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    TUHOKlimaticka zmena / Thank you so much for ruining my day
    SHEFIK
    SHEFIK --- ---
    dotace a subvence samy o sobe to asi nespasi :(

    Is The Energy Transition Really Accelerating?
    https://www.forbes.com/...davidblackmon/2020/09/05/is-the-energy-transition-really-accelerating/amp/

    The IEA recognizes these and other realities in its own study released this week, titled “Key World Energy Statistics 2020.” The report takes a detailed look at the history of energy supply and consumption and also projects the future through 2040. Even under its rosy, “Sustainable Development Scenario,” under which government aggressively ramp up their mandates and subsidies promoting renewables and EV adoption, IEA still sees fossil fuels providing the vast majority of the world’s energy needs two decades from now. Under its more realistic “State Policies Scenario,” IEA foresees fossil fuels supplying over 2/3rds of global energy in 2040.
    PER2
    PER2 --- ---
    A record amount of the world’s largest tropical wetland has been lost to the fires sweeping Brazil this year
    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/04/world/americas/brazil-wetlands-fires-pantanal.html
    PER2
    PER2 --- ---
    Ocean carbon uptake widely underestimated -- ScienceDaily
    https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/09/200904090312.htm
    PER2
    PER2 --- ---
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    A u Japonska mezitim...

    Super Typhoon Haishen has been maintaining its powerful high-end Category 4 strength through Friday and Saturday. The peak sustained winds were at 155 mph (135 knots or 250 km/h). Haishen is the Earth’s 3rd strongest storm of 2020 and is expected to hit Japan and South Korea on Sunday.
    Haishen is expected to be one of the most intense storms on record for Japan. The steongest storm ever hit Japan was a Category 5 Super Typhoon Very that struck Japan back in September 1959.

    Super Typhoon Haishen expected to be one of the most intense storms on record for Japan
    https://www.severe-weather.eu/tropical-weather/haishen-japan-typhoon-mk/
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    Sudan

    Sudan suffers devastating flood as Nile rises to highest level in over a century. More than 100 people passed away, almost 100 thousand homes have been destroyed and about half a million people are now homeless.



    Sudan declares state of emergency as record flooding kills 99 people | World news | The Guardian
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/05/sudan-declares-state-of-emergency-record-flooding
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    George Monbiot | 55 Tufton Street | Writers Rebel | Extinction Rebellion UK
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yvtg9si7BYY
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    Large Wildfires Burn in California - Aug. 2020
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PEDV1z2kxO4
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    California Is Fighting Over Two Dozen Major Wildfires — In The Middle of a Pandemic
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BIbyrclmfTo
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    Kalifornie




    SHEFIK
    SHEFIK --- ---
    GOJATLA: ja myslim ze jedinej, kdo se brani sou ignoranti, nebo neznali tematu. bohuzel bejvaj ve vedeni statu

    z pohledu firem: carbon tax je stejne tak prilezitost pro spoustu firem. olej by jednou dosel, pokud se pustej do vodiku, maj svy zisky nesmrtelny... uhelny baroni to maj ted trochu tezsi no :)

    z pohledu ekonomu je to spis jen otazka rychlosti, aby se nezadrely kola. Ymladris tu nedavno postovala studii, jaka taxa by to mela bejt a jak by se mela zvedat v pristich letech, aby to nezabrzdilo celej ten nas financni kolotoc

    kazdopadne firmy bez jasny legislativy budou naslapovat dost opatrne, aby nesly protismeru dotacim atd., takze by usa, eu a cina mely pohnout asap, aby se to konecne naplno roztocilo

    v tomhle je treba fajn eu, ze uz dorucilo hydrogen strategy:

    https://ec.europa.eu/...hUKEwj_jvnh_NLrAhWEoVwKHf7FAN8QFjABegQIAhAH&usg=AOvVaw2iwcGeqPYL2Pv0qpM26cdq
    GOJATLA
    GOJATLA --- ---
    SHEFIK: OK, ber mě s rezervou, mám vyhraněný názor, ale moc o ekonomice nevím :-)

    HDP asi není to co by nás mělo trápit nejvíc. Spíš to vidím tak, že máme poslední šanci zabránit oteplení o 4C. Buď zákazem spalování fosilu, kvótami, nebo pomocí razantní carbon tax / dividend. Tomu se brání průmysl, který si chce udržet snadné výdělky ale taky ekonomové, kteří v tom vidí hrozbu recese, asi oprávněně. Naše ekonomika je postavená na dluhu a když ji zaškrtíme, sesype se jako v 2008. To je důvod zešedivět, ale jinou možnost nemáme. Radši krizi a občanskou válku, než konec civilizace, ne?

    Decoupling třeba je možný, ale ne dostatečně rychle, už je na to pozdě. Jestli to přežijeme, tak budeme mít možnost ho zkusit.
    SHEFIK
    SHEFIK --- ---
    SHEFIK: oprava: takze pokud nedostanes za rok 2019 pridano, si idealni kandidat na degrowth, protoze si toho koupis o 1,44% min :) (cca 500kc)
    SHEFIK
    SHEFIK --- ---
    Neni to muj obor, rad se necham poucit. Takze kdyz kazdy rok vytisknem 10% penez, tak ziskame 10% rust HDP a nemusime pri tom zvysovat spotrebu? Takovy rust asi muze byt udrzitelny,ale je to rust jen na papire.

    ne, pokud das do obehu vic penez, tzn. das vic penez firmam a lidem, ta spotreba, vcetne hdp se samozrejme zvysi, pokud lide tech 10% nedaji do banky na uspory. proto rikam, ze kdyz nalijes dalsi penize do ekonomiky, tezko dosahnes degrowth. ty veci jdou proti sobe. je to jako bys rikal, ze dostanes vyplatu, ale budes mit min penez nez mas.

    ...

    ok, nevedel jsem, ze se rozlisuje jeste hdp ocistene o inflaci (real gdp), pro presnejsi mezirocni srovnani. dava to smysl. nicmene to na cele veci moc nemeni.

    pokud nalijes penize do ekonomiky, a lide se budou chovat konzistentne, jak jsem psal vyse, dojde k navyseni hdp

    ...

    on cely ten rust je vetsinou u vyspelych ekonomik jen rust na papire - protoze porad potrebujes udrzet lidi v praci.

    takze nekdo dostava mzdu - 30k
    inflace v eu je za 2019 1,44%
    rust hdp v eu je za 2019 1,6%
    nula od nuly temer pojde

    takze pokud nedostanes za rok 2019 pridano, si idealni kandidat na degrowth, protoze si toho koupis o 1,6% min :) (cca 500kc)

    proto je rust potreba, a proto seriozni firmy navysujou mezirocne platy.

    samozrejme u rozvojovych statu je to jine, ale to trva jen tak dlouho, dokud se nesrovnaji cenove/platove hladiny a zivotni standard.
    KEB
    KEB --- ---
    TADEAS: a pan TUHO se na pár dní odmlčí... :-D
    GOJATLA
    GOJATLA --- ---
    SHEFIK: Neni to muj obor, rad se necham poucit. Takze kdyz kazdy rok vytisknem 10% penez, tak ziskame 10% rust HDP a nemusime pri tom zvysovat spotrebu? Takovy rust asi muze byt udrzitelny,ale je to rust jen na papire.

    Nominal GDP refers to the GDP calculated at current market prices. Nominal GDP tends to rise with the money supply, but this is not always the case. Real GDP–also referred to as "constant-price," "inflation-corrected" or "constant-dollar GDP–is an inflation-adjusted measure of a country's GDP. Real GDP does not have as clear of a relationship with the money supply. Real GDP tends to be more influenced by the productivity of economic agents and businesses.
    SHEFIK
    SHEFIK --- ---
    YMLADRIS: ale ono se da shodnout i na principech ekonomie, jinak by nebylo mozne ji ucit. problem je v tom, ze ty principy se projevuji v case a maji hodne specifik / funguji za urcitych podminek + ti do toho vstupuje 8 miliard individui. ekonomie nejcasteji popisuje dokonaly trh, jenze ten neni, tzn. nabidka s poptavkou se v realite nikdy nepotka, je to neustaly boj a konvergence/divergence. je to jako snazit se zobecnit, jak se chovat k lidem - psychologie a sociologie existuje, ale stejne musis mit individualni pristup...

    zaroven, kazdy z tech nastroju je validni, ale ma svoje vyhody, nevyhody a podminky za kterych se ty vyhody a nevyhody realizuji, a ty je potreba konkretne posuzovat.

    na prikladech, dejme tomu, ze nejoptimalnejsi je scenar se 100 body (vymyslim si):
    a) 10 bodu - tisknout penize neomezene v 1 roce a udelat toho pro klima co nejvic - 10 bodu pro to, ze dalsi rok ekonomika zkrachuje a s ni i plany na klima
    b) 50 bodu tisknout penize rovnomerne v prubehu 10 let, pri dodrzeni inflace max 5% - ok, protoze ekonomika i lide se stihnou prizpusobit, vcetne rustu platu
    c) 70 bodu carbon tax - rovnomerne zatizeni dle spotreby (tedy dle utracenych penez), progresivni zvedani carbon taxy, dle kupni sily obyvatelstva, nastartovani poptavky po alternativach
    d) xx? bodu tisknout penize rovnomerne v prubehu 10 let, pri dodrzeni inflace max 5% + carbon tax - budou na to lidi mit? nevyvola to uz chudobu, nemoci, demonstrace, odvrat od klimatickych cilu atd? nikdo nevi

    uved jsem jen 2 nastroje a uz je tezky hodnotit. a prave proto, ze tech nastroju je tolik, je tezke dat dohromady ten holisticky obrazek a predpovedet budoucnost.

    dulezity je ale hlavne s necim zacit co nejdriv :) optimalizovat se to da vzdycky po ceste...

    ....

    a k centralni bance - ta ma za ukol tu menovou stabilitu, protoze kde neni menova stabilita, neni stabilni stat a pak tezko realizujes jakykoliv cile, vcetne tech klimatickych... proto musi zustat neutralni
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    Aktivistky ze Vzpoury koťátek a desítky odpůrců uhlí obsadily velkolom u Mostu - iDNES.cz
    https://www.idnes.cz/usti/zpravy/obsazeni-rypadlo-lom-vrsany.A200905_091518_usti-zpravy_bse

    Čtveřice aktivistek ze skupiny Vzpoura koťátek obsadila v sobotu ráno rypadlo v lomu ve Vršanech na Mostecku. Blokádu chtějí vydržet několik dní. Ženy obsadily skrývkový stroj, který byl v chodu, těžební společnost tak musela přerušit těžbu. Dopoledne pak do lomu pronikla více než stovka ekologických aktivistů. Policie postupně zajistila 105 z nich, aby zjistila jejich totožnost.
    YMLADRIS
    YMLADRIS --- ---
    SHEFIK: ok. v podstate mi jde asi o to, ze na fyzikalnich zakonech se da shodnout s nejakym robust consensem. ale na ekonomickych "zakonech" se neshodne nikdo. tadeas rika centralni banky, ty rikas carbon tax, varoufakis rika green new deal... nevidim zpusob, jak bych mohla zastavat nejaky kvalifikovany stanovisko (pokud nechci neco jako "on je moc levicovy a to z principu odmitam" atd), cili dal to neresim, cili je fajn ze nejaky stanoviska mate ... :)

    https://www.bloomberg.com/...020-09-04/central-bankers-could-be-but-aren-t-saviors-of-climate-change

    Central banks could favor green, or at least non-polluting industries via their asset purchasing programs, or make it more difficult for banks to lend to high emitting industries. These measures have been discussed in NGFS reports and elsewhere, but there’s little sign of them being implemented. Christine Lagarde, the new president of the European Central Bank, has hinted that she’s open to taking more active steps, but it’s far from clear that will actually happen. One staunch opponent to changing the status quo is Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann, who’s also a member of the ECB’s governing council. “Our mandate is price stability, and the implementation of our monetary policy must respect the principle of market neutrality,” Weidmann said in October. “And there could be conflicting goals as soon as monetary policy dictates that you need to step on the brake and reduce the purchase of bonds.”

    ... podobne mluvi i ten borec z CNB, ze nejdulezitejsi pro nej je aby hlavne nekopal za ekologii nebo proti ekologii, protoze to by byl konec jeho "neutrality"
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    Greenland ice sheet reached tipping point 20 years ago, new study finds
    https://phys.org/news/2020-09-greenland-ice-sheet-years

    While the ice sheet's decline has been well-documented over the past two decades, this latest study, led by Michalea King of the Byrd Polar and Climate Research Center, found that widespread glacier retreat helped push the ice sheet from a balanced to an imbalanced state. This work suggests that even if the oceans and atmosphere were to stop warming today, the ice sheet will continue to lose more ice than it will gain.

    In the decades leading up to the turn of the century, the ice sheet was in a state of relative equilibrium. The ice lost in a given year would be replenished by wintertime snowfall, and the sheet maintained a near-constant mass. But beginning around the year 2000, ice discharged through outlet glaciers—channels that flow outward to the sea—started to outpace annual snowfall that, in a balanced year, would replenish lost ice. The authors sifted through 40 years of satellite data, tracking outlet glacier velocity, thickness, and calving front position over time to determine the rate of ice loss. The shift they found represents a tipping point that is unlikely to be reversible in the near future. King told GlacierHub, "It's like a gear change… we've accelerated the drainage at the edge of the ice sheet, and now… we expect mass loss to be the new norm for the ice sheet in the near future."


    https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-020-0001-2

    We compare decadal variability in discharge and calving front position and find that increased glacier discharge was due almost entirely to the retreat of glacier fronts, rather than inland ice sheet processes, with a remarkably consistent speedup of 4–5% per km of retreat across the ice sheet. We show that widespread retreat between 2000 and 2005 resulted in a step-increase in discharge and a switch to a new dynamic state of sustained mass loss that would persist even under a decline in surface melt
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