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    TUHOKlimaticka zmena / Thank you so much for ruining my day
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    California Is Fighting Over Two Dozen Major Wildfires — In The Middle of a Pandemic
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BIbyrclmfTo
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    Kalifornie




    SHEFIK
    SHEFIK --- ---
    GOJATLA: ja myslim ze jedinej, kdo se brani sou ignoranti, nebo neznali tematu. bohuzel bejvaj ve vedeni statu

    z pohledu firem: carbon tax je stejne tak prilezitost pro spoustu firem. olej by jednou dosel, pokud se pustej do vodiku, maj svy zisky nesmrtelny... uhelny baroni to maj ted trochu tezsi no :)

    z pohledu ekonomu je to spis jen otazka rychlosti, aby se nezadrely kola. Ymladris tu nedavno postovala studii, jaka taxa by to mela bejt a jak by se mela zvedat v pristich letech, aby to nezabrzdilo celej ten nas financni kolotoc

    kazdopadne firmy bez jasny legislativy budou naslapovat dost opatrne, aby nesly protismeru dotacim atd., takze by usa, eu a cina mely pohnout asap, aby se to konecne naplno roztocilo

    v tomhle je treba fajn eu, ze uz dorucilo hydrogen strategy:

    https://ec.europa.eu/...hUKEwj_jvnh_NLrAhWEoVwKHf7FAN8QFjABegQIAhAH&usg=AOvVaw2iwcGeqPYL2Pv0qpM26cdq
    GOJATLA
    GOJATLA --- ---
    SHEFIK: OK, ber mě s rezervou, mám vyhraněný názor, ale moc o ekonomice nevím :-)

    HDP asi není to co by nás mělo trápit nejvíc. Spíš to vidím tak, že máme poslední šanci zabránit oteplení o 4C. Buď zákazem spalování fosilu, kvótami, nebo pomocí razantní carbon tax / dividend. Tomu se brání průmysl, který si chce udržet snadné výdělky ale taky ekonomové, kteří v tom vidí hrozbu recese, asi oprávněně. Naše ekonomika je postavená na dluhu a když ji zaškrtíme, sesype se jako v 2008. To je důvod zešedivět, ale jinou možnost nemáme. Radši krizi a občanskou válku, než konec civilizace, ne?

    Decoupling třeba je možný, ale ne dostatečně rychle, už je na to pozdě. Jestli to přežijeme, tak budeme mít možnost ho zkusit.
    SHEFIK
    SHEFIK --- ---
    SHEFIK: oprava: takze pokud nedostanes za rok 2019 pridano, si idealni kandidat na degrowth, protoze si toho koupis o 1,44% min :) (cca 500kc)
    SHEFIK
    SHEFIK --- ---
    Neni to muj obor, rad se necham poucit. Takze kdyz kazdy rok vytisknem 10% penez, tak ziskame 10% rust HDP a nemusime pri tom zvysovat spotrebu? Takovy rust asi muze byt udrzitelny,ale je to rust jen na papire.

    ne, pokud das do obehu vic penez, tzn. das vic penez firmam a lidem, ta spotreba, vcetne hdp se samozrejme zvysi, pokud lide tech 10% nedaji do banky na uspory. proto rikam, ze kdyz nalijes dalsi penize do ekonomiky, tezko dosahnes degrowth. ty veci jdou proti sobe. je to jako bys rikal, ze dostanes vyplatu, ale budes mit min penez nez mas.

    ...

    ok, nevedel jsem, ze se rozlisuje jeste hdp ocistene o inflaci (real gdp), pro presnejsi mezirocni srovnani. dava to smysl. nicmene to na cele veci moc nemeni.

    pokud nalijes penize do ekonomiky, a lide se budou chovat konzistentne, jak jsem psal vyse, dojde k navyseni hdp

    ...

    on cely ten rust je vetsinou u vyspelych ekonomik jen rust na papire - protoze porad potrebujes udrzet lidi v praci.

    takze nekdo dostava mzdu - 30k
    inflace v eu je za 2019 1,44%
    rust hdp v eu je za 2019 1,6%
    nula od nuly temer pojde

    takze pokud nedostanes za rok 2019 pridano, si idealni kandidat na degrowth, protoze si toho koupis o 1,6% min :) (cca 500kc)

    proto je rust potreba, a proto seriozni firmy navysujou mezirocne platy.

    samozrejme u rozvojovych statu je to jine, ale to trva jen tak dlouho, dokud se nesrovnaji cenove/platove hladiny a zivotni standard.
    KEB
    KEB --- ---
    TADEAS: a pan TUHO se na pár dní odmlčí... :-D
    GOJATLA
    GOJATLA --- ---
    SHEFIK: Neni to muj obor, rad se necham poucit. Takze kdyz kazdy rok vytisknem 10% penez, tak ziskame 10% rust HDP a nemusime pri tom zvysovat spotrebu? Takovy rust asi muze byt udrzitelny,ale je to rust jen na papire.

    Nominal GDP refers to the GDP calculated at current market prices. Nominal GDP tends to rise with the money supply, but this is not always the case. Real GDP–also referred to as "constant-price," "inflation-corrected" or "constant-dollar GDP–is an inflation-adjusted measure of a country's GDP. Real GDP does not have as clear of a relationship with the money supply. Real GDP tends to be more influenced by the productivity of economic agents and businesses.
    SHEFIK
    SHEFIK --- ---
    YMLADRIS: ale ono se da shodnout i na principech ekonomie, jinak by nebylo mozne ji ucit. problem je v tom, ze ty principy se projevuji v case a maji hodne specifik / funguji za urcitych podminek + ti do toho vstupuje 8 miliard individui. ekonomie nejcasteji popisuje dokonaly trh, jenze ten neni, tzn. nabidka s poptavkou se v realite nikdy nepotka, je to neustaly boj a konvergence/divergence. je to jako snazit se zobecnit, jak se chovat k lidem - psychologie a sociologie existuje, ale stejne musis mit individualni pristup...

    zaroven, kazdy z tech nastroju je validni, ale ma svoje vyhody, nevyhody a podminky za kterych se ty vyhody a nevyhody realizuji, a ty je potreba konkretne posuzovat.

    na prikladech, dejme tomu, ze nejoptimalnejsi je scenar se 100 body (vymyslim si):
    a) 10 bodu - tisknout penize neomezene v 1 roce a udelat toho pro klima co nejvic - 10 bodu pro to, ze dalsi rok ekonomika zkrachuje a s ni i plany na klima
    b) 50 bodu tisknout penize rovnomerne v prubehu 10 let, pri dodrzeni inflace max 5% - ok, protoze ekonomika i lide se stihnou prizpusobit, vcetne rustu platu
    c) 70 bodu carbon tax - rovnomerne zatizeni dle spotreby (tedy dle utracenych penez), progresivni zvedani carbon taxy, dle kupni sily obyvatelstva, nastartovani poptavky po alternativach
    d) xx? bodu tisknout penize rovnomerne v prubehu 10 let, pri dodrzeni inflace max 5% + carbon tax - budou na to lidi mit? nevyvola to uz chudobu, nemoci, demonstrace, odvrat od klimatickych cilu atd? nikdo nevi

    uved jsem jen 2 nastroje a uz je tezky hodnotit. a prave proto, ze tech nastroju je tolik, je tezke dat dohromady ten holisticky obrazek a predpovedet budoucnost.

    dulezity je ale hlavne s necim zacit co nejdriv :) optimalizovat se to da vzdycky po ceste...

    ....

    a k centralni bance - ta ma za ukol tu menovou stabilitu, protoze kde neni menova stabilita, neni stabilni stat a pak tezko realizujes jakykoliv cile, vcetne tech klimatickych... proto musi zustat neutralni
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    Aktivistky ze Vzpoury koťátek a desítky odpůrců uhlí obsadily velkolom u Mostu - iDNES.cz
    https://www.idnes.cz/usti/zpravy/obsazeni-rypadlo-lom-vrsany.A200905_091518_usti-zpravy_bse

    Čtveřice aktivistek ze skupiny Vzpoura koťátek obsadila v sobotu ráno rypadlo v lomu ve Vršanech na Mostecku. Blokádu chtějí vydržet několik dní. Ženy obsadily skrývkový stroj, který byl v chodu, těžební společnost tak musela přerušit těžbu. Dopoledne pak do lomu pronikla více než stovka ekologických aktivistů. Policie postupně zajistila 105 z nich, aby zjistila jejich totožnost.
    YMLADRIS
    YMLADRIS --- ---
    SHEFIK: ok. v podstate mi jde asi o to, ze na fyzikalnich zakonech se da shodnout s nejakym robust consensem. ale na ekonomickych "zakonech" se neshodne nikdo. tadeas rika centralni banky, ty rikas carbon tax, varoufakis rika green new deal... nevidim zpusob, jak bych mohla zastavat nejaky kvalifikovany stanovisko (pokud nechci neco jako "on je moc levicovy a to z principu odmitam" atd), cili dal to neresim, cili je fajn ze nejaky stanoviska mate ... :)

    https://www.bloomberg.com/...020-09-04/central-bankers-could-be-but-aren-t-saviors-of-climate-change

    Central banks could favor green, or at least non-polluting industries via their asset purchasing programs, or make it more difficult for banks to lend to high emitting industries. These measures have been discussed in NGFS reports and elsewhere, but there’s little sign of them being implemented. Christine Lagarde, the new president of the European Central Bank, has hinted that she’s open to taking more active steps, but it’s far from clear that will actually happen. One staunch opponent to changing the status quo is Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann, who’s also a member of the ECB’s governing council. “Our mandate is price stability, and the implementation of our monetary policy must respect the principle of market neutrality,” Weidmann said in October. “And there could be conflicting goals as soon as monetary policy dictates that you need to step on the brake and reduce the purchase of bonds.”

    ... podobne mluvi i ten borec z CNB, ze nejdulezitejsi pro nej je aby hlavne nekopal za ekologii nebo proti ekologii, protoze to by byl konec jeho "neutrality"
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    Greenland ice sheet reached tipping point 20 years ago, new study finds
    https://phys.org/news/2020-09-greenland-ice-sheet-years

    While the ice sheet's decline has been well-documented over the past two decades, this latest study, led by Michalea King of the Byrd Polar and Climate Research Center, found that widespread glacier retreat helped push the ice sheet from a balanced to an imbalanced state. This work suggests that even if the oceans and atmosphere were to stop warming today, the ice sheet will continue to lose more ice than it will gain.

    In the decades leading up to the turn of the century, the ice sheet was in a state of relative equilibrium. The ice lost in a given year would be replenished by wintertime snowfall, and the sheet maintained a near-constant mass. But beginning around the year 2000, ice discharged through outlet glaciers—channels that flow outward to the sea—started to outpace annual snowfall that, in a balanced year, would replenish lost ice. The authors sifted through 40 years of satellite data, tracking outlet glacier velocity, thickness, and calving front position over time to determine the rate of ice loss. The shift they found represents a tipping point that is unlikely to be reversible in the near future. King told GlacierHub, "It's like a gear change… we've accelerated the drainage at the edge of the ice sheet, and now… we expect mass loss to be the new norm for the ice sheet in the near future."


    https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-020-0001-2

    We compare decadal variability in discharge and calving front position and find that increased glacier discharge was due almost entirely to the retreat of glacier fronts, rather than inland ice sheet processes, with a remarkably consistent speedup of 4–5% per km of retreat across the ice sheet. We show that widespread retreat between 2000 and 2005 resulted in a step-increase in discharge and a switch to a new dynamic state of sustained mass loss that would persist even under a decline in surface melt
    SHEFIK
    SHEFIK --- ---
    YMLADRIS: zajmava idea. imho to castecne kopiruje startup idea. s left-wing bych souhlasil. s "right-wing" technological singularity mi to uz prijde trochu sci-fi :)

    nicmene je fakt, ze pokrok je stale rychlejsi a spousta lidi se nestiha, nebo uz ani nechce prizpusobovat...
    SHEFIK
    SHEFIK --- ---
    YMLADRIS: ekonomie neni dogmaticka veda, a budoucnost nejde predpovidat. ja zacal chapat ten holistickej obrazek ekonomie az dlouho po vejsce, i kdyz bez toho studia bych asi nechapal doted, ale stejne vim prd...

    dle meho nazoru usa (ani jakakoliv jina zeme) neprestane splacet svuj dluh, to je totiz pro kazdou zemi konecna. zadna zeme si to nemuze dovolit, odrizla by se totiz od sveta a nikdo by ji uz nepujcil, nebo pujcil, ale s obrovskym urokem, kterej by nebyla schopna splatit. jakmile prestanes splacet svuj dluh, tak se tvoje mena (mimo jine i kvuli tvemu tisku vlastnich penez, protoze jinou moznost jak uplatit diry v rozpoctu uz nemas) driv nebo pozdejc dostane do hyperinflace. ostatni staty ihned devalvuji tvoji menu na menovych trzich. pak se stane, ze tvoji obyvatele napr. za 10000kc dostanou 1 euro. tzn. konec cestovani pro vsechny, vcetne predstavitelu statu. taky konec importu - i kdyby tvoje zeme byla sobestacna, dejme tomu na urovni nemecka, s vyrovnanym rozpoctem, tak potrebujes v case (10+ let) dovoz technologii, jinak zacnes driv nebo pozdejc zaostavat.

    muzes se podivat na priklad venezuely aktualne, kdo nevyved penize vcas, mohl byt multimilionar a ted je rad, ze ma co do huby.

    vetsinou se splaceni obrovskyho dluhu resi tak, ze tisknes prave ty penize a tim snizujes hodnotu meny, cimz vlastne platis mensi hodnotu, nez sis vypujcila. ale musis dat pozor na vysku inflace i rating zeme, protoze kdyz to rozehrajes moc vysoko, prijdou ty dopady, co jsem zminil. cely je to balancovani s mickem na spicce nosu. ani lide v centralnich bankach kolikrat nevi, jestli jednaji spravne a jestli to dopadne jak ocekavaji. nastesti tech financnich nastroju je vic, takze se s tim da hrat

    SHEFIK
    SHEFIK --- ---
    GOJATLA: prosimte, precti si ten vzorec hdp. neexistuje zadne realny nebo nerealny hdp, hdp je jen jedno. uz jen tenhle malej krok a konecne pochopis, ze rust vubec nesouvisi s materialnem, nebo ekologicnosti
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    This is South East Colorado near Springfield. Freshly broke virgin land around 1900. Zero fertilizer added and oats above the farmers head.

    This is the power of a healthy soil structure and diverse balanced biology. Obviously We've degraded these lands to a sickening degree over the past 120 years.

    We can't become complacent with our current production and soil health. The soils capacity to heal and improve is astounding as long as we humble ourselves enough to learn the ways of natures natural systems.

    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    Extinction Rebellion protesters arrested after blockading Murdoch print sites | Extinction Rebellion | The Guardian
    https://amp.theguardian.com/.../sep/04/extinction-rebellion-block-roads-to-murdoch-paper-print-sites

    YMLADRIS
    YMLADRIS --- ---
    SHEFIK: jednou za par let mam ambice tu makroekonomii chtit zacit chapat, ale je to tak divny ze opravdu nevim, kde zacit. tak to vzdam. (VS ucebnici si precist umim.)
    nevim jaky mas level expertizy.. ma vyznam se te ptat, co to bude znamenat pro svet a klima, pokud aktualni obcanska valka nizke intenzity v USA po volbach zvysi intenzitu natolik, ze by USA prestalo splacet svuj dluh? jsou to vsechno jenom vymysleny cisla a zase se nic nestane?

    ilustrace = penize

    All of the World's Money and Markets in One Visualization - 2020 Edition
    https://www.visualcapitalist.com/all-of-the-worlds-money-and-markets-in-one-visualization-2020/

    YMLADRIS
    YMLADRIS --- ---
    Portuguese children sue 33 countries over climate change at European court | Law | The Guardian
    https://www.theguardian.com/...guese-children-sue-33-countries-over-climate-change-at-european-court
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    Portugalsko

    Fim da possibilidade de exploração de petróleo e gás em Portugal é grande vitória para o ambiente – ZERO
    https://zero.ong/...de-de-exploracao-de-petroleo-e-gas-em-portugal-e-grande-vitoria-para-o-ambiente/

    "Australis Oil & Gas," the company that's been holding a contract for gas prospection (with the possibility of fracking) in the municipalities of Pombal and Batalha for 5 years has stepped back from them - and won't renew them after they expire by the end of this month.

    This is amazing news and a great victory for nature and the environmental movement in this country. It means that by the end of September, there will be NO MORE fossil fuel contracts in Portugal. In 2015, there were 15 contracts for oil and gas, offshore and on land. Now it's 0. They've come down one by one due to the resistance of activists and local populations, which we and our global network were part of. So, congratulations to all of us and thank you for everyone who's had their part in making this possible!
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