PER2: ale ono to neochladilo Zemi, jenom to zpusobilo nizsi urodu v preindustrialni ere, a to navic jenom na jeden rok. Ale klidne se modli k bohum sopek .. jestli ti to pripada racionalni.

SHEFIK: nemusime ani tak daleko ;)
Year Without a Summer - Wikipedia
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Year_Without_a_Summer

coz me vede k tomu ze ochladit zemi nebude zas tak velky problem, naopak to bude asi krapet vetsi orisek ;)

Asset value will shape the existential politics of climate change - by Carlos Alvarenga - Thematiks
https://www.thematiks.com/p/asset-value-will-shape-the-existential

the authors propose a new framework based on the idea that in every developed nation one finds holders of climate-forcing assets (CFAs) (e.g., example, oil fields, beef farms) and holders of climate-vulnerable assets (CVAs) (e.g., coastal property, fisheries). From the 1980s to mid-1990s, the authors note, CFA holders were content to cast doubt on the certainty of climate science to prevent CVA holders from realizing the threat that they faced and thus mobilizing against CFA-friendly policies. However, starting in the late 1990s, CFA holders became more aware of the economic threats to their assets and began to mobilize, as specific sectors and communities (e.g., coal miners, flood-prone areas) began to feel the real costs imposed by a shifting climate.

Since that time, many nations and companies have begun to act unilaterally, often in line with the degree of the perceived economic vulnerability of held assets. This shift comes about from a greater awareness of the potential financial impact of climate change as well as the growing number of entities that it affects. In other words, whereas CFA holders were previously generally restricted to fossil fuel companies, the authors note that “it is now clear that vast swaths of the economy will have to decarbonize relatively soon.” Indeed, sectors such as shipping, aviation, and industrial and chemical production can now be considered CFAs. Decarbonization and climate change, note the authors, “are not only deepening the concentration of interests among CFA and CVA holders, they are also ‘broadening’ the dispersion of those interests.”

The broadening of the present and future CVA ecosystem is leading to new legal and policy initiatives in response to the increasing economic threat that climate change poses. In the legal realm, for example, “there are an increasing number of lawsuits in which future generations and other affected groups are compelling states to increase their climate policies.”

...

Climate change and decarbonization policies raise the prospect of extinction for CVAs and CFAs, respectively. It contrasts with other kinds of distributional politics, which involve adjustments on the margins (for example, falling wages) or through which a substitutable good is lost (for example, high trade tariffs making avocados prohibitively expensive, leading to consumers buying something else). Existential politics often means that there is a contest over whose way of life gets to survive. Should we have Miami Beach and the Marshall Islands, or should we have coal miners, ExxonMobil, and Chevron? This extreme form of distributional politics exists in other areas of international political economy (for example, a trade agreement or technological change can wipe out an uncompetitive industry), but we suggest that the scale of climate change will make existential politics the increasingly dominant lens through which to understand climate politics.

[2106.02512] Interdependence of Growth, Structure, Size and Resource Consumption During an Economic Growth Cycle
https://arxiv.org/abs/2106.02512

All economies require physical resource consumption to grow and maintain their structure. The modern economy is additionally characterized by private debt. The Human and Resources with MONEY (HARMONEY) economic growth model links these features using a stock and flow consistent framework in physical and monetary units. Via an updated version, we explore the interdependence of growth and three major structural metrics of an economy. First, we show that relative decoupling of gross domestic product (GDP) from resource consumption is an expected pattern that occurs because of physical limits to growth, not a response to avoid physical limits. While an increase in resource efficiency of operating capital does increase the level of relative decoupling, so does a change in pricing from one based on full costs to one based only on marginal costs that neglects depreciation and interest payments leading to higher debt ratios. Second, if assuming full labor bargaining power for wages, when a previously-growing economy reaches peak resource extraction and GDP, wages remain high but profits and debt decline to zero. By removing bargaining power, profits can remain positive at the expense of declining wages. Third, the distribution of intermediate transactions within the input-output table of the model follows the same temporal pattern as in the post-World War II U.S. economy. These results indicate that the HARMONEY framework enables realistic investigation of interdependent structural change and trade-offs between economic distribution, size, and resources consumption

Kudy vede cesta k Česku bez kouře, budou řešit odborníci. Sledujte živě - iDNES.cz
https://www.idnes.cz/ekonomika/domaci/cesko-bez-koure-narodni-den-cez-cvut-skoda-philip-morris.A210906_162648_ekonomika_ven#utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=ekonomikah&utm_content=main

Odsiřování elektráren, postupné odstavování uhelných zdrojů i nástup elektromobilů přispívají k tomu, že se kouř nad českém pomalu rozplývá. Jak daleko je ale ještě k bezemisní energetice a je v Česku vůbec reálná. Je například evropský Green Deal správnou cestou? I o tom budou debatovat experti na konferenci Národní den bez kouře, kterou můžete sledovat v úterý od 9:15 na iDNES.cz.

Roy Scranton: Some New Future Will Emerge – Guernica
https://www.guernicamag.com/roy-scranton-some-new-future-will-emerge/

In the essay “Anthropocene City,” I write how people in Houston are working to protect the city from the next big storm, but that they’re not doing it super successfully. I’m proud of this essay, because it looks at climate change a little differently than many other pieces on the subject, which tend to ask one of two questions: Why do we suffer from a paralysis to do anything about climate change? What is the way around that paralysis? A problem that arises from looking at [climate change] this way is that we’re born into a world with a distinct conceptual armature and structure of reality. We can’t just, like, tear up all the roads and do something different. You can only build a new future using the rocks of the past. Some new future will emerge, certainly, but we don’t have a lot of control over how that happens. What we can do is facilitate its emergence in a more peaceful and thoughtful way.

GOJATLA: ale chápeš, vzpoury nefungují tak, že včera byla planeta neobyvatelná, tak dnes se vzbouříme a zítra už zase bude obyvatelná. Kdyby to bylo takhle jednoduché, tak je celé globální oteplování dávno vyřešené....

V praxi to daleko spíš bude vypadat, že ty se pokusíš zablokovat provoz na nějaké dopravní zácpou ucpané radiále v Praze (třeba já bych rád vyvěsil tady v Břevnově na Patočkově aspoň plachtu "auta smrdí" nebo dokonce "auta jsou smradlavý plechový imigranti na kolečkách", jsou tu dva nadchody, kde by se to vyjímalo) třeba pomocí nějaké barikády z převrácených aut nebo pneumatik a tím uděláš klimatickou vzpouru a zachráníš svět.

Dokonce i kdyby tě nezastavila policie, tak ve skutečnosti, ve chvíli kdyby bys to udělal, tak by naběhla obrovská banda vidláků a buranů z vil na předměstí a dala ti nakládačku, co si to dovoluješ je omezovat. Byl by si naprostá bezmocná menšina proti rozhořčené většině. A pak by si burani přivezli buldozer a jezdilo by se dál...

Samozřejmě, já očekávám nějaké větší změny v Evropě tak asi za 5 let, kdy už do toho opravdu nebude mluvit Václav Klaus... ale ono teda spousta těhle dědků ve stáří víc a víc zatvrzelejších a budou škodit, dokud to půjde. Ale jinak fakt není u takhle složité žádné rychlé a přímočaré řešení. Možná můžeme trochu víc pokřikovat na ty, kteří to pořád popírají, ale fakt nevidím jednoduchou cestu. Energeticky náročný konzum je především pohodlný a zábavný, a společnost která by ho vystřídala, se zatím jeví pracnější, a pokud něco zásadního nevymyslíme, tak i poměrně nudnější. A vzpoury tímhle směrem se moc historicky neděly...