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    TUHOKlimaticka zmena / Thank you so much for ruining my day


    "Given the sheer enormity of climate change, it’s okay to be depressed, to grieve. But please, don’t stay there too long. Join me in pure, unadulterated, righteous anger."

    "I don’t want your hope. I don’t want you to be hopeful. I want you to panic. I want you to feel the fear I feel every day. And then I want you to act. Once you start to act, the hope is everywhere."

    "Our best scientists tell us insistently that a calamity is unfolding, that the life-support systems of the Earth are being damaged in ways that threaten our survival. Yet in the face of these facts we carry on as usual."

    “We’ve got to stop burning fossil fuels. So many aspects of life depend on fossil fuels, except for music and love and education and happiness. These things, which hardly use fossil fuels, are what we must focus on.”

    A nejde o to, že na to nemáme dostatečné technologie, ty by na řešení použít šly, ale chybí nám vůle a představivost je využít. Zůstáváme při zemi, přemýšlíme až moc rezervovaně. Technologický pokrok to sám o sobě nevyřeší. Problém jsme my, ne technologické nástroje.

    Rostouci hladiny oceanu, zmena atmosferickeho proudeni, zmeny v distribuci srazek a sucha. Zmeny karbonoveho, fosforoveho a dusikoveho cyklu, okyselovani oceanu. Jake jsou bezpecnostni rizika a jake potencialni klady dramatickych zmen fungovani zemskeho systemu?
    Ale take jak funguji masove dezinformacni kampane ropneho prumyslu a boj o verejne mineni na prahu noveho klimatickeho rezimu post-holocenu.
    rozbalit záhlaví
    KEB
    KEB --- ---
    TADEAS: a pan TUHO se na pár dní odmlčí... :-D
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    1 odpověď+3
    Aktivistky ze Vzpoury koťátek a desítky odpůrců uhlí obsadily velkolom u Mostu - iDNES.cz
    https://www.idnes.cz/usti/zpravy/obsazeni-rypadlo-lom-vrsany.A200905_091518_usti-zpravy_bse

    Čtveřice aktivistek ze skupiny Vzpoura koťátek obsadila v sobotu ráno rypadlo v lomu ve Vršanech na Mostecku. Blokádu chtějí vydržet několik dní. Ženy obsadily skrývkový stroj, který byl v chodu, těžební společnost tak musela přerušit těžbu. Dopoledne pak do lomu pronikla více než stovka ekologických aktivistů. Policie postupně zajistila 105 z nich, aby zjistila jejich totožnost.
    YMLADRIS
    YMLADRIS --- ---
    1 odpověď
    SHEFIK: ok. v podstate mi jde asi o to, ze na fyzikalnich zakonech se da shodnout s nejakym robust consensem. ale na ekonomickych "zakonech" se neshodne nikdo. tadeas rika centralni banky, ty rikas carbon tax, varoufakis rika green new deal... nevidim zpusob, jak bych mohla zastavat nejaky kvalifikovany stanovisko (pokud nechci neco jako "on je moc levicovy a to z principu odmitam" atd), cili dal to neresim, cili je fajn ze nejaky stanoviska mate ... :)

    https://www.bloomberg.com/...020-09-04/central-bankers-could-be-but-aren-t-saviors-of-climate-change

    Central banks could favor green, or at least non-polluting industries via their asset purchasing programs, or make it more difficult for banks to lend to high emitting industries. These measures have been discussed in NGFS reports and elsewhere, but there’s little sign of them being implemented. Christine Lagarde, the new president of the European Central Bank, has hinted that she’s open to taking more active steps, but it’s far from clear that will actually happen. One staunch opponent to changing the status quo is Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann, who’s also a member of the ECB’s governing council. “Our mandate is price stability, and the implementation of our monetary policy must respect the principle of market neutrality,” Weidmann said in October. “And there could be conflicting goals as soon as monetary policy dictates that you need to step on the brake and reduce the purchase of bonds.”

    ... podobne mluvi i ten borec z CNB, ze nejdulezitejsi pro nej je aby hlavne nekopal za ekologii nebo proti ekologii, protoze to by byl konec jeho "neutrality"
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    +1
    Greenland ice sheet reached tipping point 20 years ago, new study finds
    https://phys.org/news/2020-09-greenland-ice-sheet-years

    While the ice sheet's decline has been well-documented over the past two decades, this latest study, led by Michalea King of the Byrd Polar and Climate Research Center, found that widespread glacier retreat helped push the ice sheet from a balanced to an imbalanced state. This work suggests that even if the oceans and atmosphere were to stop warming today, the ice sheet will continue to lose more ice than it will gain.

    In the decades leading up to the turn of the century, the ice sheet was in a state of relative equilibrium. The ice lost in a given year would be replenished by wintertime snowfall, and the sheet maintained a near-constant mass. But beginning around the year 2000, ice discharged through outlet glaciers—channels that flow outward to the sea—started to outpace annual snowfall that, in a balanced year, would replenish lost ice. The authors sifted through 40 years of satellite data, tracking outlet glacier velocity, thickness, and calving front position over time to determine the rate of ice loss. The shift they found represents a tipping point that is unlikely to be reversible in the near future. King told GlacierHub, "It's like a gear change… we've accelerated the drainage at the edge of the ice sheet, and now… we expect mass loss to be the new norm for the ice sheet in the near future."


    https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-020-0001-2

    We compare decadal variability in discharge and calving front position and find that increased glacier discharge was due almost entirely to the retreat of glacier fronts, rather than inland ice sheet processes, with a remarkably consistent speedup of 4–5% per km of retreat across the ice sheet. We show that widespread retreat between 2000 and 2005 resulted in a step-increase in discharge and a switch to a new dynamic state of sustained mass loss that would persist even under a decline in surface melt
    SHEFIK
    SHEFIK --- ---
    YMLADRIS: zajmava idea. imho to castecne kopiruje startup idea. s left-wing bych souhlasil. s "right-wing" technological singularity mi to uz prijde trochu sci-fi :)

    nicmene je fakt, ze pokrok je stale rychlejsi a spousta lidi se nestiha, nebo uz ani nechce prizpusobovat...
    SHEFIK
    SHEFIK --- ---
    1 odpověď
    YMLADRIS: ekonomie neni dogmaticka veda, a budoucnost nejde predpovidat. ja zacal chapat ten holistickej obrazek ekonomie az dlouho po vejsce, i kdyz bez toho studia bych asi nechapal doted, ale stejne vim prd...

    dle meho nazoru usa (ani jakakoliv jina zeme) neprestane splacet svuj dluh, to je totiz pro kazdou zemi konecna. zadna zeme si to nemuze dovolit, odrizla by se totiz od sveta a nikdo by ji uz nepujcil, nebo pujcil, ale s obrovskym urokem, kterej by nebyla schopna splatit. jakmile prestanes splacet svuj dluh, tak se tvoje mena (mimo jine i kvuli tvemu tisku vlastnich penez, protoze jinou moznost jak uplatit diry v rozpoctu uz nemas) driv nebo pozdejc dostane do hyperinflace. ostatni staty ihned devalvuji tvoji menu na menovych trzich. pak se stane, ze tvoji obyvatele napr. za 10000kc dostanou 1 euro. tzn. konec cestovani pro vsechny, vcetne predstavitelu statu. taky konec importu - i kdyby tvoje zeme byla sobestacna, dejme tomu na urovni nemecka, s vyrovnanym rozpoctem, tak potrebujes v case (10+ let) dovoz technologii, jinak zacnes driv nebo pozdejc zaostavat.

    muzes se podivat na priklad venezuely aktualne, kdo nevyved penize vcas, mohl byt multimilionar a ted je rad, ze ma co do huby.

    vetsinou se splaceni obrovskyho dluhu resi tak, ze tisknes prave ty penize a tim snizujes hodnotu meny, cimz vlastne platis mensi hodnotu, nez sis vypujcila. ale musis dat pozor na vysku inflace i rating zeme, protoze kdyz to rozehrajes moc vysoko, prijdou ty dopady, co jsem zminil. cely je to balancovani s mickem na spicce nosu. ani lide v centralnich bankach kolikrat nevi, jestli jednaji spravne a jestli to dopadne jak ocekavaji. nastesti tech financnich nastroju je vic, takze se s tim da hrat

    SHEFIK
    SHEFIK --- ---
    1 odpověď-1
    GOJATLA: prosimte, precti si ten vzorec hdp. neexistuje zadne realny nebo nerealny hdp, hdp je jen jedno. uz jen tenhle malej krok a konecne pochopis, ze rust vubec nesouvisi s materialnem, nebo ekologicnosti
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    +4
    This is South East Colorado near Springfield. Freshly broke virgin land around 1900. Zero fertilizer added and oats above the farmers head.

    This is the power of a healthy soil structure and diverse balanced biology. Obviously We've degraded these lands to a sickening degree over the past 120 years.

    We can't become complacent with our current production and soil health. The soils capacity to heal and improve is astounding as long as we humble ourselves enough to learn the ways of natures natural systems.

    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    3 odpovědi
    Extinction Rebellion protesters arrested after blockading Murdoch print sites | Extinction Rebellion | The Guardian
    https://amp.theguardian.com/.../sep/04/extinction-rebellion-block-roads-to-murdoch-paper-print-sites

    YMLADRIS
    YMLADRIS --- ---
    1 odpověď
    SHEFIK: jednou za par let mam ambice tu makroekonomii chtit zacit chapat, ale je to tak divny ze opravdu nevim, kde zacit. tak to vzdam. (VS ucebnici si precist umim.)
    nevim jaky mas level expertizy.. ma vyznam se te ptat, co to bude znamenat pro svet a klima, pokud aktualni obcanska valka nizke intenzity v USA po volbach zvysi intenzitu natolik, ze by USA prestalo splacet svuj dluh? jsou to vsechno jenom vymysleny cisla a zase se nic nestane?

    ilustrace = penize

    All of the World's Money and Markets in One Visualization - 2020 Edition
    https://www.visualcapitalist.com/all-of-the-worlds-money-and-markets-in-one-visualization-2020/

    YMLADRIS
    YMLADRIS --- ---
    Portuguese children sue 33 countries over climate change at European court | Law | The Guardian
    https://www.theguardian.com/...guese-children-sue-33-countries-over-climate-change-at-european-court
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    +1
    Portugalsko

    Fim da possibilidade de exploração de petróleo e gás em Portugal é grande vitória para o ambiente – ZERO
    https://zero.ong/...de-de-exploracao-de-petroleo-e-gas-em-portugal-e-grande-vitoria-para-o-ambiente/

    "Australis Oil & Gas," the company that's been holding a contract for gas prospection (with the possibility of fracking) in the municipalities of Pombal and Batalha for 5 years has stepped back from them - and won't renew them after they expire by the end of this month.

    This is amazing news and a great victory for nature and the environmental movement in this country. It means that by the end of September, there will be NO MORE fossil fuel contracts in Portugal. In 2015, there were 15 contracts for oil and gas, offshore and on land. Now it's 0. They've come down one by one due to the resistance of activists and local populations, which we and our global network were part of. So, congratulations to all of us and thank you for everyone who's had their part in making this possible!
    GOJATLA
    GOJATLA --- ---
    1 odpověď
    SHEFIK: Sypání peněz do ekonomiky způsobí inflaci, takže tisk peněz sám o sobě reálné HDP nezvýší, jde spíš o to oživit poptávku a tím spotřebu. Růst HDP je mnohem víc spojený se spotřebou energie. Degrowth se dá zařídit jednoduše - skrz agresivní carbon tax. OZE nemůžou fosil plně nahradit, důsledkem bude pokles HDP.
    https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0921800911001662

    SHEFIK
    SHEFIK --- ---
    2 odpovědi
    TADEAS: jo, ja souhlasim, tisk penez, kvantitativni uvolnovani apod. jsou regulerni nastroje a taky je spousta vlad chce pouzit na recovery coronaviru s investici do inteligentniho kapitalu - low carbon ekonomiky. takze souhlasim a nema asi smysl pokracovat s rozebiranim vsech dusledku tohodle nastroje.

    nicmene aspon par - je to jen jeden z nastroju a neni vseobjimajici (boostuje trasnformaci jen tech casti, kam sypes penize, takze kolem toho mas zbytecne moc administrativy a managementu, ktera ty penize zaroven neefektivne polyka, stejne jako danovy raje), navic levny penize proste zpusobujou bubliny, viz 2007, nebo co se deje ted na trzich. a kazda bublina jednou splaskne. danema to nevyresis, protoze ta bublina je v urcitym specifickym sektoru/oblasti, kdezto dane sou napric. navic zpusobujes tu inflaci a devalvaci meny apod, takze musis davat sakra pozor, kolik toho do obehu pustis, jinak doplatej chudy a nakonec cely obyvatelstvo

    daleko lepsi nastroj je carbon tax, protoze nebrani proudeni penez v ekonomice a obsahuje v sobe "transformujici" prvek pro poptavku, kterej ji smeruje "nenasilne" jinam, tzn. dle individualnich potreb, nebo dle jeji vyse se ta poptavka upravuje spravnym smerem. zaroven je spravedliva v tom, ze kdo utraci nejvic, tak taky zaplati nejvic, tzn. ma to efekt presne tam, kde potrebujes. a protoze firmy a korporace nejsou hloupy a sledujou zakony driv nez vejdou v platnost, nabidka zareaguje driv nez poptavka, aby nabidla alternativni levnejsi vyrobky bez carbonu

    spis mi nejak nejde do hlavy, jak:
    a) chces skloubit tak protichudny veci jako degrowth a uvolnovani penez. pokud sypes vic penez do ekonomiky, je jasny, ze poroste hdp, lide budou mit vic penez a vic utracet. tyhle veci jdou proti sobe

    b) jak chces degrowth realne provyst - narizenim? guidelines co si kdo smi kupovat? moralnim apelem?

    ...jinak za me klidne oboji, ale degrowth proste smysl nedava
    YMLADRIS
    YMLADRIS --- ---
    +2
    How SUVs conquered the world – at the expense of its climate | US news | The Guardian
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/sep/01/suv-conquered-america-climate-change-emissions

    podrobny rozbor ze 2 auta jsou sooo last century, ted jsou nutna 2 SUV



    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    +2
    TUHO:
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    1 odpověď+4
    Limity jsme my
    ‼️Asi stovka lidí právě proniká do uhelného dolu Vršany.
    Tento důl má být zavřen až v roce 2052. My přitom potřebujeme zavřít uhelné doly a elektrárny alespoň o dvacet let dřív.
    Proto se dnes lidé sami stávají limity fosilního průmyslu. Dokud nebude uzavřený poslední uhelný důl a elektrárna pak limity jsme my! ✊

    XCHAOS
    XCHAOS --- ---
    SHEFIK: já jsem narazil na vtipn6 paradox u kolegy/kamaráda, který staví cargokola a teď rozjížděj v centru Prahy rozvoz pro Rohlík.cz na kole. Ale problém je, že jeden z boxů musí u Rohlíků být chlazený suchým ledem! (podle insidera ho Rohlík spotřebuje 5t měsíčně) Uhlíková stopa jak sviň! Akorát jsem zjistil, že nevím, jak se suchý led vyrábí: jestli mražením čistého kouře, tak by unikl do atmosféry stejně, o zkapalňování vzduchu mám své pochybnosti...
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    2 odpovědi+1
    Forecasts by economists of the economic damage from climate change have been notably sanguine, compared to warnings by scientists about damage to the biosphere. This is because economists made their own predictions of damages, using three spurious methods: assuming that about 90% of GDP will be unaffected by climate change, because it happens indoors; using the relationship between temperature and GDP today as a proxy for the impact of global warming over time; and using surveys that diluted extreme warnings from scientists with optimistic expectations from economists. Nordhaus has misrepresented the scientific literature to justify the using a smooth function to describe the damage to GDP from climate change. Correcting for these errors makes it feasible that the economic damages from climate change are at least an order of magnitude worse than forecast by economists, and may be so great as to threaten the survival of human civilization.

    https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14747731.2020.1807856
    GOJATLA
    GOJATLA --- ---
    Tady je review clanku o decouplingu:
    A systematic review of the evidence on decoupling of GDP, resource use and GHG emissions, part II: synthesizing the insights - IOPscience
    https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab842a
    We conclude that large rapid absolute reductions of resource use and GHG emissions cannot be achieved through observed decoupling rates, hence decoupling needs to be complemented by sufficiency-oriented strategies and strict enforcement of absolute reduction targets

    Jinymi slovy: degrowth je nevyhnutelny.
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    Margaret Atwood | Writers Rebel | Extinction Rebellion UK
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SCGO-HTuMhM
    Kliknutím sem můžete změnit nastavení reklam