Prof. Stefan Rahmstorf 🌏 🦣
@rahmstorf
Important preprint:
https://arxiv.org/html/2406.11738v11. The authors identified where the
#AMOC tipping point is in a state-of-the-art climate model.
2. They identified what are observable & robust precursor signs before tipping in the model.
3. They looked for such warning signs in real ocean data.
4. They found signs that the AMOC tipping point will likely be crossed around mid-century.
Note that the tipping point is where the AMOC collapse starts; it will then take decades to a century until it’s complete.
They found that the critical place to look for warning signs is in the South Atlantic at the latitude 34 South (the tip of South Africa). I first suggested this in a 1996 paper based on theoretical considerations.
Probability Estimates of a 21st Century AMOC Collapsehttps://arxiv.org/html/2406.11738v1