Grand Transitions: How the Modern World Was Made. – Vaclav Smil
http://vaclavsmil.com/2021/03/05/grand-transitions-how-the-modern-world-was-made/
What makes the modern world work? The answer to this deceptively simple question lies in four “grand transitions” of civilization – in populations, agriculture, energy, and economics – which have transformed the way we live. Societies that have undergone all four transitions emerge into an era of radically different population dynamics, food surpluses (and waste), abundant energy use, and expanding economic opportunities. Simultaneously, in other parts of the world, hundreds of millions remain largely untouched by these developments. Through erudite storytelling, Vaclav Smil investigates the fascinating and complex interactions of these transitions. He argues that the moral imperative to share modernity’s benefits has become more acute with increasing economic inequality, but addressing this imbalance would make it exceedingly difficult to implement the changes necessary for the long-term preservation of the environment. Thus, managing the fifth transition – environmental changes from natural-resource depletion, biodiversity loss, and global warming – will determine the success or eventual failure of the grand transitions that have made the world we live in today.
Want Not, Waste Not
https://www.noemamag.com/want-not-waste-not/
There is no one threshold. There are many different thresholds. A lot of people said that China over the last few years was overdoing the exploitation of its natural resources. I said, “No, it may be constantly collapsing in some places, but it’s also constantly improving elsewhere.”
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Let’s look at things as they are: There is no “economy” — there is only energy conversion. Your car, your heated houses, your flights to Europe — all must take a big hit. Unless we invent some miraculous type of energy technology, seriously stemming climate change means we would have to deliberately decrease our standards of living. It’s impossible for everyone on the planet to live like people in Santa Clara County and still have a perfect environment. Just impossible.
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The idea that limiting temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius by 2030 will make a big enough difference is wishful thinking. There are many papers scientifically showing that much more warming is already in the pipeline. We need to admit that the train has left the station. It’s very likely the warming ahead will exceed 2 degrees Celsius at least. So, yes, the realism you speak of must involve coping with rising seas, intense storms, perpetual wildfires and the rest.
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Our greatest hope is to finally realize how wasteful we are. We simply need to do what I call “rational management.” We waste up to 40% of all food we grow. And agriculture accounts for about 10% of greenhouse gas emissions in the U.S. We release all that into the biosphere to grow food, and then we waste 30, 35, 40% of it every year, year after year.
Now, it’s impossible to run an economy with zero waste. But we could bring down waste to less than 15%. Certainly less than 30. The same is true about energy for transport. Thirty years ago, the best-selling vehicle was not the Ford F-150, but small and medium-sized cars. We waste energy, we waste food, we waste materials — in so many ways.