GRENDAL:
Prave protoze je to tak moc provazane tak PO vyvola hospodarksou krizi,

Tu časovou souslednost vidím opačně, hospodářská krize významně pozmění většinu prognóz renomovaných energetických agentur, neboť se výrazně sníží poptávka po energiích. Hubbertova křivka zlomu, jakož i její obdoby, které prezentovala IEA a spol., vycházely z předpokladu neustále rostoucí poptávky po energiích. Naneštěstí však to není z hlediska PO dobrá zpráva, protože důsledkem toho bude výrazně nižší množství realizovaných energeticky, ekologicky, technologicky a zejména ekonomicky náročných projektů, jejichž cílem by mělo být nahrazovat tak jako tak docházející ropu z velkých polí. Čili korelace mezi HDP a produkcí ropy nepochybně je a dost výrazná a hodně pochybuju o tom, že na to bude automobilový trh pružně reagovat.

Podrobněji to popisuje Nicole Foss na blogu The Automatic Earth:

"And I think over the next few years, finance is going to rewrite the energy debate. Which is not to say that, you know, I in any way deny peak oil. Obviously, I think peak oil is a fact, is a given, but I think that the way finance is going to interact with peak oil is absolutely critical. And I would say though that you can look at peak oil in two ways, you can look at the finances of peak oil, which is what I used to do at The Oil Drum when I was editor at The Oil Drum Canada, and what the whole Oil Drum site has always done, you can also look at it as a phenomenon of human herding behavior, which is completely divorced from the science, this is people's perception of oil supply, of relative scarcity versus glut.

And if you look at the price maximums, the price maximums of oil are driven by perception. Those are not necessarily reflective of the science at any given time. And I was saying at the time when we saw oil at $147 a barrel my view was, our view at The Auotmatic Earth was that we were about to see oil prices fall off a cliff, because of what was about to happen in finance, and that's exactly in fact what happened.

And I think the runup we've had secondarily, I think we're going to see the same kind of thing, I think oil prices are going to fall a long way because we're going to see demand fall as we move into depression. But demand collapse is going to set up a supply collapse. While it buys you time initially, so that finance is the driver not so much energy supply, because you still have energy supply geared to a previous higher level of demand, so that really will drastically undercut price support. However moving forward, low prices are likely to mean no investment, no exploration, no drilling, no maintenance, and all of these things are going to set up a supply collapse a few years down the line.

So what financial crisis does, while it buys you time initially, it aggravates the situation with peak oil in the longer term. And by longer term I mean maybe only five years, I'm not talking a long way out here. But already we're seeing people cutting back on drilling, I think for instance natural gas [?] in Canada, people are cutting back on drilling because the prices are not high enough. And I think we're going to see a lot of that kind of dynamic.

So we're going to have, this is going to be remembered, I think, as a time of financial crisis for the next few years, but beyond that, I think the energy crisis is really going to bite. And if we get to a point where the economy is trying to recover again, it is going to hit a hard energy ceiling at a very much lower level than was previously available. And at that point, the limits are hard."

http://theautomaticearth.blogspot.com/2010/09/september-4-2010-jim-puplava-interviews.html

XCHAOS: je podstatny rozdil, jestli se ten negativni trend, konzum, zacne vytracet kvuli zmenan ve spolecnosti z vule te spolecnosti - z prirozene spolecenske zmeny, nebo jestli je k tomu ta spolecnost donucena a to navic v relativne kratke dobe.

a jeje, dalsi technooptimista...

GRENDAL: v posledních letech se ropou plýtvalo natolik, že pokles těžby prostě nemůže znamenat katastrofu už z principu.

jak jsme tady rozebírali už dříve: pokles spotřeby ropy je z mnoha důvodů v podstatě žádoucí, je to pozitivní trend. nelze být SOUČASNĚ kritikem konzumní společnosti a neustálého růstu spotřeby - a SOUČASNĚ k tomu navíc být vyděšený, pokud se tento negativní trend začne vytrácet... vidím tu velký vnitřní rozpor, který čím dál tím více bije do očí: prostě kritici společnosti by ve chvíli, kdy se tolik kritizované negativní trendy začínají lámat, měli pozastavit svojí kritiku a zamyslet se, zda není čas na to na chvíli změnit tón - a povšimnout si, že teď už se něco dělá lépe...