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    TUHOKlimaticka zmena / If the fracturing of our once stable climate doesn’t terrify you, then you don’t fully understand it


    "Given the sheer enormity of climate change, it’s okay to be depressed, to grieve. But please, don’t stay there too long. Join me in pure, unadulterated, righteous anger."


    "I don’t want your hope. I don’t want you to be hopeful. I want you to panic. I want you to feel the fear I feel every day. And then I want you to act. Once you start to act, the hope is everywhere."

    "Our best scientists tell us insistently that a calamity is unfolding, that the life-support systems of the Earth are being damaged in ways that threaten our survival. Yet in the face of these facts we carry on as usual."

    “We’ve got to stop burning fossil fuels. So many aspects of life depend on fossil fuels, except for music and love and education and happiness. These things, which hardly use fossil fuels, are what we must focus on.”

    A nejde o to, že na to nemáme dostatečné technologie, ty by na řešení použít šly, ale chybí nám vůle a představivost je využít. Zůstáváme při zemi, přemýšlíme až moc rezervovaně. Technologický pokrok to sám o sobě nevyřeší. Problém jsme my, ne technologické nástroje.

    Rostouci hladiny oceanu, zmena atmosferickeho proudeni, zmeny v distribuci srazek a sucha. Zmeny karbonoveho, fosforoveho a dusikoveho cyklu, okyselovani oceanu. Jake jsou bezpecnostni rizika a jake potencialni klady dramatickych zmen fungovani zemskeho systemu?
    Ale take jak funguji masove dezinformacni kampane ropneho prumyslu a boj o verejne mineni na prahu noveho klimatickeho rezimu post-holocenu.
    rozbalit záhlaví
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    Climatologist Michael E Mann: 'Good people fall victim to doomism. I do too sometimes' | Climate change | The Guardian
    https://www.theguardian.com/.../feb/27/climatologist-michael-e-mann-doomism-climate-crisis-interview

    (az na curackej kopanec do wikileaks dobrej rozhovor)


    The youth climate movement has galvanised attention and re-centred the debate on intergenerational ethics. We are seeing a tipping point in public consciousness. That bodes well. There is still a viable way forward to avoid climate catastrophe.

    You can see from the talking points of inactivists that they are really in retreat. Republican pollsters like Frank Luntz have advised clients in the fossil fuel industry and the politicians who carry water for them that you can’t get away with denying climate change any more. It doesn’t pass the sniff test with the public. Instead they are looking at other things they can do.

    ...

    Any time you are told a problem is your fault because you are not behaving responsibly, there is a good chance that you are being deflected from systemic solutions and policies. Blaming the individual is a tried and trusted playbook that we have seen in the past with other industries. In the 1970s, Coca Cola and the beverage industry did this very effectively to convince us we don’t need regulations on waste disposal. Because of that we now have a global plastic crisis. The same tactics are evident in the gun lobby’s motto, “guns don’t kill people, people kill people”, which is classic deflection. For a UK example look at BP, which gave us the world’s first individual carbon footprint calculator. Why did they do that? Because BP wanted us looking at our carbon footprint not theirs.

    ...

    Doom-mongering has overtaken denial as a threat and as a tactic. Inactivists know that if people believe there is nothing you can do, they are led down a path of disengagement. They unwittingly do the bidding of fossil fuel interests by giving up.

    What is so pernicious about this is that it seeks to weaponise environmental progressives who would otherwise be on the frontline demanding change. These are folk of good intentions and good will, but they become disillusioned or depressed and they fall into despair. But “too late” narratives are invariably based on a misunderstanding of science. Many of the prominent doomist narratives – [Jonathan] Franzen, David Wallace-Wells, the Deep Adaptation movement – can be traced back to a false notion that an Arctic methane bomb will cause runaway warming and extinguish all life on earth within 10 years. This is completely wrong. There is no science to support that.

    ...

    ad Bill Gates YMLADRIS

    His view is overly technocratic and premised on an underestimate of the role that renewable energy can play in decarbonising our civilisation. If you understate that potential, you are forced to make other risky choices, such as geoengineering and carbon capture and sequestration. Investment in those unproven options would crowd out investment in better solutions.

    Gates writes that he doesn’t know the political solution to climate change. But the politics are the problem buddy. If you don’t have a prescription of how to solve that, then you don’t have a solution and perhaps your solution might be taking us down the wrong path.


    TADEAS, TADEAS, TADEAS
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    TADEAS:

    Paul Maidowski
    https://twitter.com/_ppmv/status/1349679685957988353?s=19

    Mann is consistently ignoring social science & social movement literature, using his (by climate standards large) platform to impose simplistic & US-centric views on activists worldwide, drowning out the urgently necessary warning voices. Not remotely helpful.

    ...

    Why politically naïve: the opportunity costs of fixating on shallow surface level questions (pricing) are high. Obviously we need changes in prices, no one’s disputing that, but via entirely different levers & the type of social movement building that Mann’s actively undermining

    ...

    we all like *the idea* of carbon pricing—on paper a smooth silver bullet. Take an insanely messy complex real world problem & smoothly internalize externalities. The problem is, the economics are false @ProfSteveKeen ( https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/14747731.2020.1807856?journalCode=rglo20 ) & of course it will never work at scale

    ...

    Great overview, shared elsewhere here already, why we need to do the hard work of politics rather than continue to create plausible deniability with carbon pricing type debates that will always fall short, because pricing’s linear, never a systemic change:

    The Trouble with Carbon Pricing | Boston Review
    http://bostonreview.net/...e-nature-politics/matto-mildenberger-leah-c-stokes-trouble-carbon-pricing
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    The New Climate War by Michael E. Mann | PublicAffairs
    https://www.publicaffairsbooks.com/titles/michael-e-mann/the-new-climate-war/9781549157004/

    A renowned climate scientist shows how fossil fuel companies have waged a thirty-year campaign to deflect blame and responsibility and delay action on climate change, and offers a battle plan for how we can save the planet.

    ...

    In The New Climate War, Mann argues that all is not lost. He draws the battle lines between the people and the polluters-fossil fuel companies, right-wing plutocrats, and petrostates. And he outlines a plan for forcing our governments and corporations to wake up and make real change, including:

    - a common-sense, attainable approach to carbon pricing- and a revision of the well-intentioned but flawed currently proposed version of the Green New Deal;
    - allowing renewable energy to compete fairly against fossil fuels
    - debunking the false narratives and arguments that have worked their way into the climate debate and driven a wedge between even those who support climate change solutions
    - combatting climate doomism and despair-mongering

    With immensely powerful vested interests aligned in defense of the fossil fuel status quo, the societal tipping point won’t happen without the active participation of citizens everywhere aiding in the collective push forward. This book will reach, inform, and enable citizens everywhere to join this battle for our planet.
    PER2
    PER2 --- ---
    pro tadease ;)
    Why this retired farmer plants trees | Regenerative Agriculture in Spain
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uhhRoKSJszw
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    THE_DARKNESS: nevim, kazdopadne rozhodovaci procesy techle firem jsou dulezity. rockstromm ji tam rika, ze prave je potreba, aby to bylo reseny na urovni policies, aby se cely to (trzni) pole nekam mohlo posouvat.
    DZODZO
    DZODZO --- ---
    PETER_PAN: no veru ked som dnes kupoval na vianoce 4 klobasy a kusok udeneho a predo mnou pani nakupila do velkej tasky asi 10 druhov masovych vyrobkov v celkovej cene 2500 korun tak som rozmyslal, ze ci nakupuje pre nejaky detsky tabor :) to budu ti isti ludia co potom bedakaju, ze nemaju peniaze... no nemaju, lebo za tyzden prezeru tolko co my za mesiac :D
    JIMIQ
    JIMIQ --- ---
    S UK, Nemeckem a ted Spanelskem to vypada ze 40%+ se da dosahnout bez baterii. Takze nase OZE maji kam levne rust
    SHEFIK
    SHEFIK --- ---
    http://ieefa.org/...ewable-energy-has-provided-43-6-of-spains-electricity-year-to-date-grid-operator

    Spain produced 43.6% of its electricity with renewables energy technologies in the year to December 11

    By the December cut-off date, Spanish plants generated 109,269 GWh of renewable power, up by 11.6% year-on-year, owing mostly to favourable weather conditions and an increase in the total installed renewable energy capacity.

    This year, the country added 2,706 MW of new wind and solar capacity and disconnected 3,486 MW of polluting power plants, mainly coal-burning units. Today, Spain’s total installed generation capacity stands at 109,674 MW, with renewables accounting for 53% of the total.

    The overall electricity production levels decreased by 4% to 250,387 GWh, while emissions stemming from power generation fell by 27.3% compared to 2019. With a 21.7% share in the total generation, wind farms were the country’s biggest producers of renewable power this year and the second biggest after nuclear energy. Solar photovoltaic (PV) plants managed to raise their output by 65.9% on the year and reach a share of 6.1%.
    THE_DARKNESS
    THE_DARKNESS --- ---
    TADEAS: není to ze strany HM jen greenwashing?
    PETER_PAN
    PETER_PAN --- ---
    https://magazin.aktualne.cz/...em-salatu-komuniste-chteli-vanoce/r~ec44772a3ed911ebb1110cc47ab5f122/

    ... ...
    V tom, jestli se tohoto typu stravy bude v budoucnu více lidí vzdávat, podle mě může sehrát rozhodující roli otázka klimatické krize. Ta je naléhavá, takže není vyloučené, že ke změnám stravování dojde poměrně rychle a že půjde o změny vynucené ekonomickými nástroji. Kdybych ale byl politik, tak k tomuto problému přistupuji velmi opatrně.

    Proč?

    Pokud bychom z masa znovu udělali statusový symbol, exkluzivní surovinu, kterou si běžná rodina bude moci dovolit jednou týdně, mohlo by to ve společnosti vyvolat velké napětí. Kdyby se například prosadilo jen maso od menších farmářů, znamenalo by to výrazné zdražení. Někteří lidé by na maso najednou neměli, ale protože si na něj už zvykli, pořád by ho chtěli, a takové sociální nerovnosti by mohly být skutečně nebezpečné. Jako mnohem lepší řešení proto vnímám snahu o produkci masa ekologičtějšími způsoby, snahu vyvinout cenově dostupné maso ze zkumavky a podobně.

    Metody zavedené při budování konzumní společnosti sice zajistily dostatek masa a dalších potravin pro široké vrstvy, ale bylo to na úkor životního prostředí. V současnosti už celý ten proces nemůžeme vrátit zpátky. Není možné si představit, že běžní lidé budou tak jako v minulosti jíst jen brambory a zelí, zatímco ti, kteří na tom budou líp, si budou dopřávat maso. To by společnost nepřijala. Proto musíme najít způsob, jak zajistit stejné množství potravin, které spotřebováváme dnes, aniž bychom při tom poškozovali planetu tak, jak jsme to dělali doteď. To bude jeden z nejdůležitějších a zároveň nejsložitějších úkolů nastupující generace.
    JIMIQ
    JIMIQ --- ---
    Norway becomes the first country to ban deforestation | Times of India Travel
    https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/...becomes-the-first-country-to-ban-deforestation/as73696460.cms
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    TADEAS:


    2016 Modeling sustainability: population, inequality, consumption, and bidirectional coupling of the Earth and Human Systems
    https://academic.oup.com/nsr/article/3/4/470/2669331

    2020 Economics and climate emergency
    https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14747731.2020.1841527
    RADIQAL
    RADIQAL --- ---
    TADEAS: To je dovcela přísný...
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    2020 The failure of Integrated Assessment Models as a response to ‘climate emergency’ and ecological breakdown: the Emperor has no clothes
    https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14747731.2020.1853958

    In this brief commentary we provide some parallel points to complement Steve Keen’s paper in the recent Globalization’s special forum on ‘Economics and Climate Emergency’. Keen’s critique of climate and economy Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) is wide-ranging, but there is still scope to bring to the fore the general issues that help to make sense of the critique. Accordingly, we set out six key inadequacies of IAMs and argue towards the need for a different approach that is more realistic regarding the limits to growth.


    ...


    New paper by @salviasefi about lack of feedbacks between Earth & Human Systems in Integrated Assessment Models.

    It is connected to the work of @ProfSteveKeen & papers by my colleagues and myself, e.g., https://t.co/DU2asvLf3T.

    This new paper summarizes some of the key inadequacies of Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs):

    1. The rational expectations assumption.

    2. Lack of real complexity.

    3. ‘Integrated’ does not mean what you think it means.

    4. The use of a ‘representative agent’ in the economic model.

    5. The economic agent as consumer: discounts that shouldn’t count.

    6. The economic agent as producer: the damage done by damage functions.

    Explicit modeling of the Human System variables and dynamical mechanisms is crucial for producing realistic projections of the climate and environmental systems. These projections inform major regional and international policies.

    Without a realistic representation of bidirectional feedbacks in Integrated Assessment Models, we might miss important signals that determine the fate of our planet and our species.

    We need a new paradigm of models for @IPCC_CH and National Climate Assessment reports.
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    Global Warming Acceleration
    https://mailchi.mp/caa/global-warming-acceleration?e=3ac2bfcbd5

    https://twitter.com/MarkCranfield_/status/1340483865794756611?s=19

    Hot off the press by James Hansen.

    Despite knowing that forcing from aerosols was very large, the IPCC used much smaller forcings in their models.

    According to Hansen the "large and persistent" acceleration since 2015 has been caused by reduced air pollution aerosols. https://t.co/9ONF5B6WWr

    Incredibly, Hansen suggests that, without the massive acceleration caused by declining air pollution aerosols, the rate of warming would have SLOWED.

    https://t.co/GGT2o1VubL https://t.co/wF6Sb05O3h

    It's hard to comprehend the awesome significance of Hansen describing this absolutely catastrophic acceleration in global warming as merely a down payment on the aerosol Faustian Bargain.

    And given that air pollution takes less than a week to fall from the sky it isn't only our grandchildren that the devil is coming for.

    I'm an analyst and these are dry and unpleasant issues, but we have to get our heads around them because these two subjects (aerosols and climate sensitivity) tell us everything about the fraud at the heart of the IPCC and the future of the earth and the human race.
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    Your daily reminder of Limits to Growth:

    “China’s coastal waters have been fished to the point of destruction. Studies suggest only 15 per cent of the region’s pre-1980s fish population survives. And yet, some 300,000 coastal fishing vessels continue to chase them down.”

    ...

    Beijing’s monster fishing fleet has stripped its own waters bare and now they’re headed for Australia. https://t.co/rMoR1T3qau via @newscomauHQ

    ...

    Construction begins on world’s first 100,000-tonne intelligent fish farming vessel in Qingdao - Global Times
    https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1210431.shtml
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    Governing by targets: reductio ad unum and evolution of the two-degree climate target
    https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10784-016-9336-7

    Targets are widely employed in environmental governance. In this paper, we investigate the construction of the 2 °C climate target, one of the best known targets in global environmental governance. Our paper examines this target through a historical reconstruction that identifies four different phases: framing, consolidation and diffusion, adoption, and disembeddedness. Our analysis shows that, initially, the target was science-driven and predominantly EU-based; it then became progressively accepted at the international level, despite a lack of broader debate among governments on the policy implications and required measures for implementation. Once the 2 °C target was endorsed at the level of the United Nations, the nature of the target changed from being policy-prescriptive to being largely symbolic. In this phase, the target became a disembedded object in global governance not linked to a shared agenda nor to coordinated and mutually binding mitigation efforts. The 2015 Paris Agreement marks the last stage in this development and may have further solidified the target as a disembedded object. In the final part of the paper, we suggest ways to overcome the current situation and to develop the 2 °C target into a fully fledged global environmental governance target
    SHEFIK
    SHEFIK --- ---
    Carbon Pricing Explained [Carbon Tax vs. Cap & Trade]
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J7fj4IYqZ5I
    JIMIQ
    JIMIQ --- ---
    PAD: to mi prijde jako nesmysl, 2/3 fosilnich zdroju je zvenku (plyn, ropa), navic jde o docasne obdobi 20 let
    GOJATLA
    GOJATLA --- ---
    PAD: Možných rizik je spousta, ale za mě je nejhorší riziko, že carbon tax nezavedeme, nebo že bude jen na oko. Kdyby jediná forma, která by šla prosadit, vyplácela celý výnos Křetínskému a Tykačovi, tak bych byl pro.
    PAD
    PAD --- ---
    JIMIQ: Ono je jedno nebezpeci u te uhlikove dane - kdyz bude vynos dostatecne velky, stat se na ni stane zavisly, takze pak nebude mit uplne motivaci vlastne ten uhlik eliminovat. Napr. v Irsku pred r. 2008 byl stat cim dal vice zavisly z vynosu ruznych dani a poplatku z nemovitosti, coz jej vlastne cinilo zavislym na rostouci nemovitostni bubline. Pritom jeste snizoval dane z prijmu. Pak prisel krach. Podobne vlastne staty neskoncuji treba s levnym pivem (chlastem obecne), protoze je to vyznamny vynos. I kdyz nasledky jsou mnohem horsi (ve zdravotnictvi, ale obecne spolecnosti).
    JIMIQ
    JIMIQ --- ---
    Nevim kolik by se tak na te uhlikove dani mohlo vybrat ale v prvni rade by mohli jit penize do zdravotnictvi, kde se ty nasledky znecisteni projevuji nejdriv
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