Geopolitics of Electricity: Grids, Space and (political) Power

Although electricity grids shape and define both political and economic
spaces, the geopolitical significance of electricity remains underestimated.
In political communities and beyond, such grids establish new channels
for projecting geopolitical influence and new spheres of influence.
∎ In the Europe-Asia continental area, integrated electricity grids meet interconnectors – that is, cross-border transmission lines linking different electric grids. Interconnectors define new, partly competing vectors of integration that extend beyond already integrated electricity grids.
∎ In this context, it is attractive for non-EU states to belong to the electricity
system of continental Europe. This is because interconnected synchronous
systems form “grid communities” that share a “common destiny” – not
only in terms of electricity supply but also in terms of security and welfare.
∎ Germany and the EU must develop an electricity foreign policy in order
to optimise, modernise, strengthen and expand the European electricity
grid. Above all, however, Germany and the EU should help shape interconnectivity beyond the EU’s common integrated electricity grid.
∎ China is gaining considerable influence in the electricity sector, setting
standards and norms as well as expanding its strategic outreach – to the
benefit of its own economy. Its efforts are part of Beijing’s larger Belt and
Road Initiative (BRI), an attempt to reorient global infrastructure and
commercial flows.
∎ In the EU’s eastern neighbourhood, geopolitical issues have dominated
the configuration of electricity grids since the end of the Cold War. There
is unmistakable competition over integration between the EU and Russia.
∎ The eastern Mediterranean region, the Black Sea and Caspian Sea regions,
and Central Asia are, each in their own way, changing from peripheral
zones into interconnecting spaces. The EU, China, Russia and – across
the Black Sea – Iran and Turkey are competing in these zones to influence the reconfiguration of electricity grids. And in South and Southeast
Asia, India’s influence is on the rise

https://www.swp-berlin.org/publications/products/research_papers/2022RP06_GeopoliticsOfElectricity.pdf

TUHO: versus dovozni zavislost na Rusku CR

https://www.mpo.cz/assets/cz/energetika/statistika/energeticke-bilance/2022/3/Dovozni-zavislost-CR-2010-2020.pdf

TUHO:

A jeste ke geopolitice a vztahu Nemecko / Rusko clanek z roku 2019


Moscow’s position vis-à-vis the climate agreements has always been ambivalent. Yet it was instrumental in the Kyoto Protocol coming into force. Russia
signed the Paris Agreement in 2015 and formally joined in autumn 2019 (Reuters,
2019). On the one hand, the country is not only the fourth largest emitter of greenhouse gases, but also a major fossil fuel exporter. On the other, Russia argues that
its energy mix is relatively clean and that emissions have decreased significantly
in the 1990s. Beyond that, increased climate ambitions and dedicated actions can
be seen as a blow to the Russian economic model, but also as a development that
lessens Russia’s geopolitical influence.
Berlin in turn has embarked on the Energiewende. A“Green Energy Transition“
has been on the German political agenda since the 1980s, but has become an
explicit part of policies with the Energy Concept of 2010, which were revised in
2011 under the impact of Fukushima and accomplished by a nuclear phase-out
by 2022. This article explores how the German (and EU) energy transformation
has affected the German–Russian gas relations and takes a long-term perspective
to explore how the alliance evolved and changed, how the underlying paradigms
and notions have been adapted over time and, last but not least, how (power)
relations have been affected by that.

German–Russian gas relations in face of the energy transition
https://rujec.org/article/55478/

YMLADRIS:

Jozef Pecho
https://www.facebook.com/1678732617/posts/10218977439221803/

Som celkom prekvapený, že dlhodobé prognostické modely NOAA a BOM (prekvapujúco aj ECMWF) už teraz signalizujú potenciálny a veľmi rýchly nástup El Niňa (teplej fázy ENSO) v priebehu leta 2023 (JJA). Pochopiteľne, vzhľadom na pomerne veľké prognostické "okno" (>6 mesiacov) to môže skončiť pri tom, že chladná fáza ENSO (La Niňa) bude pokračovať aj naďalej, už štvrtý rok po sebe, alebo budú podmienky blízke neutrálnym (čo je z dnešného pohľadu najviac pravdepodobné).

Ak by sa súčasné odhady predsa len potvrdili a v priebehu roka 2023 by El Niňo skutočne prišlo, prípadne by bolo aj silné (podobne ako v rokoch 2015/16), existuje reálna možnosť, že v rokoch 2024-25 globálna teplota (GT) dosiahne, resp. presiahne hranicu 1,5 °C oteplenia. Zatiaľ by to bolo len na úrovni ročného priemeru GT, no aj tak by to znamenalo, že by sme prvý krát "okúsili", čo to znamená žiť na Zemi za hranicou "veľmi nebezpečnej zmeny klímy". Rozsah prejavov a negatívnych dôsledkov by bol v takom prípade bezprecedentný! Ani to nebudeme všetko stíhať sledovať. Môže sa to celé nakoniec veľmi rýchlo zvrtnúť do kaskádových zmien (tipping points overshoot), ktoré zmenia životné prostredie na celej Zemi na "nepoznanie" ( https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-022-01545-9 alebo https://www.pik-potsdam.de/en/news/latest-news/overshooting-climate-targets-could-significantly-increase-risk-for-tipping-cascades ).

Len pripomínam, že hranicu 1,5 °C sme na úrovni mesačnej odchýlky GT presiahli vo februári 2016 (na celej Zemi sme vtedy, okrem iného, pozorovali aj nevídane rýchle bielenie - úhyn - tropických koralov; https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-04660-w).

Zdroje:
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf [NOAA]

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Pacific-Ocean&pacific=Forecast [BOM]

YMLADRIS: + velkou trubku do alzirska na myti panelu ,)

Za 60 let vzrostla teplota v Česku o dva stupně - Novinky
https://www.novinky.cz/clanek/domaci-za-60-let-vzrostla-teplota-v-cesku-o-dva-stupne-40418206

Vzdy kdyz se podivam do diskuze pod clanky Novinek, lituji a nasleduje vyplach oci ..

Current policies and actions make it very likely, at least temporarily, to overshoot the Paris climate targets of 1.5–<2.0 °C above pre-industrial levels. If this global warming range is exceeded, potential tipping elements such as the Greenland Ice Sheet and Amazon rainforest may be at increasing risk of crossing critical thresholds. This raises the question of how much this risk is amplified by increasing overshoot magnitude and duration. Here we investigate the danger for tipping under a range of temperature overshoot scenarios using a stylized network model of four interacting climate tipping elements. Our model analysis reveals that temporary overshoots can increase tipping risks by up to 72% compared with non-overshoot scenarios, even when the long-term equilibrium temperature stabilizes within the Paris range. Our results suggest that avoiding high-end climate risks is possible only for low-temperature overshoots and if long-term temperatures stabilize at or below today’s levels of global warming.

Global warming overshoots increase risks of climate tipping cascades in a network model | Nature Climate Change
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-022-01545-9

Ha, zde autobiografie Davida Keelinga (cloveka, ktery zacal merit CO2 v atmosfere)

When I began my professional career, the pursuit of science was in a transition
from a pursuit by individuals motivated by personal curiosity to a worldwide
enterprise with powerful strategic and materialistic purposes. The studies of the
Earth’s environment that I have engaged in for over forty years, and describe in
this essay, could not have been realized by the old kind of science. Associated with
the new kind of science, however, was a loss of ease to pursue, unfettered, one’s
personal approaches to scientific discovery. Human society, embracing science
for its tangible benefits, inevitably has grown dependent on scientific discoveries.
It now seeks direct deliverable results, often on a timetable, as compensation
for public sponsorship. Perhaps my experience in studying the Earth, initially
with few restrictions and later with increasingly sophisticated interaction with
government sponsors and various planning committees, will provide a perspective
on this great transition from science being primarily an intellectual pastime of
private persons to its present status as a major contributor to the quality of human
life and the prosperity of nations.

https://scrippsco2.ucsd.edu/assets/publications/keeling_autobiography.pdf

TUHO: dik za info, takhle me nenapadlo o tom uvazovat

YMLADRIS: U oteplovani je jinej napad, jak zpomalit oteplovani. Prechod na jadro / OZE. Problem je, ze mu brani fosilni prumysl, protoze by to pro nej znamenalo enormni ztraty.