nekdo random na redditu se snazi rozebrat dynamiku mezi ruznymi klimatology

SS: We Study Climate Change. We Can’t Explain What We’re Seeing. - Gavin Schmidt (Head of GISS) and Zeke Hausfather (Berkeley Earth)

This "opinion" piece in today's NYT is basically a position statement from the Moderate faction in Climate Science. Schmidt and Hausfather are the "serious science" voices in that faction. As opposed to people like Michael Mann who pushes "hopium" and has stated that he views "doomism" as a "mental illness".

It's significant both for what it says and for what it doesn't say.

What it says that's important:

"The earth has been exceptionally warm of late, with every month from June 2023 until this past September breaking records."

"It has been considerably hotter even than climate scientists expected."

"Average temperatures during the past 12 months have also been above the goal set by the Paris climate agreement: to keep global warming below 1.5 degrees Celsius over preindustrial levels."

-translation: We are now above +1.5°C, WAY sooner than the Moderates thought it was going to happen.

"the unusual jump in global temperatures starting in mid-2023 appears to be higher than our models predicted (even as they generally remain within the expected range)."

-translation: The temperatures are GENERALLY within "the expected range" of the Moderate General Climate Models BUT at the HIGH END of the models. Meaning "Climate Sensitivity" to 2XCO2 is probably higher than they thought.

"While there have been many partial hypotheses — new low-sulfur fuel standards for marine shipping, a volcanic eruption in 2022, lower Chinese aerosol emissions and El Niño perhaps behaving differently than in the recent past."

-translation: 4 years ago we COMPLETELY ignored James Hansen when he predicted up to +0.6°C of warming from the change in marine diesel. Zeke estimated only +0.06°C of warming would result from that change. We would rather DIE than admit Hansen was right, but NOTHING ELSE explains what's happened.

"we remain far from a consensus explanation even more than a year after we first noticed the anomalies. And that makes us uneasy."

-translation: We don't know what's going on and we're scared.

"Why is it taking so long for climate scientists to grapple with these questions?"

-translation: The theories and models of the Moderates aren't working is why BUT they cannot admit that the Alarmists might have been right all along. So now, they are spending a LOT of time trying out EVERY OTHER possible explanation.

"It turns out that we do not have systems in place to explore the significance of shorter-term phenomena in the climate in anything approaching real time. But we need them badly. It’s now time for government science agencies to provide more timely updates in response to the rapid changes in the climate."

-translation: We need MORE MONEY to build out a better climate monitoring system.

Which is what the rest of the piece is a plea for.

The graphs are interesting and give a good idea of just how much 2023 and 2024 have been OFF THE CHARTS bad.

clanek zde https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/13/opinion/climate-change-heat-planet.html?unlocked_article_code=1.aU4.yUZL.WUVZeJCH6AiT&smid=re-share

YMLADRIS: Ano, trochu už to pár týdnů sleduji, ne že by od toho mohl člověk moc očekávat. :shrug:

“China and US push each other on priorities for UN COP29 climate talks…

“Washington’s top climate diplomat John Podesta has pressed Chinese leaders to come up with ambitious plans to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 2035 in one of the final meetings between the world’s two largest polluters ahead of the UN COP29 climate summit in November.”

Subscribe to read
https://www.ft.com/content/784bb728-a0d7-485a-9ab9-89da0d516f61
https://archive.fo/ecZe9

___

“Good Cop, Bad COP29: Azerbaijan’s greenwashing ahead of crucial climate summit…

“Since it was announced as this year’s host in November last year, Azerbaijan has intensified crackdowns on independent media and academics, arresting dozens on falsified charges this year alone. And concerns are intensifying around Azerbaijan’s commitments to expanding its fossil fuel industry.”
https://www.sbs.com.au/news/podcast-episode/good-cop-bad-cop29-azerbaijans-greenwashing-ahead-of-crucial-climate-summit/j5qm1xxq5

___

"Satellite data shows an increase in gas flaring since Azerbaijan last reported its emissions six years ago, calling into question BP and state oil company’s pledge to eliminate methane flaring by 2030."

"Under the 2015 Paris Agreement, countries are required to submit their emissions data every two years. Yet Azerbaijan, which will host the COP29 climate summit in November, has failed to do so since 2018. "
wonderful

"The Presidency of COP29 is headed by Mukhtar Babayev, who is currently serving as Ecology and Natural Resources of Azerbaijan, Babayev previously worked as the SOCAR’s Vice President for ecology."

https://www.globalwitness.org/en/campaigns/fossil-gas/cop29-host-azerbaijan-failing-report-ever-growing-methane-emissions/

___

Several major oil-producing countries, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, are pushing back against talks on an agreement at the upcoming COP29 climate summit to mitigate the use of fossil fuels.

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Petrostates-Push-Back-Against-UN-Talks-on-Shift-from-Fossil-Fuels.html

___

“COP29 host’s own climate plans are ‘critically insufficient’, says expert group…

“Campaigners have expressed concerns about the selection of yet another country that is heavily reliant on the sale of oil and gas to oversee the world’s most important climate negotiations. Questions about human rights followed after several arrests of government critics.”

Subscribe to read
https://www.ft.com/content/8ca61260-743a-4e4b-8699-e937a07d7cfc
https://archive.fo/Nlg2O

Přijdeš, položíš něco ve stylu tzv. loaded/suggestive otázky.
Dostaneš odpověď, tu následně ignoruješ, asi nezněla tak jak bylo očekáváno.

Namísto toho se chytneš jiné reakce a snažíš se její obsah minimalizovat (záplavy nejsou vůbec vzácné) a následuješ opět otázkou, která zkrátka nemá s diskuzí v dobré víře moc společného.

Dostaneš proti-argument (včetně materiálu) na onu minimalizaci, následuješ další minimalizací (to jsou zase jen "made twice as likely) - ale vše za maskou "I'm just asking questions".

Reaguji, ale hlavně tedy zmíním onu původni a ignorovanou odpověď, protože nevidím důvod proč dále vůbec řešit povodně, když ti byl poskytnut materiál, a vubec se to netýkalo tvé původní otázky.

Reaguješ postěžováním si, že se jen ptáš, hledáš porozumění lidského chování, že jsi měla konkrétní otázku.. Odpověď na ni jsi však záměrně ignorovala.
Každý jsme nějaký, ty víš "proč to asi bude", já tedy ne, marně hledám nějaký záměr nebo logiku za tvou dnešní prezentací.

názor

Is private capital the missing piece in $125 trillion energy-transition puzzle?
https://pitchbook.com/news/articles/is-private-capital-the-missing-piece-in-125-trillion-energy-transition-puzzle

The UK is almost a microcosm of a worldwide energy transition quandary—where the amount of investment needed, globally, is closer to $125 trillion. While each market faces its unique set of circumstances and advantages, the same structural trends and questions remain: Where do we get the money?

That dilemma can be seen in two ways. First, there’s the question of how to fund new sources of renewable energy and build the accompanying storage infrastructure to support those new sources. Second, the world must modernize power grids to handle more demand stemming from things like the proliferation of electric vehicle charging networks and power-hungry data centers fueling digitalization and AI adoption.

...

Private capital has already honed in on the world’s growing energy need, with several of the largest managers launching strategies targeting energy infrastructure. For example, KKR is currently in the market with a $7 billion fund targeting energy transition investments. As of April, Blackstone had raised $1 billion for its latest energy transition vehicle.

While fundraising activity has dipped in the past year, infrastructure investors are sitting on about $334 billion of dry powder. PitchBook data shows that the total capital raised by infrastructure funds reached a peak in 2022 with about $138.5 billion raised across 122 globally. The previous year, 2021, saw a peak in the total number of fund closes, with 146 closing on $132.7 billion.

...

Two of the largest fundraising hauls came at the end of the 2023, with Brookfield Asset Management gathering $28 billion for its fifth infrastructure fund in December. Around the same time, the United Arab Emirates announced $30 billion vehicle with the backing of BlackRock, TPG and Brookfield.

...

“Society depends on a digital economy and it wants very clearly an economy where energy is abundant and cleaner, and this creates great investment opportunities,” he said. “The private capital sector is extremely well positioned to meet those demands and the government’s role is not to fund it, but to put the right playing field in place.”

Pro ty, ktere zajimaji vysledky COPu, tak Carbon Brief porada free webinar

Hello,

Carbon Brief’s team of specialist journalists will be hosting a free webinar on Friday to discuss the key outcomes from COP28, which has just concluded in Dubai. We will also be answering your questions.

Time: Friday, 15 December, 3pm (GMT)

Moderator:

Leo Hickman, editor
Panelists:

Dr Simon Evans – senior policy editor and deputy editor
Daisy Dunne – special correspondent
Josh Gabbatiss – policy correspondent
Molly Lempriere – section editor for policy
Dr Giuliana Viglione – section editor for food, land and nature
Aruna Chandrasekhar – land, food systems and nature reporter
Orla Dwyer – land, food systems and nature reporter
Anika Patel – China analyst
Questions can be submitted in advance by email via webinar@carbonbrief.org, or via Twitter using the hashtag #CBWebinar.

Please register in advance via this link:

Webinar Registration - Zoom
https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register/1217024699312/WN_jOQYO1SyRASI-2stNuEI-w#/registration

Neco na dobrou noc

Kemp, L., Xu, C., Depledge, J., Ebi, K. L., Gibbins, G., Kohler, T. A., Rockström, j., Scheffer, M., Schellnhuber, H. J., Steffen, W., & Lenton, T. M. (2022). Climate Endgame: Exploring catastrophic climate change scenarios. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 119(34), e2108146119.

Prudent risk management requires consideration of bad-to-worst-case scenarios. Yet, for climate change, such potential futures are poorly understood. Could anthropogenic climate change result in worldwide societal collapse or even eventual human extinction? At present, this is a dangerously underexplored topic. Yet there are ample reasons to suspect that climate change could result in a global catastrophe. Analyzing the mechanisms for these extreme consequences could help galvanize action, improve resilience, and inform policy, including emergency responses. We outline current knowledge about the likelihood of extreme climate change, discuss why understanding bad-to-worst cases is vital, articulate reasons for concern about catastrophic outcomes, define key terms, and put forward a research agenda. The proposed agenda covers four main questions: 1) What is the potential for climate change to drive mass extinction events? 2) What are the mechanisms that could result in human mass mortality and morbidity? 3) What are human societies' vulnerabilities to climate-triggered risk cascades, such as from conflict, political instability, and systemic financial risk? 4) How can these multiple strands of evidence—together with other global dangers—be usefully synthesized into an “integrated catastrophe assessment”? It is time for the scientific community to grapple with the challenge of better understanding catastrophic climate change.

https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2108146119

TUHO: uz si vzpominam, byla to asi negatovni reakce na schellnhuberovy spekulace (vc ty nosny kapacity 1 mld lidi pri 4 stupnich)

https://twitter.com/CodeRedEarth/status/1648053194981888000?s=19


https://twitter.com/MichaelEMann/status/1655563454109962242?s=19


https://twitter.com/MichaelEMann/status/1655602564463747074?s=19

SHEFIK:
It is estimated that there are now trillions of microplastic particles in the marine environment. 

Microplastics are of concern because of their widespread presence in the oceans and the potential physical and toxicological risks they pose to organisms.
Microplastics can be ingested by a wide range of animals and have been found in organisms ranging in size from small invertebrates to large mammals. 
Laboratory studies have shown there is potential for this to lead to harmful effects and it is estimated that unless we change our ways there, within this century, will be wide scale and potentially irreversible effects in the natural environment. 
While there are still many unanswered questions about the amounts of microplastic debris that might be accumulating and the types of harm they could present, there is a growing consensus we should urgently take action to reduce the flow of plastic into the environment.

TADEAS: omlouvám se zase za toho Fishera, ale na vánoce (svátek konzumu je na četbu tohoto typu ideální :-)) mám připravenou tuhle knihu, tak uvidím, jestli tam s něčím příjde. On byl dost uznávanej kritik úskalí kapitalismu/kap. realismu a na sklonku života (spáchal sebevraždu jakožto výsledek celoživotního boje s depresemi) se snažil více hledat naději a přicházet místo kritiky s pozitivní vizí (jedna z jeho teorií se jmenovala "acid communism" kde se lehce vracel do 60. let :-)). V K-Punk sborníku je víceméně jen kritika, v Capitalist Realism se už snaží ty východiska nalézat v poslední kapitole. Ale přišlo mi trochu, že jak je velice trefnej v pojmenovávání toho, co je špatně, tak je dost stručnej a vágní v tom, jak by to mohlo být lépe. Přišel tam s pár nápady typu "věci na příděl", což nevím no. Tak snad v téhle tam bude těch pozitivních vizí víc. Je to propojený s tím pohledem Adama Curtise, jak byly poznatky moderní psychologie použity na modulaci tužeb lidí. A teď stojíme před výzvou ty libidózní síly nasměrovat někam jinam, protože tímto směrem to už asi moc dlouho nepůjde...

Postcapitalist Desire: The Final Lectures by Mark Fisher
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/54650835-postcapitalist-desire

"Beginning with that most fundamental of questions — “Do we really want what we say we want?” — Fisher explores the relationship between desire and capitalism, and wonders what new forms of desire we might still excavate from the past, present, and future. From the emergence and failure of the counterculture in the 1970s to the continued development of his left-accelerationist line of thinking, this volume charts a tragically interrupted course for thinking about the raising of a new kind of consciousness, and the cultural and political implications of doing so.

For Fisher, this process of consciousness raising was always, fundamentally, psychedelic — just not in the way that we might think…"

XCHAOS: az na to, ze to s tou syrii neni zas tak jisty, jak by si nekteri asi prali

In the case of Syria, there was a mass exodus of farming families from the worst drought-affected areas in the north of the country (the agricultural bread basket of Syria) to the nearby cities of Damascus, Hama and Aleppo. However, what role this migration played in helping to fuel the uprisings and then the conflict is far from clear.

The initial protests broke out in the city of Daraa, in the south-east of the country, in response to the arrests and mistreatment of a group of youths allegedly caught painting anti-government graffiti. What started as a provincial uprising spread to other parts of the country where deep-seated socio-political dissatisfaction had been simmering for years.

What this sequence of events highlights is that the conflict is a culmination of several interconnected factors that had been steadily developing over decades. While drought, migration and conflict may all be linked by association, such links are not established facts and, in the case of Syria, they are difficult to gauge.

pripadne:
Earlier studies trying to show a link between climate change and conflict have been rebutted by some scientists, and it is not clear how far this new study will go toward settling the issue.

Thomas Bernauer, a professor of political science at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zurich who has been critical of some earlier studies, said he was skeptical about this one as well. “The evidence for the claim that this drought contributed to the outbreak of civil war in Syria is very speculative and not backed up by robust scientific evidence,”

pripadne:
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0962629816301822
In light of the above we can now return to our main questions: is there clear and reliable evidence that climate change-related drought in Syria was a contributory factor in the onset of the country's civil war?; and, if and where yes, was it as significant a contributory factor as is claimed in the existing academic and expert literature? On each step of the claimed causal chain, our answers are no. We find that there is no clear and reliable evidence that anthropogenic climate change was a factor in northeast Syria's 2006/07–2008/09 drought; we find that, while the 2006/07–2008/09 drought in northeast Syria will have contributed to migration, this migration was not on the scale claimed in the existing literature, and was, in all probability, more caused by economic liberalisation than drought; and we find that there is no clear and reliable evidence that drought-related migration was a contributory factor in civil war onset. In our assessment, there is thus no good evidence to conclude that global climate change-related drought in Syria was a contributory causal factor in the country's civil war.



pak jsi mi jeste nezareagoval na tohle, jestli k tomu mas nejake poradne data, ze treba pred sto, dveste, trista lety bylo vsechno uplne jinak nez dnes .... nebo jestli ted vsechno merime meritkem od posledni doby ledobe (cca1875), tj nejchladnejsi obdobi za poslednich deset tisic let
"Ale díky klimatické změně poroste jejich četnost a pravděpodobnost. Ale to měřítko, v jakém se to celé děje, je tak obrovsky mimo mísu"

mysite, ze s tim jak se bude diky zvysene teplote a teplote oceanu odparovat vice vody, ze bude na polech vice snezit?
jak v dobe ledove mohly ledovce nabrat tak silenych rozmeru, nekde se ta voda/snih musela porad v atmosfere brat? so many questions...

A tady celkem vyzivnej 40 strankovej clanek z historie klimatologie...

Climate modelling is now a mature discipline approaching its fortieth birthday. The need for valid climate forecasts
has been underlined by the recognition that human activities are now modifying the climate. The complex nature of
the climate system has resulted in the development of a surprisingly large array of modelling tools. Some are relatively
simple, such as the earth systems and energy balance models (EBMs), while others are highly sophisticated models
which challenge the fastest speeds of the most powerful supercomputers. Indeed, this discipline of the latter half of
the twentieth century is so critically dependent on the availability of a means of undertaking powerful calculations
that its evolution has matched that of the digital computer. The multi-faceted nature of the climate system demands
high quality, and global observations and innovative parameterizations through which processes which cannot be
described or calculated explicitly are captured to the extent deemed necessary. Interestingly, results from extremely
simple, as well as highly complex and many intermediate model types are drawn upon today for effective formulation
and evaluation of climate policies. This paper discusses some of the important developments during the first 40 years
of climate modelling from the first models of the global atmosphere to today’s models, which typically consist of
integrated multi-component representations of the full climate system. The pressures of policy-relevant questions
more clearly underline the tension between the need for evaluation against quality data and the unending pressure to
improve spatial and temporal resolutions of climate models than at any time since the inception of climate modelling.
Copyright © 2001 Royal Meteorological Society.

http://www.pik-potsdam.de/~stefan/Lectures/modellierung/mcguffie+henderson-s-01.pdf

Prudent risk management requires consideration of bad-to-worst-case scenarios. Yet, for climate change, such potential futures are poorly understood. Could anthropogenic climate change result in worldwide societal collapse or even eventual human extinction? At present, this is a dangerously underexplored topic. Yet there are ample reasons to suspect that climate change could result in a global catastrophe. Analyzing the mechanisms for these extreme consequences could help galvanize action, improve resilience, and inform policy, including emergency responses. We outline current knowledge about the likelihood of extreme climate change, discuss why understanding bad-to-worst cases is vital, articulate reasons for concern about catastrophic outcomes, define key terms, and put forward a research agenda. The proposed agenda covers four main questions: 1) What is the potential for climate change to drive mass extinction events? 2) What are the mechanisms that could result in human mass mortality and morbidity? 3) What are human societies' vulnerabilities to climate-triggered risk cascades, such as from conflict, political instability, and systemic financial risk? 4) How can these multiple strands of evidence—together with other global dangers—be usefully synthesized into an “integrated catastrophe assessment”? It is time for the scientific community to grapple with the challenge of better understanding catastrophic climate change.

https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2108146119

Jinak začal jsem googlit... a sněžení CO2 v Antarktidě is a thing!
climatology - Are Ice Ages Affected by the Freezing Out of CO2 in Antarctica? - Earth Science Stack Exchange
https://earthscience.stackexchange.com/questions/18895/are-ice-ages-affected-by-the-freezing-out-of-co2-in-antarctica