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    TUHOKlimaticka zmena / If the fracturing of our once stable climate doesn’t terrify you, then you don’t fully understand it
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    IRENA z roku 2019

    The growing deployment of renewables has set in motion a global energy transformation with significant implications for geopolitics. The Director-General of the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), Adnan Z. Amin, with the support of the Governments of Germany, Norway and the United Arab Emirates, convened the Global Commission in January 2018 to address this implications.

    Chaired by former President Ólafur Ragnar Grímsson of Iceland, the Commission comprises a diverse group of distinguished leaders from the worlds of politics, energy, economics, trade, environment and development. The Commission is an independent body with members serving in their individual capacity.

    The Commission Report analyses the geopolitical implications of the accelerating global shift to renewables. It is the culmination of deliberations by the Global Commission on the Geopolitics of Energy Transformation, involving four meetings held in Berlin, Oslo Reykjavik and Abu Dhabi respectively, as well as consultations with business leaders, academics and policy thinkers. It is informed by a number of background papers drafted by experts in the fields of energy, security and geopolitics.

    The Commission takes full and independent responsibility for this Report, which reflects the consensus of its members.

    A New World The Geopolitics of the Energy Transformation
    https://www.irena.org/publications/2019/Jan/A-New-World-The-Geopolitics-of-the-Energy-Transformation
    YMLADRIS
    YMLADRIS --- ---
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    YMLADRIS:

    Jozef Pecho
    https://www.facebook.com/1678732617/posts/10218977439221803/

    Som celkom prekvapený, že dlhodobé prognostické modely NOAA a BOM (prekvapujúco aj ECMWF) už teraz signalizujú potenciálny a veľmi rýchly nástup El Niňa (teplej fázy ENSO) v priebehu leta 2023 (JJA). Pochopiteľne, vzhľadom na pomerne veľké prognostické "okno" (>6 mesiacov) to môže skončiť pri tom, že chladná fáza ENSO (La Niňa) bude pokračovať aj naďalej, už štvrtý rok po sebe, alebo budú podmienky blízke neutrálnym (čo je z dnešného pohľadu najviac pravdepodobné).

    Ak by sa súčasné odhady predsa len potvrdili a v priebehu roka 2023 by El Niňo skutočne prišlo, prípadne by bolo aj silné (podobne ako v rokoch 2015/16), existuje reálna možnosť, že v rokoch 2024-25 globálna teplota (GT) dosiahne, resp. presiahne hranicu 1,5 °C oteplenia. Zatiaľ by to bolo len na úrovni ročného priemeru GT, no aj tak by to znamenalo, že by sme prvý krát "okúsili", čo to znamená žiť na Zemi za hranicou "veľmi nebezpečnej zmeny klímy". Rozsah prejavov a negatívnych dôsledkov by bol v takom prípade bezprecedentný! Ani to nebudeme všetko stíhať sledovať. Môže sa to celé nakoniec veľmi rýchlo zvrtnúť do kaskádových zmien (tipping points overshoot), ktoré zmenia životné prostredie na celej Zemi na "nepoznanie" ( https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-022-01545-9 alebo https://www.pik-potsdam.de/en/news/latest-news/overshooting-climate-targets-could-significantly-increase-risk-for-tipping-cascades ).

    Len pripomínam, že hranicu 1,5 °C sme na úrovni mesačnej odchýlky GT presiahli vo februári 2016 (na celej Zemi sme vtedy, okrem iného, pozorovali aj nevídane rýchle bielenie - úhyn - tropických koralov; https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-04660-w).

    Zdroje:
    https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf [NOAA]

    http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Pacific-Ocean&pacific=Forecast [BOM]
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    The melting ice of the Arctic (1/2) | DW Documentary
    https://youtube.com/watch?v=GystZIxWQ3o
    PALEONTOLOG
    PALEONTOLOG --- ---
    https://twitter.com/PCarterClimate/status/1607472259597500417
    DZODZO
    DZODZO --- ---
    TADEAS: nestacia len tie miliony hladnych africanov s kyblikmi vody? aspon by sa zamestnali a nemali cas na tie svoje zabomysie vojny
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    YMLADRIS: + velkou trubku do alzirska na myti panelu ,)
    YMLADRIS
    YMLADRIS --- ---
    SEJDA
    SEJDA --- ---
    Za 60 let vzrostla teplota v Česku o dva stupně - Novinky
    https://www.novinky.cz/clanek/domaci-za-60-let-vzrostla-teplota-v-cesku-o-dva-stupne-40418206

    Vzdy kdyz se podivam do diskuze pod clanky Novinek, lituji a nasleduje vyplach oci ..

    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    Current policies and actions make it very likely, at least temporarily, to overshoot the Paris climate targets of 1.5–<2.0 °C above pre-industrial levels. If this global warming range is exceeded, potential tipping elements such as the Greenland Ice Sheet and Amazon rainforest may be at increasing risk of crossing critical thresholds. This raises the question of how much this risk is amplified by increasing overshoot magnitude and duration. Here we investigate the danger for tipping under a range of temperature overshoot scenarios using a stylized network model of four interacting climate tipping elements. Our model analysis reveals that temporary overshoots can increase tipping risks by up to 72% compared with non-overshoot scenarios, even when the long-term equilibrium temperature stabilizes within the Paris range. Our results suggest that avoiding high-end climate risks is possible only for low-temperature overshoots and if long-term temperatures stabilize at or below today’s levels of global warming.

    Global warming overshoots increase risks of climate tipping cascades in a network model | Nature Climate Change
    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-022-01545-9
    YMLADRIS
    YMLADRIS --- ---
    su hodna, takze do dnesni pozitivni klimaticke svodky (na FB) jsem nedala

    El Niño Is Coming—and the World Isn’t Prepared | WIRED
    https://www.wired.com/story/climate-environment-hurricane/

    A global average temperature rise of 1.5°C is widely regarded as marking a guardrail beyond which climate breakdown becomes dangerous. Above this figure, our once-stable climate will begin to collapse in earnest, becoming all-pervasive, affecting everyone, and insinuating itself into every aspect of our lives. In 2021, the figure (compared to the 1850–1900 average) was 1.2°C, while in 2019—before the development of the latest La Niña—it was a worryingly high 1.36°C. As the heat builds again in 2023, it is perfectly possible that we will touch or even exceed 1.5°C for the first time.
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    Ha, zde autobiografie Davida Keelinga (cloveka, ktery zacal merit CO2 v atmosfere)

    When I began my professional career, the pursuit of science was in a transition
    from a pursuit by individuals motivated by personal curiosity to a worldwide
    enterprise with powerful strategic and materialistic purposes. The studies of the
    Earth’s environment that I have engaged in for over forty years, and describe in
    this essay, could not have been realized by the old kind of science. Associated with
    the new kind of science, however, was a loss of ease to pursue, unfettered, one’s
    personal approaches to scientific discovery. Human society, embracing science
    for its tangible benefits, inevitably has grown dependent on scientific discoveries.
    It now seeks direct deliverable results, often on a timetable, as compensation
    for public sponsorship. Perhaps my experience in studying the Earth, initially
    with few restrictions and later with increasingly sophisticated interaction with
    government sponsors and various planning committees, will provide a perspective
    on this great transition from science being primarily an intellectual pastime of
    private persons to its present status as a major contributor to the quality of human
    life and the prosperity of nations.

    https://scrippsco2.ucsd.edu/assets/publications/keeling_autobiography.pdf
    YMLADRIS
    YMLADRIS --- ---
    TUHO: dik za info, takhle me nenapadlo o tom uvazovat
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    YMLADRIS: U oteplovani je jinej napad, jak zpomalit oteplovani. Prechod na jadro / OZE. Problem je, ze mu brani fosilni prumysl, protoze by to pro nej znamenalo enormni ztraty.
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    Nechcete nekdo udelat resersi tohodle?

    Většina zemí světa by mohla plně pokrýt své energetické potřeby jen díky vodě, větru a Slunci –⁠ pokud by dokázaly energie účinně skladovat. Popisuje to studie vědců ze Stanfordovy univerzity. Náklady na tuto změnu by se podle studie státům rychle vrátily.

    Většina zemí světa může pokrýt svou spotřebu jen z obnovitelných zdrojů, tvrdí studie ze Stanfordu — ČT24 — Česká televize
    https://ct24.ceskatelevize.cz/veda/3552498-vetsina-zemi-sveta-muze-pokryt-svou-spotrebu-jen-z-obnovitelnych-zdroju-tvrdi-studie-ze

    Low-cost solutions to global warming, air pollution, and energy insecurity for 145 countries - Energy & Environmental Science (RSC Publishing)
    https://pubs.rsc.org/en/content/articlelanding/2022/ee/d2ee00722c

    Study finds 100% renewables would pay off within 6 years – pv magazine International
    https://www.pv-magazine.com/2022/08/08/study-finds-100-renewables-would-pay-off-within-six-years/
    YMLADRIS
    YMLADRIS --- ---
    TUHO: uvazuju o tom tak, ze to bude jako s tou jadernou energii. cast lidi je zasadne proti, boji se, ze provozovanim jaderek se toho muze hodne posrat. cast lidi je zasadne pro, protoze je to sance jak zpomalit oteplovani.

    stejne tak to bude s tim geoinzenyringem. U tech freonu byla levna nahrada. U oteplovani neni jinej napad jak zpomalit oteplovani.

    cast lidi bude zasadne proti, cast lidi bude zasadne pro. Pokud to zacne delat treba Cina, jak ji zastavis.

    ono ani neni zjevny, ze je to spatny napad. Muze to koupit nejaky cas. Muze to ale dopadnout hodne havarijne.

    ted je to furt tak nejak pohoda. ale az vypuknou opravdove problemy na tom globalnim jihu, lidi budou pozadovat aby se NECO UDELALO (coz ale neni snizit jim zivotni uroven)

    “We joke slash not joke that this is partly a company and partly a cult,” he says.
    Iseman, previously a director of hardware at Y Combinator, says he expects to be pilloried by both geoengineering critics and researchers in the field for taking such a step, and he recognizes that “making me look like the Bond villain is going to be helpful to certain groups.” But he says climate change is such a grave threat, and the world has moved so slowly to address the underlying problem, that more radical interventions are now required.
    “It’s morally wrong, in my opinion, for us not to be doing this,” he says. What’s important is “to do this as quickly and safely as we can.”
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    YMLADRIS: No co, zakony na ochranu atmosfery? Mezinarodni dohody? To samy, jak chranime ozonovou vrstvu prostrednictvim Montrealskyho protokolu treba?
    Jinak tech problemu je tuna samozrejme, ale podle me nejvetsi a principialni problem je ten, ze nijak neresi okyselovani oceanu (CO2 se rozpousti ve vode, meni pH vody a to vede k dost dramatickejm dusledkum)
    YMLADRIS
    YMLADRIS --- ---
    hodně jsem to tu rozebirala v 2021, když jsem četla termination shock. síra není drahá, můžou si ji dovolit různí aktéři. srovnání s carbon capture

    “You’re saying that removing the carbon from the atmosphere would be a bigger project than putting sulfur into it,” Saskia said.

    “We would have to make a pile of carbon the size of Mount Rainier.
    About thirty cubic miles. Imagine a cube a mile on a side, full of this stuff.”
    He rested his hand a little more gently on the carbon jar. “And now imagine thirty of those.

    To get that done in any reasonable amount of time—let’s say fifty years—you have to imagine a 747 cargo freighter loaded with pure
    elemental carbon dumping it onto the pile every nine seconds for fifty years, 24/7/365,” T.R. said.

    “Now, maybe someone will make that happen. But they gotta be a whole lot richer and more powerful than everyone sitting around this table put together.”
    YMLADRIS
    YMLADRIS --- ---
    s tou sírou tomu rozumím tak, že je to extrémně levnější než carbon capture. nevím co by mohlo zabránit, aby se to nedělalo.
    YMLADRIS
    YMLADRIS --- ---
    TUHO: viz jak jsem z toho vykopirovala veci nize. "jsme napul firma napul kult, ha ha". je to uplne jinej typ aktivismu nez existoval do ted.
    Kliknutím sem můžete změnit nastavení reklam