...a co kdyby ani ropa a ani elektro-baterie?

Nové řešení spalovacího motoru snižující emise CO2 o 90 procent funguje velmi jednoduše, může změnit běh dějin | Autoforum.cz
https://www.autoforum.cz/technika/nove-reseni-spalovaciho-motoru-snizujici-emise-co2-o-90-procent-funguje-naramne-jednoduse-muze-zmenit-beh-dejin/

Thursday evening (July 27, 2023) Seaver Wang of the Breakthrough Institute published an attack on 100% renewable papers and took specific aim at the group at LUT University in Finland lead by prof Christian Breyer. The attack states 100% RE models are “bunk” because they use unrealistically low prices for renewable energy and are overly simplistic.

My rebuttal to Wang’s attack shows Wang’s criticism contains errors and applies to most energy models (not just those from LUT or 100% Renewables research). But I had a very respectful and honest exchange with both Wang and prof Breyer before publishing this text that makes me hopeful. I think the attack stresses that ecomodernists and renewable energy (RE) proponents increasingly have a shared reality which may enable an evidence-based debate instead of mud-slinging ad-hominems. The next step is joining forces to provide the world with more progressive scenarios for tackling climate change. (What can I say: I’m an optimist.)

How a recent attack on 100% renewable models might end the trench warfare and benefit our climate - NEON Research
https://neonresearch.nl/thebti-rebuttal/

Energy storage bidding price -50% YoY v Cine

The Energy Storage Market is Booming: Anticipated Surge in Growth Rates- EnergyTrend
https://m.energytrend.com/research/20230731-34432.html

The Global Energy Storage Market Demand Report by TrendForce predicts a substantial surge in new installed capacity for global energy storage, reaching an impressive 43.43GW/95.73GWh in 2023. This anticipated growth represents year-on-year increases of 90.4% and 111.7%.

...

Based on TrendForce data for 2023, the U.S. energy storage market is poised for significant growth. The positive trend in PV installation capacity and the implementation of the ITC tax credit, which now includes independent energy storage, are expected to fuel a continued increase in energy storage installations. Projections indicate that the new installed capacity is set to reach approximately 11.98GW/30.07GWh in 2023.
In Europe, the installed capacity is also expected to experience growth, driven by the continued promotion of subsidy policies for PV storage installations. Household storage yields remain high, and it is estimated that the added new energy storage installed capacity could reach around 8.47GW/15.69GWh in 2023. The global energy storage market is currently in a phase of rapid expansion, with electrochemical energy storage emerging as a leading contributor to this growth. This trend is expected to persist, making electrochemical energy storage the primary incremental contributor in the future. China, the United States, and Europe continue to stand as the main global markets in the new energy storage sector.

SHEFIK: Maroko jsou docela v pohode typci, ted jsme tam dodali software. Alzirani jsou uplne jini, takovi mnohem linejsi, zvykli na bohatstvi z plynu.

PES: lepsi investovat tam, odkud proudi uprchlici, nez tam kde penize zneuzivaj k vyvolavani konfliktu a proudeni uprchliku :)

JIMIQ: je to na prd, protože v tom všeobjímajícím dirigismu se posléze prakticky nedá či nevyplatí dělat vůbec nic...

PES: kdysi davno byly zakony stylem co neni zakazano je dovoleno, ted je to uz obracene
Na neco je to asi dobry, na neco naprd, nenadelas nic

SHEFIK: tyhle legislativní stráfy fakt nechápu, proč se musíme ubyrokratizovat. Co je na tomhle tak složité - o stavbě nad agro si musí rozhodnout zemědělec, jediná rozumná podmínky (legislativní) je, aby to neznehodnotilo půdu (s nutností vrátit do původního stavu po demontáži). Připojení je věc opět investora (zemědělce či někoho, kdo si to s tím zemědělcem domluví) a energetické soustavy...

The Hydrogen Stream: Germany to use hydrogen ‘in all sectors’ – pv magazine International
https://www.pv-magazine.com/2023/07/28/the-hydrogen-stream-germany-to-use-hydrogen-in-all-sectors/

BloombergNEF has reported that the levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH2) has increased slightly this year due to inflation and higher financing costs. However, it says that green hydrogen (H2) will become competitive with existing gray H2 plants operating at marginal cost in five markets by 2030. The analysts say that green hydrogen will be cheaper than new blue H2 by 2028 using Chinese alkaline electrolyzers and by 2033 using Western alkaline electrolyzers, undercutting blue H2 by one to three years earlier in all modeled markets.

Elektromibilita - Chytlo to už ve středu, ale dodnes to nedokázali dostat pod kontrolu (a to jsou na moři, voda všude kolem, ale nejspíš akorát "ke dnu")

U Nizozemska třetí den hoří loď se sty elektroaut, nelze ji kvůli nim uhasit - iDNES.cz
https://www.idnes.cz/zpravy/zahranicni/nizozemsko-trajekt-elektroautomobil-pozar-ekologicka-katastrofa.A230728_111601_zahranicni_tbr

MAKROUSEK:

1) to je prece nesmysl koukat se 100 let zpet, pri konecnem mnozstvi. To vubec nic nevypovida o budoucnosti a uz vubec to nezahrnuje predikci cen pri soucasny poptavce.

2) zavadeni OZE ale prece nezvysuje cenu fosilni energie, melo by tomu byt naopak, protoze jde o substituty. A to je cela message meho prvnihi prispevku. Fosil zdrazuje (=zabiji tvymi slovy), takze investice do OZE v tuhle chvili davaji nejvetsi smysl, abychom tu zabijackou apokalypsu zmirnili

3) najednou koukas za 10 let :)) pouzivani elektromobilu z aliexpressu se solarnimi panely z aliexpressu uz ale v africe dokaze 'zachranovat zivoty' dle tve ekonomicke uvahy uz ted

4) australie je na 36,5% renewables elektricke energie rocne a nahrazuje v tonhle energetickem mixu nerentabilni uhelky rovnou bateriema v radu stovek MWh. 70% jejich fosilu jde na vyvoz, neni lokalne konzumovany.

SHEFIK: 1) Jak dlouhy jeste chces obdobi, 100 let nestaci?
2) Snizovani chudoby
3) Nevim, existuji protichudne vypocty, uvidime za par desitek let.
4) Australie je ropny stat, ktery jede na fosilu, pro ne muzou byt OZE drahy jakkoli (stejne jako treba pro Saudskou Arabii nebo Katar).

atd.

NYRLEM: vzdyt si nedavno sam uznal, ze solar se zaplati (za urciteho energetickeho mixu a za soucasnych technologii a vyrobnich nakladu, ktere se budou menit) - NYRLEM

A to jsme se bavili o CR. Kdyz se podivas na ceny za ktere je solarni energie generovana jinde, mas jasnej business case, bez oligopolu, politiky, korupce, decentralizovanej v jakykoliv komunite, sustainable na long run, nezpusobujici zadny umrti, naopak, snizujici cenu za energie vyraznym zpusobem.

Treba PPA 0,0104$/kWh = 0,2288 kc / kWh

https://taiyangnews.info/markets/world-record-low-solar-bid-of-0-0104kwh-in-saudi-arabia/

Takze se radeji pred dalsim pokracovanim prinosne diskuze zeptam - co presne oba rozporujete? Pac pokud jde o puvodni prispevek, na ktery Makrousek demagogicky reagoval, uz jsme uplne mimo misu.

MAKROUSEK:

1) do kdy ta cena bude klesat a dokdy nemusime resit alternativu?

2) jaky ma spalovani fosilu dopady, ktere v cene nejsou zapocitane, at uz geopoliticke s nasledky umrti, nebo environmentalni s nasledky umrti?

3) jezdit na elektriku/elektromobilem je drazsi?

4) jaky presne ma OZE prime dopady na zdrazovani, napr. v australii?

Atd.