich cislech byl zpusobeny odlivem tezkeho prumyslu jinam
    B) ve vsech sektorech krom odpadoveho jsme se zefektivnili a doslo k redukci emisi a to i pres narust obyvatel a 'intenzivni kapitalismus' po dobu 30 let
    C) i kdyby tezky prumysl zustal, doslo by k usporam emisi po techto 30% letech a to ve vysi 4% (podil tezkeho prumyslu by se zvedl ze 25-29%).

    Mohl bych k tomu pridat, ze tezky prumysl by se modernizoval a zefektivnil, pac by se nejelo na 500% splneni planu, ale na trzni nasyceni poptavky v konkurencnim prostredi. Pak by ale nekdo kohl namitnout, ze komunismus by zavedl zmeny stejne rychle, takze tu politiku k tomu nechci dal otvirat. Myslim, ze cisla i porevolucni trendy jsou vic nez vypovidajici.

    Budu rad za dalsi diskuzi, nebo nesrovnalosti v predpokladech a zjednodusenich, ktere v textu mam
    SHEFIK
    SHEFIK --- ---
    TADEAS: souhlasim, ale vidim problem prave v tom rozhodovacim procesu, kterej posuzovanim a debatovanim trva neskutecne dlouho, nez se dojde konsenzu. Dyl nez samotna realizace.

    Nedelam si iluze, ze AI doporuceni budou ihned prijaty, ale kdyz nad tim dal premyslim, pri vseobecnem uznani kriterii nejakyho rozhodovaciho modelu na kterym ten AI learning probiha (pripadne empirickym uznanim) by pak to doporuceni mohlo slouzit jako podklad pro vychozi 'neutralni' apolitickej scenar. Minimalne by se odfiltrovaly ty radoby expertni nazory
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    SHEFIK: debatovat "policy" znamena "planovat". rozhodnuti a pak provedeni jako dalsi kroky procesu jsou jeste jine domeny, kde machine learning ma ulohu pouze pokud skutecne ridi systemy, tj. rozhodne a zahaji provedeni.

    na jednu stranu lol, na druhou stranu velky ucici krok pro lidstvo ,)
    SHEFIK
    SHEFIK --- ---
    :D

    ...ale tak delegovat rozhodnuti na AI, misto statu s mocenskymi zajmy by asi opravdu zacalo vecmi hybat

    AI climate negotiators can debate 100 years worth of policy in seconds | New Scientist
    https://www.newscientist.com/article/2338108-ai-climate-negotiators-can-debate-100-years-worth-of-policy-in-seconds/
    SHEFIK
    SHEFIK --- ---
    Čeští vědci připravili pro města návod, jak si poradit s vysokými teplotami v ulicích - Ekolist.cz
    https://ekolist.cz/cz/publicistika/priroda/cesti-vedci-pripravili-pro-mesta-navod-jak-si-poradit-s-vysokymi-teplotami-v-ulicich
    Kliknutím sem můžete změnit nastavení reklam