MINER: Ano nelze to srovnat přímo, spíše podkládá práci J. Hansena.

Sdílel jsem tu pre-print před pár týdny.

Equilibrium global warming – a scaling perspective
https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2024/egusphere-2024-938/

For an initial CO2 doubling forcing of 4 W m-2 this yields a total forcing of (4+2)1.25 = 7.5 W m-2. Together with an ECS of 4.8°C, this results in an ESS of (7.5/4)4.8°C = 9°C.

As demonstrated in the feedback analysis in Section 2.3, the scale factor of 7.5/4 between ESS and ECS is in principle only
valid for the particular value of ECS under consideration, in this case the recent ‘Hansen value’ of 4.8°C.

In total, the above analysis leads to a 4°C future warming in the pipeline on top of the 2°C ‘Paris’ setpoint, resulting in an
Equilibrium global warming of about 6°C. This value sits more or less in between today’s actual warming of 1.2°C and the
expected 10°C warming for today’s GHGs concentrations in the atmosphere reported in the recent Hansen study

The IPCC’s reductive Common Era temperature history
Common Era temperature variability has been a prominent component in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports over the last several decades and was twice featured in their Summary for Policymakers. A single reconstruction of mean Northern Hemisphere temperature variability was first highlighted in the 2001 Summary for Policymakers, despite other estimates that existed at the time. Subsequent reports assessed many large-scale temperature reconstructions, but the entirety of Common Era temperature history in the most recent Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change was restricted to a single estimate of mean annual global temperatures. We argue that this focus on a single reconstruction is an insufficient summary of our understanding of temperature variability over the Common Era. We provide a complementary perspective by offering an alternative assessment of the state of our understanding in high-resolution paleoclimatology for the Common Era and call for future reports to present a more accurate and comprehensive assessment of our knowledge about this important period of human and climate history.

The IPCC’s reductive Common Era temperature history | Communications Earth & Environment
https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01371-1

Germany is a case study — perhaps the case study — of a Western middle power which made a strategic bet on a full embrace of interdependence and globalization in the late 20th century: it outsourced its security to the U.S., its export-led growth to China, and its energy needs to Russia. It is now finding itself excruciatingly vulnerable in an early 21st century characterized by great power competition and an increasing weaponization of interdependence by allies and adversaries alike. The war in Ukraine, which touches on almost every one of Germany’s bilateral, regional, and global interests, only accentuates its exposure. That this horrific conflict is taking place in the region that was part of the “Bloodlands” (the term coined by Yale historian Timothy Snyder), where Hitler and (to a lesser degree) Stalin murdered tens of millions of people is lost on few of my fellow citizens.

For much of the three decades after German reunification in 1990, Berlin saw Moscow (as well as Beijing) as a reliable strategic partner in a two-way bargain: Germany would import cheap energy, and export good governance in much the way that Eastern Europe had been transformed through entry into NATO and the EU. Ultimately, German policymakers hoped, this would transform not only these countries’ economies but also their political systems. And they believed — in an attempt to reconfigure West Germany’s Cold War Ostpolitik for a united Germany in the middle of Europe — that NATO and the European Union could and should be encompassed in a pan-European security architecture that included Russia.

The Kremlin, for its part, saw Germany as a friend, a partner, and as a strategic bridgehead into Europe — not least because it was importing roughly a third of its oil and gas from Russia. What the Germans called their “modernization partnership” with Moscow made for excellent business for a while; but in every other way, it proved to be a failure. Economic integration turned out to be strictly downstream, while many German businesses got burned by corruption and organized crime; political reform remained elusive.

Putin’s war and European energy security: A German perspective on decoupling from Russian fossil fuels | Brookings
https://www.brookings.edu/articles/putins-war-and-european-energy-security-a-german-perspective-on-decoupling-from-russian-fossil-fuels/

Podle me jsem tuhle prednasku sem daval, ale hazim znova. Protoze si ji tedka znova projizdim a Paul N. Edwards je totalni kral. Jednak je to naprosto pristupny pro vsechny, jednak je tam tuna zajimavejch informaci v kontextu a taky je tam tech veci tolik, ze si to s radosti za dva roky pustite znova (jako ja prave ted)

Paul Edwards, "Time, Risk, and Climate Knowledge: An Infrastructure Perspective"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8ff0i3YUgeo

I was wrong to conclude collapse is inevitable… - resilience
https://www.resilience.org/stories/2023-04-18/i-was-wrong-to-conclude-collapse-is-inevitable/

I was new to the topic of societal collapse at that time. So when in early 2021 I embarked on a couple of years of research on the topic, with an interdisciplinary team, I was open to finding analysis that would nuance my conclusions. The result of that process is contained in my new book, Breaking Together. What I discovered is that the breakdown of societies had already begun when I was researching the Deep Adaptation paper in 2017/18. Collapse is a process, not an event, and because the changes already observed appear to be irreversible, collapse is a reasonable term to describe that process.

In the book I go into great depth on the evidence base for this perspective. I also explain why it is not one that we hear so often from experts. Chapter 1 is available for free as an audio file on soundcloud. In it I describe some of the socio-economic evidence and theory for the view that the collapse of industrial consumer societies has already begun. Chapter 4 on global food system breakdown is also available as an Occasional Paper from my University. Commenting on it, Dr Katja Hujo from the UN Research Institute for Social Development (UNRISD) notes:

“Jem Bendell’s paper (and forthcoming book) is a wake-up call that our global food systems are approaching global breakdown due to a number of interlinked hard trends, from biophysical limits of food production and climate change to growing demand and the destructive implications of our profit-oriented capitalist system. The application of interdisciplinary integrative analysis and the emphasis on economic, social, technological and ecological dimensions of the challenge ahead helps to grapple with the complexity of the issue and to avoid simplistic solutions. It is an analysis that motivates the reader to act at multiple fronts and critically engage with a topic that has a huge bearing on the future of humanity.”

BREAKING TOGETHER – a freedom-loving response to collapse – Professor Jem Bendell
https://jembendell.com/2023/04/08/breaking-together-a-freedom-loving-response-to-collapse/

Initiative for Leadership and Sustainability: Six hard trends that drive food system breakdown – globally
http://iflas.blogspot.com/2023/02/six-hard-trends-that-drive-food-system.html?m=1

TUHO: + neco aktualnejsiho

- Heymann, Matthias, Gramelsberger, Gabriele and Mahony, Martin. (eds.) (2017). Cultures of Prediction in Atmospheric and Climate Science: Epistemic and Cultural Shifts in Computer-based Modelling and Simulation (Routledge Environmental Humanities). London: Routledge/Francis & Taylor.
- Gramelsberger, Gabriele, Lenhard, Johannes and Parker, Wendy (2020). Philosophical Perspectives on Earth System Modeling: Truth, Adequacy and Understanding. In: Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems 12(1). DOI: e2019MS001720.
- Gramelsberger, Gabriele (2018). Climate and Simulation. In: Oxford Research Encyclopdia Climate Science. DOI: 10.1093/acrefore/9780190228620.013.52.
- Gramelsberger, Gabriele (2015). Symbol Systems as Cognitive and Performative Hybrids: A Reply to Axel Gelfert. In: Social Epistemology Review and Reply Collective 4(8), 89-94.
- Mahony, Martin, Heymann, Matthias and Gramelsberger, Gabriele (2019). Cultures of prediction in climate science. In: Feola, Giuseppe et al. (eds.): Climate and Culture, 29-38. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
- Gramelsberger, Gabriele (2017). Calculating the weather – Emerging cultures of prediction in late 19th- and early 20th-century Europe. In: Matthias Heymann, Gabriele Gramelsberger, Martin Mahony (eds.): Cultures of Prediction in Atmospheric and Climate Science, 45-67. London: Routledge/Francis & Taylor.
- Gramelsberger, Gabriele (2017). Mathematical Images of Planet Earth. In: Nitzke, Solvejg and Pethes, Nicolas. (eds.): Imaging Earth. Concepts of Wholeness in Cultural Constructions of Our Home Planet, 23-44. Bielefeld: Transcript.

A trochu obecnejs k AI, modelum, komputacim etc.

- Gramelsberger, Gabriele (2020). Affective Computing. In: Hessler, Martina and Liggeri, Kevin. (eds): Handbuch für Technikanthropologie, 445-452. Baden-Baden: Nomos/Edition Sigma.
- Gramelsberger, Gabriele (2020). Algorithm Awareness. Towards a Philosophy of Artifactuality. In: Bösel, Bernd and Wiemer, Serjoscha. (eds.): Affective Media and Policy, 41-49. Lüneburg: Meson Press.
- Gramelsberger, Gabriele (2020). Augmenting Human Intellect. In: Thomas, Paul and Dewes, Tobias (eds.): Vergangenheit analysieren - Zukunft gestalten (Aachener Studien zur Wirtschafts-, Sozial- und Technikgeschichte 20), 51-64. Düren: Shaker Verlag.
- Gramelsberger, Gabriele (2013). Simulation and Systems Understanding. In: Andersen, Hanne, Dieks, Dennis, Gonzalez, Wenceslao J. et al. (eds.): New Challenges to Philosophy of Science The Philosophy of Science in a European Perspective, vol. 4, 151-161. Dordrecht: Springer.
- Gramelsberger, Gabriele and Mansnerus, Erika (2012). The inner world of models and its epistemic diversity. The cases of infectious disease and climate modelling. In: Bissell, Chris and Dillon, Chris. (eds.): Ways of Thinking, Ways of Seeing. Mathematical and Other Modelling in Engineering and Technology, 167-195. Dordrecht: Springer.
- Gramelsberger, Gabriele (2011). From Computation with Experiments to Experiments on Computation. In: Gramelsberger, Gabriele. (ed.): From Science to Computational Sciences, 131-142. Zürich, Berlin: diaphanes.

This should put the 2022 California heat wave into perspective for you. https://t.co/6B2Br43cJW

HANT: krome receneho


1/ podpora lomgtermisticky vize citadel, regionalne semioffgrid rezilientnich center

NZ and Global Crises: Brief reply to Reuben Steff – Adapt Research Ltd
https://adaptresearchwriting.com/2022/07/30/nz-and-global-crises-brief-reply-to-reuben-steff/

There are those beyond NZ who care about NZ’s resilience. These are found in the long-termist community that values humanity’s future. An impartial moral stance sees the most worthwhile thinking to be location agnostic, and a rationalist perspective seeks (and finds in eg NZ) optimal targets for developing human resilience. Leveraging this thinking, and its local proponents, could lead to a think tank on NZ resilience issues (eg your Aotearoa NZ Resilience Initiative) catalysed by proof of concept from this and earlier work. We also favour a ‘Parliamentary Commissioner for Extreme Risks’ to look across this set of issues.

...

But I don’t want to prejudge solutions, our project is taking some initial steps to start extracting them, and hopefully generate some interesting leads which the funder might want to pursue via think tank in a Public/Private/longtermist-NGO collaboration. I welcome anyone interested to get in touch


2/ podpora zajimavejch individui, jejich resersi a sitovani

Paul Maidowski is creating research to address the planetary emergency | Patreon
https://www.patreon.com/paulmaidowski