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    TUHOKlimaticka zmena / Thank you so much for ruining my day


    "Given the sheer enormity of climate change, it’s okay to be depressed, to grieve. But please, don’t stay there too long. Join me in pure, unadulterated, righteous anger."


    "I don’t want your hope. I don’t want you to be hopeful. I want you to panic. I want you to feel the fear I feel every day. And then I want you to act. Once you start to act, the hope is everywhere."

    "Our best scientists tell us insistently that a calamity is unfolding, that the life-support systems of the Earth are being damaged in ways that threaten our survival. Yet in the face of these facts we carry on as usual."

    “We’ve got to stop burning fossil fuels. So many aspects of life depend on fossil fuels, except for music and love and education and happiness. These things, which hardly use fossil fuels, are what we must focus on.”

    A nejde o to, že na to nemáme dostatečné technologie, ty by na řešení použít šly, ale chybí nám vůle a představivost je využít. Zůstáváme při zemi, přemýšlíme až moc rezervovaně. Technologický pokrok to sám o sobě nevyřeší. Problém jsme my, ne technologické nástroje.

    Rostouci hladiny oceanu, zmena atmosferickeho proudeni, zmeny v distribuci srazek a sucha. Zmeny karbonoveho, fosforoveho a dusikoveho cyklu, okyselovani oceanu. Jake jsou bezpecnostni rizika a jake potencialni klady dramatickych zmen fungovani zemskeho systemu?
    Ale take jak funguji masove dezinformacni kampane ropneho prumyslu a boj o verejne mineni na prahu noveho klimatickeho rezimu post-holocenu.
    rozbalit záhlaví
    TUHO
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    TUHO
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    A jeste ke geopolitice a vztahu Nemecko / Rusko clanek z roku 2019


    Moscow’s position vis-à-vis the climate agreements has always been ambivalent. Yet it was instrumental in the Kyoto Protocol coming into force. Russia
    signed the Paris Agreement in 2015 and formally joined in autumn 2019 (Reuters,
    2019). On the one hand, the country is not only the fourth largest emitter of greenhouse gases, but also a major fossil fuel exporter. On the other, Russia argues that
    its energy mix is relatively clean and that emissions have decreased significantly
    in the 1990s. Beyond that, increased climate ambitions and dedicated actions can
    be seen as a blow to the Russian economic model, but also as a development that
    lessens Russia’s geopolitical influence.
    Berlin in turn has embarked on the Energiewende. A“Green Energy Transition“
    has been on the German political agenda since the 1980s, but has become an
    explicit part of policies with the Energy Concept of 2010, which were revised in
    2011 under the impact of Fukushima and accomplished by a nuclear phase-out
    by 2022. This article explores how the German (and EU) energy transformation
    has affected the German–Russian gas relations and takes a long-term perspective
    to explore how the alliance evolved and changed, how the underlying paradigms
    and notions have been adapted over time and, last but not least, how (power)
    relations have been affected by that.

    German–Russian gas relations in face of the energy transition
    https://rujec.org/article/55478/
    TUHO
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    Taky rok 2019, 4 scenare pro geopolitiku dekarbonizujiciho sveta

    This opinion article offers insights into the geopolitics of the ongoing global energy transition. In doing so, it draws heavily on a workshop in Berlin in late 2018, and a subsequent paper in the journal Nature. Four scenarios are presented. First, the “Big Green Deal” offers a positive story of the future, under the assumption that there will be a multilateral approach to tackling climate change. Second, “Dirty Nationalism” explores the fallout of nations choosing to turn inward and pursue a short-term, protectionist, and self-interested agenda. Third, “Technology Breakthrough” illustrates how a technological leap forward could lead to a great power rivalry and distinct regional energy blocs. Finally, “Muddling On” investigates the outcome of an energy transition that reflect business as usual. By comparing and contrasting the different scenarios, the article highlights the potential winners and losers of the different scenarios, and the geopolitical consequences. It also sketches the implications for policy, theory, and scenario thinking more broadly.

    https://wires.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/wcc.625
    TUHO
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    IRENA z roku 2019

    The growing deployment of renewables has set in motion a global energy transformation with significant implications for geopolitics. The Director-General of the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), Adnan Z. Amin, with the support of the Governments of Germany, Norway and the United Arab Emirates, convened the Global Commission in January 2018 to address this implications.

    Chaired by former President Ólafur Ragnar Grímsson of Iceland, the Commission comprises a diverse group of distinguished leaders from the worlds of politics, energy, economics, trade, environment and development. The Commission is an independent body with members serving in their individual capacity.

    The Commission Report analyses the geopolitical implications of the accelerating global shift to renewables. It is the culmination of deliberations by the Global Commission on the Geopolitics of Energy Transformation, involving four meetings held in Berlin, Oslo Reykjavik and Abu Dhabi respectively, as well as consultations with business leaders, academics and policy thinkers. It is informed by a number of background papers drafted by experts in the fields of energy, security and geopolitics.

    The Commission takes full and independent responsibility for this Report, which reflects the consensus of its members.

    A New World The Geopolitics of the Energy Transformation
    https://www.irena.org/publications/2019/Jan/A-New-World-The-Geopolitics-of-the-Energy-Transformation
    YMLADRIS
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    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    YMLADRIS:

    Jozef Pecho
    https://www.facebook.com/1678732617/posts/10218977439221803/

    Som celkom prekvapený, že dlhodobé prognostické modely NOAA a BOM (prekvapujúco aj ECMWF) už teraz signalizujú potenciálny a veľmi rýchly nástup El Niňa (teplej fázy ENSO) v priebehu leta 2023 (JJA). Pochopiteľne, vzhľadom na pomerne veľké prognostické "okno" (>6 mesiacov) to môže skončiť pri tom, že chladná fáza ENSO (La Niňa) bude pokračovať aj naďalej, už štvrtý rok po sebe, alebo budú podmienky blízke neutrálnym (čo je z dnešného pohľadu najviac pravdepodobné).

    Ak by sa súčasné odhady predsa len potvrdili a v priebehu roka 2023 by El Niňo skutočne prišlo, prípadne by bolo aj silné (podobne ako v rokoch 2015/16), existuje reálna možnosť, že v rokoch 2024-25 globálna teplota (GT) dosiahne, resp. presiahne hranicu 1,5 °C oteplenia. Zatiaľ by to bolo len na úrovni ročného priemeru GT, no aj tak by to znamenalo, že by sme prvý krát "okúsili", čo to znamená žiť na Zemi za hranicou "veľmi nebezpečnej zmeny klímy". Rozsah prejavov a negatívnych dôsledkov by bol v takom prípade bezprecedentný! Ani to nebudeme všetko stíhať sledovať. Môže sa to celé nakoniec veľmi rýchlo zvrtnúť do kaskádových zmien (tipping points overshoot), ktoré zmenia životné prostredie na celej Zemi na "nepoznanie" ( https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-022-01545-9 alebo https://www.pik-potsdam.de/en/news/latest-news/overshooting-climate-targets-could-significantly-increase-risk-for-tipping-cascades ).

    Len pripomínam, že hranicu 1,5 °C sme na úrovni mesačnej odchýlky GT presiahli vo februári 2016 (na celej Zemi sme vtedy, okrem iného, pozorovali aj nevídane rýchle bielenie - úhyn - tropických koralov; https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-04660-w).

    Zdroje:
    https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf [NOAA]

    http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Pacific-Ocean&pacific=Forecast [BOM]
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    The melting ice of the Arctic (1/2) | DW Documentary
    https://youtube.com/watch?v=GystZIxWQ3o
    PALEONTOLOG
    PALEONTOLOG --- ---
    https://twitter.com/PCarterClimate/status/1607472259597500417
    DZODZO
    DZODZO --- ---
    TADEAS: nestacia len tie miliony hladnych africanov s kyblikmi vody? aspon by sa zamestnali a nemali cas na tie svoje zabomysie vojny
    TADEAS
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    YMLADRIS: + velkou trubku do alzirska na myti panelu ,)
    YMLADRIS
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    SEJDA
    SEJDA --- ---
    Za 60 let vzrostla teplota v Česku o dva stupně - Novinky
    https://www.novinky.cz/clanek/domaci-za-60-let-vzrostla-teplota-v-cesku-o-dva-stupne-40418206

    Vzdy kdyz se podivam do diskuze pod clanky Novinek, lituji a nasleduje vyplach oci ..

    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    Current policies and actions make it very likely, at least temporarily, to overshoot the Paris climate targets of 1.5–<2.0 °C above pre-industrial levels. If this global warming range is exceeded, potential tipping elements such as the Greenland Ice Sheet and Amazon rainforest may be at increasing risk of crossing critical thresholds. This raises the question of how much this risk is amplified by increasing overshoot magnitude and duration. Here we investigate the danger for tipping under a range of temperature overshoot scenarios using a stylized network model of four interacting climate tipping elements. Our model analysis reveals that temporary overshoots can increase tipping risks by up to 72% compared with non-overshoot scenarios, even when the long-term equilibrium temperature stabilizes within the Paris range. Our results suggest that avoiding high-end climate risks is possible only for low-temperature overshoots and if long-term temperatures stabilize at or below today’s levels of global warming.

    Global warming overshoots increase risks of climate tipping cascades in a network model | Nature Climate Change
    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-022-01545-9
    YMLADRIS
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    su hodna, takze do dnesni pozitivni klimaticke svodky (na FB) jsem nedala

    El Niño Is Coming—and the World Isn’t Prepared | WIRED
    https://www.wired.com/story/climate-environment-hurricane/

    A global average temperature rise of 1.5°C is widely regarded as marking a guardrail beyond which climate breakdown becomes dangerous. Above this figure, our once-stable climate will begin to collapse in earnest, becoming all-pervasive, affecting everyone, and insinuating itself into every aspect of our lives. In 2021, the figure (compared to the 1850–1900 average) was 1.2°C, while in 2019—before the development of the latest La Niña—it was a worryingly high 1.36°C. As the heat builds again in 2023, it is perfectly possible that we will touch or even exceed 1.5°C for the first time.
    TUHO
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    Ha, zde autobiografie Davida Keelinga (cloveka, ktery zacal merit CO2 v atmosfere)

    When I began my professional career, the pursuit of science was in a transition
    from a pursuit by individuals motivated by personal curiosity to a worldwide
    enterprise with powerful strategic and materialistic purposes. The studies of the
    Earth’s environment that I have engaged in for over forty years, and describe in
    this essay, could not have been realized by the old kind of science. Associated with
    the new kind of science, however, was a loss of ease to pursue, unfettered, one’s
    personal approaches to scientific discovery. Human society, embracing science
    for its tangible benefits, inevitably has grown dependent on scientific discoveries.
    It now seeks direct deliverable results, often on a timetable, as compensation
    for public sponsorship. Perhaps my experience in studying the Earth, initially
    with few restrictions and later with increasingly sophisticated interaction with
    government sponsors and various planning committees, will provide a perspective
    on this great transition from science being primarily an intellectual pastime of
    private persons to its present status as a major contributor to the quality of human
    life and the prosperity of nations.

    https://scrippsco2.ucsd.edu/assets/publications/keeling_autobiography.pdf
    YMLADRIS
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    TUHO: dik za info, takhle me nenapadlo o tom uvazovat
    TUHO
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    YMLADRIS: U oteplovani je jinej napad, jak zpomalit oteplovani. Prechod na jadro / OZE. Problem je, ze mu brani fosilni prumysl, protoze by to pro nej znamenalo enormni ztraty.
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    Nechcete nekdo udelat resersi tohodle?

    Většina zemí světa by mohla plně pokrýt své energetické potřeby jen díky vodě, větru a Slunci –⁠ pokud by dokázaly energie účinně skladovat. Popisuje to studie vědců ze Stanfordovy univerzity. Náklady na tuto změnu by se podle studie státům rychle vrátily.

    Většina zemí světa může pokrýt svou spotřebu jen z obnovitelných zdrojů, tvrdí studie ze Stanfordu — ČT24 — Česká televize
    https://ct24.ceskatelevize.cz/veda/3552498-vetsina-zemi-sveta-muze-pokryt-svou-spotrebu-jen-z-obnovitelnych-zdroju-tvrdi-studie-ze

    Low-cost solutions to global warming, air pollution, and energy insecurity for 145 countries - Energy & Environmental Science (RSC Publishing)
    https://pubs.rsc.org/en/content/articlelanding/2022/ee/d2ee00722c

    Study finds 100% renewables would pay off within 6 years – pv magazine International
    https://www.pv-magazine.com/2022/08/08/study-finds-100-renewables-would-pay-off-within-six-years/
    YMLADRIS
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    TUHO: uvazuju o tom tak, ze to bude jako s tou jadernou energii. cast lidi je zasadne proti, boji se, ze provozovanim jaderek se toho muze hodne posrat. cast lidi je zasadne pro, protoze je to sance jak zpomalit oteplovani.

    stejne tak to bude s tim geoinzenyringem. U tech freonu byla levna nahrada. U oteplovani neni jinej napad jak zpomalit oteplovani.

    cast lidi bude zasadne proti, cast lidi bude zasadne pro. Pokud to zacne delat treba Cina, jak ji zastavis.

    ono ani neni zjevny, ze je to spatny napad. Muze to koupit nejaky cas. Muze to ale dopadnout hodne havarijne.

    ted je to furt tak nejak pohoda. ale az vypuknou opravdove problemy na tom globalnim jihu, lidi budou pozadovat aby se NECO UDELALO (coz ale neni snizit jim zivotni uroven)

    “We joke slash not joke that this is partly a company and partly a cult,” he says.
    Iseman, previously a director of hardware at Y Combinator, says he expects to be pilloried by both geoengineering critics and researchers in the field for taking such a step, and he recognizes that “making me look like the Bond villain is going to be helpful to certain groups.” But he says climate change is such a grave threat, and the world has moved so slowly to address the underlying problem, that more radical interventions are now required.
    “It’s morally wrong, in my opinion, for us not to be doing this,” he says. What’s important is “to do this as quickly and safely as we can.”
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    YMLADRIS: No co, zakony na ochranu atmosfery? Mezinarodni dohody? To samy, jak chranime ozonovou vrstvu prostrednictvim Montrealskyho protokolu treba?
    Jinak tech problemu je tuna samozrejme, ale podle me nejvetsi a principialni problem je ten, ze nijak neresi okyselovani oceanu (CO2 se rozpousti ve vode, meni pH vody a to vede k dost dramatickejm dusledkum)
    Kliknutím sem můžete změnit nastavení reklam