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    TUHOKlimaticka zmena / Thank you so much for ruining my day
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    JINDRICH
    JINDRICH --- ---
    Pan-European sleeper train to sweep Britons to Berlin from May 2023 | Rail transport | The Guardian
    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/dec/28/pan-european-sleeper-train-to-sweep-britons-to-berlin-from-may-2023

    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    TADEAS: Mi to prijde hezky i s tou odvpoedi :))

    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    FB-IMG-1672306650614
    PER2
    PER2 --- ---
    Arctic climate system catastrophe - a wide ranging tour - long version
    https://youtu.be/iE6QIDJIcUQ
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    INK_FLO:

    The Line Actually Begins Construction
    https://youtu.be/l7CAS7tTk_Y
    PALEONTOLOG
    PALEONTOLOG --- ---
    https://twitter.com/mzpcr/status/1608015256021786625


    LULUCF
    https://www.mzp.cz/C1257458002F0DC7/cz/opatreni_v_ramci_lulucf/$FILE/OEOK-CZ_NFAP_FRL_final-20200203.pdf
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    TUHO: tldr pro Rusko by se do roku 2030 zas tolik nemenilo, ale potom by jeho vliv sel dramaticky do kopru, protoze Evropa je pro nej hlavni odbytistie fosilnich paliv... Zaroven je pro Rusko dost likvidacni uhlikovy clo, zaroven nema zadny kredibilni plany na low-carbon prechod.
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    A jeste neco o geopolitickem dopadu green dealu... (vybrana pasaz o Rusku). Take paper z doby pred invazi. #geopolitika

    In context, the Green Deal could have a major impact on Russia. In 2016, oil and gas revenues contributed 36 percent of the country’s government budget13 and Europe absorbed 75 percent of Russian natural gas exports and 60 percent of its crude oil exports14. Over the next decade, the EU-Russia oil and gas trade will not be substantially impacted, as Europe would only marginally reduce its oil and gas imports by 2030 even in a 55 percent emissions reduction scenario (see section 2), but the situation will radically change after 2030 when Europe is expected to substantially reduce its oil and gas imports. The EU will possibly shift from suppliers such as Russia where extraction is emissions-intensive to suppliers such as Saudi Arabia where extraction has roughly half the carbon footprint it has in Russia15.
    Moreover, a carbon border adjustment mechanism (on EU imports other than oil and gas) would also reduce Russian goods exports as they tend to be very carbon intensive (Makarov and Sokolova, 2017). It is not clear how much Russia will seek to resist these efforts. Ruslan Edelgeriev (Putin’s climate adviser) told companies in February 2020 to prepare for the EU border tax, noting that “the EU wants to push through these regulations not because they don’t like our companies, but so that their own companies don’t overstep emissions targets”16. Russia’s inefficient energy system implies many opportunities to reduce carbon intensity in its economy. There is ample scope for European cooperation with Russia on increasing the use of renewables, reducing methane leakage and boosting energy efficiency.


    https://www.bruegel.org/sites/default/files/wp_attachments/PC-04-GrenDeal-2021-1.pdf
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    TUHO: Zajimavej nahled na Novou hedvabnou stezku - Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)

    With its BRI, China is propagating the global vision of a Global Energy Interconnection (GEI; see Map 1). This study focuses on three macro-regions within the EuropeAsian continental area: Europe (consisting of the EU and its eastern, southern and southeastern neighbourhoods as well as the Middle East and North Africa); two Eurasian subregions (the South Caucasus and Central Asia); and Asia (with its subregions South Asia, Southeast Asia, and Northeast Asia).

    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    Geopolitics of Electricity: Grids, Space and (political) Power

    Although electricity grids shape and define both political and economic
    spaces, the geopolitical significance of electricity remains underestimated.
    In political communities and beyond, such grids establish new channels
    for projecting geopolitical influence and new spheres of influence.
    ∎ In the Europe-Asia continental area, integrated electricity grids meet interconnectors – that is, cross-border transmission lines linking different electric grids. Interconnectors define new, partly competing vectors of integration that extend beyond already integrated electricity grids.
    ∎ In this context, it is attractive for non-EU states to belong to the electricity
    system of continental Europe. This is because interconnected synchronous
    systems form “grid communities” that share a “common destiny” – not
    only in terms of electricity supply but also in terms of security and welfare.
    ∎ Germany and the EU must develop an electricity foreign policy in order
    to optimise, modernise, strengthen and expand the European electricity
    grid. Above all, however, Germany and the EU should help shape interconnectivity beyond the EU’s common integrated electricity grid.
    ∎ China is gaining considerable influence in the electricity sector, setting
    standards and norms as well as expanding its strategic outreach – to the
    benefit of its own economy. Its efforts are part of Beijing’s larger Belt and
    Road Initiative (BRI), an attempt to reorient global infrastructure and
    commercial flows.
    ∎ In the EU’s eastern neighbourhood, geopolitical issues have dominated
    the configuration of electricity grids since the end of the Cold War. There
    is unmistakable competition over integration between the EU and Russia.
    ∎ The eastern Mediterranean region, the Black Sea and Caspian Sea regions,
    and Central Asia are, each in their own way, changing from peripheral
    zones into interconnecting spaces. The EU, China, Russia and – across
    the Black Sea – Iran and Turkey are competing in these zones to influence the reconfiguration of electricity grids. And in South and Southeast
    Asia, India’s influence is on the rise

    https://www.swp-berlin.org/publications/products/research_papers/2022RP06_GeopoliticsOfElectricity.pdf
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    A jeste ke geopolitice a vztahu Nemecko / Rusko clanek z roku 2019


    Moscow’s position vis-à-vis the climate agreements has always been ambivalent. Yet it was instrumental in the Kyoto Protocol coming into force. Russia
    signed the Paris Agreement in 2015 and formally joined in autumn 2019 (Reuters,
    2019). On the one hand, the country is not only the fourth largest emitter of greenhouse gases, but also a major fossil fuel exporter. On the other, Russia argues that
    its energy mix is relatively clean and that emissions have decreased significantly
    in the 1990s. Beyond that, increased climate ambitions and dedicated actions can
    be seen as a blow to the Russian economic model, but also as a development that
    lessens Russia’s geopolitical influence.
    Berlin in turn has embarked on the Energiewende. A“Green Energy Transition“
    has been on the German political agenda since the 1980s, but has become an
    explicit part of policies with the Energy Concept of 2010, which were revised in
    2011 under the impact of Fukushima and accomplished by a nuclear phase-out
    by 2022. This article explores how the German (and EU) energy transformation
    has affected the German–Russian gas relations and takes a long-term perspective
    to explore how the alliance evolved and changed, how the underlying paradigms
    and notions have been adapted over time and, last but not least, how (power)
    relations have been affected by that.

    German–Russian gas relations in face of the energy transition
    https://rujec.org/article/55478/
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    Taky rok 2019, 4 scenare pro geopolitiku dekarbonizujiciho sveta

    This opinion article offers insights into the geopolitics of the ongoing global energy transition. In doing so, it draws heavily on a workshop in Berlin in late 2018, and a subsequent paper in the journal Nature. Four scenarios are presented. First, the “Big Green Deal” offers a positive story of the future, under the assumption that there will be a multilateral approach to tackling climate change. Second, “Dirty Nationalism” explores the fallout of nations choosing to turn inward and pursue a short-term, protectionist, and self-interested agenda. Third, “Technology Breakthrough” illustrates how a technological leap forward could lead to a great power rivalry and distinct regional energy blocs. Finally, “Muddling On” investigates the outcome of an energy transition that reflect business as usual. By comparing and contrasting the different scenarios, the article highlights the potential winners and losers of the different scenarios, and the geopolitical consequences. It also sketches the implications for policy, theory, and scenario thinking more broadly.

    https://wires.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/wcc.625
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    IRENA z roku 2019

    The growing deployment of renewables has set in motion a global energy transformation with significant implications for geopolitics. The Director-General of the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), Adnan Z. Amin, with the support of the Governments of Germany, Norway and the United Arab Emirates, convened the Global Commission in January 2018 to address this implications.

    Chaired by former President Ólafur Ragnar Grímsson of Iceland, the Commission comprises a diverse group of distinguished leaders from the worlds of politics, energy, economics, trade, environment and development. The Commission is an independent body with members serving in their individual capacity.

    The Commission Report analyses the geopolitical implications of the accelerating global shift to renewables. It is the culmination of deliberations by the Global Commission on the Geopolitics of Energy Transformation, involving four meetings held in Berlin, Oslo Reykjavik and Abu Dhabi respectively, as well as consultations with business leaders, academics and policy thinkers. It is informed by a number of background papers drafted by experts in the fields of energy, security and geopolitics.

    The Commission takes full and independent responsibility for this Report, which reflects the consensus of its members.

    A New World The Geopolitics of the Energy Transformation
    https://www.irena.org/publications/2019/Jan/A-New-World-The-Geopolitics-of-the-Energy-Transformation
    YMLADRIS
    YMLADRIS --- ---
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    YMLADRIS:

    Jozef Pecho
    https://www.facebook.com/1678732617/posts/10218977439221803/

    Som celkom prekvapený, že dlhodobé prognostické modely NOAA a BOM (prekvapujúco aj ECMWF) už teraz signalizujú potenciálny a veľmi rýchly nástup El Niňa (teplej fázy ENSO) v priebehu leta 2023 (JJA). Pochopiteľne, vzhľadom na pomerne veľké prognostické "okno" (>6 mesiacov) to môže skončiť pri tom, že chladná fáza ENSO (La Niňa) bude pokračovať aj naďalej, už štvrtý rok po sebe, alebo budú podmienky blízke neutrálnym (čo je z dnešného pohľadu najviac pravdepodobné).

    Ak by sa súčasné odhady predsa len potvrdili a v priebehu roka 2023 by El Niňo skutočne prišlo, prípadne by bolo aj silné (podobne ako v rokoch 2015/16), existuje reálna možnosť, že v rokoch 2024-25 globálna teplota (GT) dosiahne, resp. presiahne hranicu 1,5 °C oteplenia. Zatiaľ by to bolo len na úrovni ročného priemeru GT, no aj tak by to znamenalo, že by sme prvý krát "okúsili", čo to znamená žiť na Zemi za hranicou "veľmi nebezpečnej zmeny klímy". Rozsah prejavov a negatívnych dôsledkov by bol v takom prípade bezprecedentný! Ani to nebudeme všetko stíhať sledovať. Môže sa to celé nakoniec veľmi rýchlo zvrtnúť do kaskádových zmien (tipping points overshoot), ktoré zmenia životné prostredie na celej Zemi na "nepoznanie" ( https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-022-01545-9 alebo https://www.pik-potsdam.de/en/news/latest-news/overshooting-climate-targets-could-significantly-increase-risk-for-tipping-cascades ).

    Len pripomínam, že hranicu 1,5 °C sme na úrovni mesačnej odchýlky GT presiahli vo februári 2016 (na celej Zemi sme vtedy, okrem iného, pozorovali aj nevídane rýchle bielenie - úhyn - tropických koralov; https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-04660-w).

    Zdroje:
    https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf [NOAA]

    http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Pacific-Ocean&pacific=Forecast [BOM]
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    The melting ice of the Arctic (1/2) | DW Documentary
    https://youtube.com/watch?v=GystZIxWQ3o
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