YMLADRIS, TADEAS, TADEAS: za dva dny okolo toho vzniknul vtipnej info-vír .) ... jednak to prebiraj media v tom doomistickym tonu, coz je jedna vec, ktera se da kritizovat. ten clanek ale podle me spis jen ukazuje, co rika ten jejich zjednodusenej model, pricemz smyslem toho zjednodusenyho modelu je jen se prizpusobovat casem tem komplexnejsim modelum. smysl dobre udelanyho jednoduchyho modelu jsem chapal ze je v tom, aby si i instituce, ktery se nezamerujou vyhradne na klima mohly delat nejaky hruby modely pro svoje vyuziti. nemyslim, ze to spousta tech kritiku chape.



Richard Betts
https://twitter.com/richardabetts/status/1326948034979172356

The water vapour and surface albedo feedbacks in that particular model are much stronger than in any of the CMIP models used in IPCC, which are more closely informed by observations & physical understanding



Is the climate crisis pushing the world towards a ‘point of no return’? | The Independent
https://www.independent.co.uk/...change/climate-change-crisis-tipping-point-world-warm-b1721822.html

“The results presented in the paper are interesting but are really at odds with the science community’s understanding of how the climate is changing,” says Prof James Renwick, head of the school of geography, environment and earth sciences at the Victoria University of Wellington.

“The latest round of climate model simulations show that if greenhouse gas emissions were to stop immediately, there is likely to be very little further increase in temperatures and no sign of warming resuming in future.”

The models used by the IPCC are more advanced and better able to simulate the behaviour of the Earth’s feedback loops, says Prof Mark Maslin, a climate scientist at University College London.

“These results do need to be confirmed by more complex climate models used in the IPCC reports, because these results come from one model which has not undergone the rigorous cross checking and testing that is usual for climate models,” he says.

In their paper, the authors note the simplicity of their model by saying that they “encourage other model builders to explore our discovery in their [bigger] models, and report on their findings”.

It is important to understand that it is not too late to take actions to address the climate crisis, says Prof Betts: “I really wouldn’t want people to take [the research paper] seriously and start getting worried that the climate catastrophe is now unavoidable.”

Claims that the world is “doomed” to suffer extremely high levels of warming can be detrimental to global efforts to tackle the climate crisis, explains Leo Barasi, author of the Climate Majority.

“Claims the world is irreversibly doomed to runaway warming, and no amount of emission cuts can help us, can always find an audience, just like claims that climate change is nothing to worry about,” he told The Independent.

YMLADRIS:

Ending greenhouse gas emissions may not stop global warming: study
https://phys.org/news/2020-11-greenhouse-gas-emissions-global.amp


In an imaginary world where carbon pollution stops with a flip of the switch, the planet warms over the next 50 years to about 2.3 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels—roughly half-a-degree above the target set in the 2015 Paris Agreement—and cools slightly after that.

Earth's surface today is 1.2C hotter than it was in the mid-19th century, when temperatures began to rise.

But starting in 2150, the model has the planet beginning to gradually warm again, with average temperatures climbing another degree over the following 350 years, and sea levels going up by at least three metres.

Under the second scenario, Earth heats up to levels that would tear at the fabric of civilisation far more quickly, but ends up at roughly the same point by 2500.

...

Reactions from half-a-dozen leading climate scientists to the study—which the authors acknowledge is schematic—varied sharply, with some saying the findings merit follow-up research, and others rejecting it out of hand.

"The model used here is ... not shown to be a credible representation of the real climate system," said Richard Betts, head of climate impacts research at the University of Exeter.

"In fact, it is directly contradicted by more established and extensively evaluated climate models."

Mark Maslin, a professor of climatology at University College London, also pointed to shortcomings in the model, known as ESCIMO, describing the study as a "thought experiment."

"What the study does draw attention to is that reducing global carbon emissions to zero by 2050"—a goal championed by the UN and embraced by a growing number of countries—"is just the start of our actions to deal with climate change."

k tematu

Low-Carbon Cement Can Help Combat Climate Change - Scientific American
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/low-carbon-cement-can-help-combat-climate-change/

JINDRICH: Mama mi jednou rikala o prispevku na jedne konferenci (venuje se zateplovani vedecky), ktery propocitaval energeticke ztraty tradicnich roubenek v Alpach, takto obalenych kolem dokola drevem. Vyslo jim to v nizkoenergetickem standardu:) Jeden z triku byl, ze tradicne spalovali drevo nejdriv od jizni, potom od vychodni, zapadni a nakonec az severni strany, ktera tak nejdele zustavala zaizolovana. Okna byla mala, spary se zacpaly mechem a zamazaly jilem anebo vapnem, stropy nizke, mistnosti male, dobytek spal pod jednou strechou s lidma. A slo to i bez elektriny, plastu, tepelnych cerpadel, atp.

PALEONTOLOG: LINKOS:
Roubenky se ale dříve na zimu běžně izolovaly smrkovejma haluzema. (alepspoň podle modelů a popisků ve vlastivědném muzeu ve vysokém nad jizerou). To že to aktuální uživatelé těch chalup nedělaj je jiná věc...

Biden planuje pozvat world leaders a resit klima. Hodne zalezi na americkem senatu (leden)

Biden has, thus far, spoken to eight world leaders on the phone – and he raised the issue of climate change on every single one. He has also said he will convene world leaders for a special meeting to discuss climate change within 100 days of taking office. His transition team now includes people such as Sue Biniaz, a key architect of the Paris Agreement. The contrast with the Trump years couldn’t be more stark.

CarbonBrief

LINKOS: vidíš a v porovnání s betonem je izolant výbornej, 1,2 vs 0,2.
nezlob se, ale netvrdím, že není lepší izolace než dřevo, nemusíš argumentovat nejnižším zateplením na trhu. to je nonsense.
dál si troufnu tvrdit, že dřčevo není izolační ale stavební materiál. ukaž mi konvenční stavební materiál s izolačními vlastnostmi dřeva ? možná najdeš beton z perlitu, vše ostatní je horší.
spáry a mezery souvisí se stavebně technickým řešením, ne s vlastnostmi dřeva.
mícháš dost věcí dohromady.

PALEONTOLOG: nesouhlas si jak chceš, ale když pomineš svoje pocity a koukneš se na fakta tak dřevo není nijak slavné. Má lambdu 0,18 zatímco izolace má 0,03-0,04. Je tedy 4,5-6x horší než izolace. Aby ses dostal na deset cm polystyrenu(vezmem nějaký obyčejný 0,035), musíš použít... 50cm dřeva. Skus se vyrovnat 20-30cm izolace...
Navic zcela pomíjíš u té roubenky ty mezery, ale to je už v podstatě jen detail, i když netesnosti pláště jsou z pohledu ztrát tepla taky zásadní problém...

Takze ne, nestačí to, proto dneska některé firmy dělají zdvojené skladby s izolaci uvnitř, případně je izolace vnitřní, aby z venku to vypadalo jako roubenka/srub...