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    TUHOKlimaticka zmena / If the fracturing of our once stable climate doesn’t terrify you, then you don’t fully understand it


    "Given the sheer enormity of climate change, it’s okay to be depressed, to grieve. But please, don’t stay there too long. Join me in pure, unadulterated, righteous anger."


    "I don’t want your hope. I don’t want you to be hopeful. I want you to panic. I want you to feel the fear I feel every day. And then I want you to act. Once you start to act, the hope is everywhere."

    "Our best scientists tell us insistently that a calamity is unfolding, that the life-support systems of the Earth are being damaged in ways that threaten our survival. Yet in the face of these facts we carry on as usual."

    “We’ve got to stop burning fossil fuels. So many aspects of life depend on fossil fuels, except for music and love and education and happiness. These things, which hardly use fossil fuels, are what we must focus on.”

    A nejde o to, že na to nemáme dostatečné technologie, ty by na řešení použít šly, ale chybí nám vůle a představivost je využít. Zůstáváme při zemi, přemýšlíme až moc rezervovaně. Technologický pokrok to sám o sobě nevyřeší. Problém jsme my, ne technologické nástroje.

    Rostouci hladiny oceanu, zmena atmosferickeho proudeni, zmeny v distribuci srazek a sucha. Zmeny karbonoveho, fosforoveho a dusikoveho cyklu, okyselovani oceanu. Jake jsou bezpecnostni rizika a jake potencialni klady dramatickych zmen fungovani zemskeho systemu?
    Ale take jak funguji masove dezinformacni kampane ropneho prumyslu a boj o verejne mineni na prahu noveho klimatickeho rezimu post-holocenu.
    rozbalit záhlaví
    SHEFIK
    SHEFIK --- ---
    #Hope

    Petrol Sales In Norway Drop 8% Year Over Year - CleanTechnica
    https://cleantechnica.com/2024/06/22/petrol-sales-in-norway-drop-8-year-over-year/

    ...fresh news from Norway showed that sales of petrol dropped a whopping 8% year over year in May. That’s a big drop in sales when you consider how little the fleet of vehicles on the road is expected to change from one year to the next. Kudos to Norway! Of course, this wasn’t achieved just from the new electric cars sold in the past year, but also from how many EVs have been sold in recent years, leading to more and more petrol-powered cars getting to the ends of their lives over time if not immediately.
    MARSHUS
    MARSHUS --- ---
    TADEAS: kdyby jenom

    Brazil counts cost of worst-ever floods with little hope of waters receding soon | Brazil | The Guardian
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/may/19/brazil-floods-toll
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    Global Warming Acceleration: Hope vs Hopium
    https://mailchi.mp/caa/global-warming-acceleration-hope-vs-hopium

    Accumulating evidence supports the interpretation in our Pipeline paper: decreasing human-made aerosols increased Earth’s energy imbalance and accelerated global warming in the past decade. Climate sensitivity and aerosol forcing, physically independent quantities, were tied together by United Nations IPCC climate assessments that rely excessively on global climate models (GCMs) and fail to measure climate forcing by aerosols. IPCC’s best estimates for climate sensitivity and aerosol forcing both understate reality. Preservation of global shorelines and global climate patterns – the world humanity is adapted to – likely will require at least partly reversing global warming. Required actions and time scale are undefined. A bright future for today’s young people is still possible, but its attainment is hampered by precatory (wishful thinking) policies that do not realistically account for global energy needs and aspirations of nations with emerging economies. An alternative is needed to the GCM-dominated perspective on climate science. We will bear a heavy burden if we stand silent or meek as the world continues on its present course.
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    TUHO: Ghosh included Cop27, which begins on 6 November in Egypt, in this damning assessment. “Cop27 will be just another talking shop. Greta Thunberg got it right when she called it ‘blah blah blah’. For those of us who have been watching negotiations for years, that has always been clear – but it came as a shock to her. One hope is that young people create a cultural change, and quickly.”
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    I was so interested by what was going on in Dimbamgombe (Africa Centre for Holistic Management) in Zimbabwe at the end of 2023 before the rain on this place, so I kept this @Sarah Savory's photo in mind and this idea that it gives so much hope to see the water cycle going on after 7 months of dry.

    FB-IMG-1710963436254
    SHEFIK
    SHEFIK --- ---
    TADEAS: realclimate se k tomu taky rozepsali:

    RealClimate: New study suggests the Atlantic overturning circulation AMOC “is on tipping course”
    https://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2024/02/new-study-suggests-the-atlantic-overturning-circulation-amoc-is-on-tipping-course/

    The new study by van Westen et al. is a major advance in AMOC stability science, coming from what I consider the world’s leading research hub for AMOC stability studies, in Utrecht/Holland.
    ...
    The paper results from a major computational effort, based on running a state-of-the-art climate model (the CESM model with horizontal resolution 1° for the ocean/sea ice and 2° for the atmosphere/land component) for 4,400 model years. This took 6 months to run on 1,024 cores at the Dutch national supercomputing facility, the largest system in the Netherlands in terms of high-performance computing.
    ...
    Now this tipping point has been demonstrated for the first time in a state-of-the-art global coupled climate model, crushing the hope that with more model detail and resolution some feedback might prevent an AMOC collapse.
    ...
    “their estimate of the tipping point (2025 to 2095, 95% confidence level) could be accurate.”
    ...
    Most models even have the wrong sign of this important diagnostic, which determines whether the feedback on Atlantic salinity is stabilising or destabilising, and this model bias is a key reason why in my view the IPCC has so far underestimated the risk of an AMOC collapse by relying on these biased climate models.
    ...
    They show how particularly northern Europe from Britain to Scandinavia would suffer devastating impacts, such as a cooling of winter temperatures by between 10 °C and 30 °C occurring within a century, leading to a completely different climate within a decade or two, in line with paleoclimatic evidence about abrupt ocean circulation changes.
    ...
    Given the impacts, the risk of an AMOC collapse is something to be avoided at all cost. As I’ve said before: the issue is not whether we’re sure this is going to happen. The issue is that we need to rule this out at 99.9 % probability. Once we have a definite warning signal it will be too late to do anything about it, given the inertia in the system.
    ...
    ...
    In the reactions to the paper, I see some misunderstand this as an unrealistic model scenario for the future. It is not. This type of experiment is not a future projection at all, but rather done to trace the equilibrium stability curve (that’s the quasi-equlibrium approach mentioned above). In order to trace the equlibrium response, the freshwater input must be ramped up extremely slowly, which is why this experiment uses so much computer time. After the model’s tipping point was found in this way, it was used to identify precursors that could warn us before reaching the tipping point, so-called “early warning signals”. Then, the scientists turned to reanalysis data (observations-based products, shown in Fig. 6 of the paper) to check for an early warning signal. The headline conclusion that the AMOC is „on tipping course“ is based on these data.

    In other words: it’s observational data from the South Atlantic which suggest the AMOC is on tipping course. Not the model simulation, which is just there to get a better understanding of which early warning signals work, and why.
    INK_FLO
    INK_FLO --- ---
    "I am convinced that we can break out of our partitioned narratives, that we can look at and listen to and learn from our doubles, even the ones we most reject. It may be our only hope."
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    It's not often that science can bring you to tears but when we are talking about the West Antarctic the science is genuinely scary and in the face of scary things we need courage. Not hope. So it's time to be brave. Come with me and find out why we have to be grown ups about West Antarctic climate change sometimes.

    We can’t save the West Antarctic. So what now?
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8_BoZDS1gjU
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    we hope you will enjoy the show

    20231106-003245
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    New Study Warns of an Imminent Spike of Planetary Warming and Deepens Divides Among Climate Scientists - Inside Climate News
    https://insideclimatenews.org/news/02112023/study-warns-of-spike-of-warming-divides-climate-scientists/

    the research was controversial even before it was published, and it may widen the rifts in the climate science community and in the broader public conversation about the severity and imminence of climate impacts, with Hansen criticizing the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for underestimating future warming, while other researchers, including IPCC authors, lambasted the new study.

    The research suggests that an ongoing reduction of sulfuric air pollution particles called aerosols could send the global average annual temperature soaring beyond the targets of the Paris climate agreement much sooner than expected, which would sharply increase the challenges faced by countries working to limit harmful climate change under international agreements on an already treacherous geopolitical stage.

    ...

    Combining the the paleoclimate data with modeling and detailed observations from the last few decades, the team concluded that the world is in for a wild ride of climate impacts, including possible superstorms that could toss house-sized boulders to the top of seaside cliffs, radical changes to global rainfall patterns that would affect agriculture in densely populated regions and possibly several meters of sea level rise by 2100, as compared to the IPCC-projected range of .29 to 1.1 meters.

    ...

    Hansen’s new research about the relative strengths of those competing effects diverges from many other studies by suggesting the cooling effect has been underestimated so that as sulfur aerosols and their effects on clouds are reduced, temperature will increase more than expected.

    How clouds will change in the decades ahead, and their interaction with aerosols, remains the single greatest uncertainty in making accurate projections for future temperature increases, according to most climate scientists. Several key satellite instruments that could have helped answer that question never made it into orbit in the 1980s and 1990s, despite repeated requests, Hansen said.

    ...

    Schmidt said a new mission called PACE (short for Plankton, Aerosol, Cloud, ocean Ecosystem) could quickly reduce the uncertainties surrounding the effects of aerosols on the climate. That satellite should be in orbit within the coming year. Copernicus, the European Union climate change service, is also launching a new satellite, EarthCARE, also with the goal of measuring the relationship of aerosols, clouds and precipitation to how much of the sun’s radiation reaches Earth to drive global heating.

    Absent those data, the new study used a process of elimination to again show reductions in sulfur aerosols were triggering accelerated warming. Comparisons with past climate periods hold some of the clues, showing, for example, that reefs along the Yucatán Peninsula grew upward and shoreward in giant spurts over the course of just a few decades, about 100,000 years ago during the late Eemian geological era. That, Hansen said, is another warning sign that parts of Earth’s climate system, and particularly ice sheets and ice shelves, are more sensitive to warming than we think.

    “The IPCC system doesn’t acknowledge the degree to which the aerosol forcing will affect the climate in the next few decades, probably more than anything else,” Simons said. “We hope we’re wrong.”
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    TADEAS: dobrej rozhodvor, anderson do rockstroma celkem subtilne šíje, ale kdyz si to tak clovek prelozi, tak to je fakt takovej hodne sofistikovanej zpusob v podstate vedomyho denialu (od rockstromma) - nebudu radsi rikat, jaky klicky (negativni emise) v tech modelech jsou, protoze uz tak jsou nase aspirace uplne na hrane (i s tema klickama), takze let's hope for the best a nemysleme moc na realnou situaci



    28:10 voluntary carbon schemes - "we really need to invest in nature, but we cannot use these sinks as offsets"

    31:40 "we have failed so much, kicking the can down the road for so many decades, that the carbon budget can only exist thanks to assumptions of negative carbon emissions technologies"


    rockstrom: rapidni snizovani emisi je dve procenta rocne, udrzeni 1.5 stupne je okolo 7 procent rocne, a udrzeni 1.5 bez CCS technologii je pres 10-15 procent rocne, coz by znamenalo totalni civilizacni marshalluv plan
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    Let’s tell the moodsplainers they’re wrong and then get back to work – Professor Jem Bendell
    https://jembendell.com/2023/08/05/lets-tell-the-moodsplainers-theyre-wrong-and-then-get-back-to-work/

    One of the chief ‘moodsplainers’ is the famous author Rebecca Solnit. When her ‘doom-shaming’ was challenged on her Facebook page, she defended her position with the claim that scientists tell her it’s not too late (presumably for our modern societies). She referenced the climatologist Michael Mann as evidence for her claim (see the screenshot). Known to be a prolific author, he was in good company when declaring in 2009 that if emissions did not peak by 2020 and consistently decline, then humanity would be in for the roughest of rides, in a situation where various feedbacks would likely amplify changes. As you may already know, emissions went up last year. But the 2023 version of Professor Mann appears to have forgotten his past assessment. Clearly, hope springs eternal. Especially if wishful thinking is a non-negotiable aspect of one’s identity, worldview and status. The suggestion by Solnit that all scientists agree must ignore the hundreds of scientists and scholars who have publicly disagreed that it is not too late to transition to a sustainable form of our current societies, including leading climatologists Professor Gesa Weyhenmeyer and Professor Will Steffen

    ...

    After my paper on climate change went viral in 2018, a big part of my next two years was talking with psychologists and reading the relevant psychology research. That got me invited to keynote at conferences of the psychology peak bodies around the world, and to publish in peer-reviewed psychology journals. I learned that research finds how so-called “catastrophic imaginaries” are powerful motivators whereas optimism can be demotivating on environmental issues. So when the new head of the IPCC, Jim Skea, tells the media that “we should not despair and fall into a state of shock” if global temperatures increase to 1.5C, it is likely he does not know what he is talking about, psychologically-speaking, and is simply expressing his own proclivities.

    ...

    You have probably seen some version of the illogical claim that “doomism breeds apathy and inactivism, and there are far too many doomers in Extinction Rebellion and other activist groups.” It wasn’t named the optimist’s incremental change rebellion, was it? Even XR’s critics have a better appreciation of activist motivations than the armchair anti-doomers. When trying to claim that such activism is a form of extremism that the British government should crack down on, guess who was the academic the Policy Exchange think tank cited the most for ideas motivating Extinction Rebellion? Yes, that’s me, the guy that GQ magazine called the “doomer-in-chief”. That was in an article that Facebook then filtered from view, like they have done with so much doomster content since 2020 – a global form of censorship and public manipulation I will discuss further in a moment.

    ...

    The ‘doomster way’ is naturally rebellious and radical. Which means we pose a threat to the establishment. Which is why they are responding with moodsplaining, telling us we should believe in the system – technology, enterprise, capital, charismatic leaders, and so on. That is how ‘stubborn optimism’ can become functional in ongoing oppression. The worst instance of this approach is when they pathologise the youth for having a more honest assessment of the situation. To believe that the experts and elites need to fix the emotions of young people by providing more positive stories seems to me to be an arrogant form of ‘experiential avoidance’ on the part of adults, and even a form of psychological child abuse. Instead, young people need us adults to grow up and meet them in a far more honest way. To hold the possibility that young people are closer to the truth than many adults, and explore what the options are from such an outlook.

    ...

    people in frontline communities have criticised the stories of a sustainability transition that are promoted in Western media to comfort their audiences. Kenya climate activist, scholar and agroforester Dr Nyambura Mbau argues “The millions of people being uprooted by climate change do not benefit from the ‘stubborn optimism’ of environmental elites. Instead, they will be better served by the stubborn realism of the experts and activists now brave enough to call for urgent degrowth in rich countries and fair adaptation everywhere.” Solnit’s claim is not unusual, with the same argument made to slur people like me over the last few years, even in publications like the New Internationalist (which then retracted and apologised). If people are busy thinking and communicating like white saviours, then they can overlook what is being said and done by the independent activists and scholars from across the Global South

    ...

    There is now a huge faction of capital that wants to limit the environmental agenda to promoting renewable energy, nuclear power, and electrical products like cars. There is also a huge professional sector ‘climate users’ who are driven to have a successful career with a green sheen. They are joined by a wider ‘sustainable development’ sectors of hundreds of thousands of professionals who are now compulsively lying to each other to ignore the data from the UN on what’s really happening.

    It is extremely worrying for democracy and good governance, globally, that the moodsplainers are now backed up by the censorship teams in the bigtech companies, who shadow ban content on climate that doesn’t align with the capitalist-friendly ecomodern view of the future. For years, their climate ‘factchecking’ outfits don’t even bother to reply to internationally renowned climatologists who criticise their shadow banning activities. Thus, the general public is left misinformed, less radical, and more compliant for incumbent power.
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    As Beijing swelters, activists hope the heat will prompt climate action | China | The Guardian
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/30/as-beijing-swelters-activists-hope-the-heat-will-prompt-climate-action

    although there is some limited education about climate change, permitted discourse stops short of talking about major policy shifts, such as reducing China’s coal emissions more rapidly. The government has pledged to become carbon neutral by 2060, but concerns about energy security and the need for economic growth mean that local authorities are showing no sign of backing down on building new coal power.

    Also, says Zhao, “even if people link heatwaves and climate change, they don’t think it’s something that the individual should pay attention to.” Most people see it as being the government’s responsibility – and therefore out of the hands of the public, she says.

    Still, awareness of climate change, and discussion about how it can be managed, is ticking up. The topic is increasingly discussed in state media. Analysis by Sixth Tone, a state-backed outlet, found that mentions of key words relating to climate change jumped from about 750,000 in 2019 to nearly 3.3m in 2021.

    Surveys suggest that, compared with the US, a slightly higher proportion of Chinese people accept that climate change is happening and that it is caused by human activity.
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    CACOR: The Big Picture: Beyond Hope and Fear - Michael Dowd
    https://youtu.be/hV91pH8HORo


    CACOR: The Big Picture: Beyond Hope and Fear - Michael Dowd

    52-minute presentation delivered via Zoom on May 3, 2023 to the Canadian Association for the Club of Rome (CACOR) to be my most important and emotionally supportive video to-date.

    DESCRIPTION: No one needs convincing that we are living in an age of chaos and breakdowns. Even those without benefit of an ecological understanding of history feel the stress. How do we cope? How can we escape the seesaw of hope and fear? And, crucially, how can we be of support to others who are confused, angry, depressed, or filled with fear, blame, or guilt?
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1658883442774245382

    There's interannual natural variability so the temperature is sure to come back below 1.5C in a number of subsequent years.

    1.5C in one year is beyond catastrophic. But what's most important is the sustained *average* temperature over multiple years.

    Since 2016 we've been in a 1.2C average temperature regime (climate).

    We might be headed, practically overnight, into a 1.5C climate. This is a paradigm shift from where we are now.

    Even 1.4C, probably the minimum we can reasonably hope for, would be a paradigm shift.

    This El Nino is by far the most significant and destructive event to ever hit our civilisation and that includes WW2. Due to Earth's Energy imbalance, once the average temperature goes up it won't come back down. These step-changes in Earth's climate can never be reversed.

    If you want evidence of the capture of the expert class, look no further than the ridiculous assertion that 20 years will be needed before being able to declare the 1.5C threshold broken. When the time comes people will know whether it's been broken because it will be obvious. An average over several years is enough
    INK_FLO
    INK_FLO --- ---
    TADEAS: "love, fate, destiny, hope"
    JINDRICH
    JINDRICH --- ---
    We looked at 1,200 possibilities for the planet’s future. These are our best hope.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/interactive/2022/global-warming-1-5-celsius-scenarios/
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    The rich world is wrong to think that climate impacts in poor countries don’t matter | The Economist
    https://www.economist.com/special-report/2022/11/01/the-rich-world-is-wrong-to-think-that-climate-impacts-in-poor-countries-dont-matter

    https://twitter.com/jembendell/status/1591832451671891968?s=19


    https://twitter.com/jembendell/status/1591834388462968834?s=19
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    Climate Honesty – are we ‘beyond catastrophe’? – Professor Jem Bendell
    https://jembendell.com/2022/11/06/climate-honesty-are-we-beyond-catastrophe/

    David Wallace Wells, in the New York Times, in Beyond Catastrophe, argues that whereas the bad news is that climate impacts are worse than anticipated and we are heading for a disrupted future, the good news is that both action on climate change and some recalculations mean that the future looks less apocalyptic. I wondered if there was new evidence for this recalibrating of expectations, so I looked at the evidence he uses. Aside from the heartening data and expert opinions he shares on how climate awareness and action has been growing, just three scientific sources are offered for the view that humanity is already acting on climate enough to offer some hope of avoiding catastrophe. In this article I will look at those sources, and compare them with other authoritative analysis, to show that such claims for renewed hope are, sadly, insubstantial. Instead, reframing our situation to offer an emotional escape from the dire reality could be counter-productive, by giving people an excuse for remaining in service of the current systems that are destroying life on Earth. Instead, a more realistic understanding of the tragedy that humanity faces is already producing forms of reassessment and radicalisation that offer a basis for resilient social action in pursuit of lesser dystopias.
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    ‘It felt like a funeral’: William Shatner reflects on voyage to space | William Shatner | The Guardian
    https://www.theguardian.com/culture/2022/oct/11/it-felt-like-a-funeral-william-shatner-reflects-on-voyage-to-space

    “Everything I had thought was wrong. Everything I had expected to see was wrong,” he wrote. “I had thought that going into space would be the ultimate catharsis of that connection I had been looking for between all living things – that being up there would be the next beautiful step to understanding the harmony of the universe.”

    The Canadian, who captivated the world in his role as Captain James Kirk of Star Trek’s USS Enterprise, broke down in tears upon landing, describing having had “the most profound experience I can imagine”. “I hope I never recover from this,” he said at the time. “I’m so filled with emotion about what just happened. It’s extraordinary, extraordinary

    But a year after touching down back to Earth, Shatner wrote in the excerpt: “I discovered that the beauty isn’t out there, it’s down here, with all of us. Leaving that behind made my connection to our tiny planet even more profound.”

    “It was among the strongest feelings of grief I have ever encountered. The contrast between the vicious coldness of space and the warm nurturing of Earth below filled me with overwhelming sadness.

    “Every day, we are confronted with the knowledge of further destruction of Earth at our hands: the extinction of animal species, of flora and fauna … things that took 5bn years to evolve, and suddenly we will never see them again because of the interference of mankind. It filled me with dread.

    “My trip to space was supposed to be a celebration; instead, it felt like a funeral.”
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