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    TUHOKlimaticka zmena / Destroying the Future Is the Most Cost-Effective


    "Given the sheer enormity of climate change, it’s okay to be depressed, to grieve. But please, don’t stay there too long. Join me in pure, unadulterated, righteous anger."


    "I don’t want your hope. I don’t want you to be hopeful. ... I want you to act. Once you start to act, the hope is everywhere."

    "Our best scientists tell us insistently that a calamity is unfolding, that the life-support systems of the Earth are being damaged in ways that threaten our survival. Yet in the face of these facts we carry on as usual."

    Rostouci hladiny oceanu, zmena atmosferickeho proudeni, zmeny v distribuci srazek a sucha. Zmeny karbonoveho, fosforoveho a dusikoveho cyklu, okyselovani oceanu. Jake jsou bezpecnostni rizika a jake potencialni klady dramatickych zmen fungovani zemskeho systemu?
    Ale take jak funguji masove dezinformacni kampane ropneho prumyslu a boj o verejne mineni na prahu noveho klimatickeho rezimu post-holocenu.
    rozbalit záhlaví
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    TADEAS: nate hagens ad cinske stagnujici emise TADEAS


    China's CO2 emissions were flat or slightly down, down 3/10ths of 1% in 2025. And again, every news outlet is framing this chart as proof the green transition is working. That's looking at the chart, but let's look at the system. Chinese coal production hit an all-time record of 4.8 billion tons in 2025, up 1.2%. Coal power capacity additions hit their highest level in a decade. New coal project proposals surged to a record 1.6 gigawatt and China still consumes nearly 40% more coal than the rest of the world combined.


    So where did the emission savings come from?

    Cement production collapsed close to 10% due to the real estate contraction. Building materials, metals, and steel all down. So the emissions decline isn't clean energy replacing dirty energy in a growing economy. It's partly a construction sector in freefall masking continued and growing coal dependence and the chemical sector which is coal to chemicals grew their emissions 12%.

    This is the EU renewable story again just from the other direction. The metric and the graphics in the news — flat emissions — looks like progress. But the system — record coal, collapsing cement on a real estate crisis — tells us something very different
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    IEA, NO PROGRESS ON COAL CONSUMPTION TO 2030

    International Energy Agency, Coal 2025.

    2030 World coal consumption 55% higher than 2000, and the same as 2020.

    China 2030 projected same as 2020.

    China's big 2020 jump is maintained

    World headed for climatic biospere collapse fast.

    https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/113a8274-500c-4684-951f-947d25bef3c9/Coal2025.pdf

    FB-IMG-1771415699915
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    nie panimaju

    "must sharply fall"

    Screenshot-20251126-221803-Facebook

    the world has moved from a safe operating space into zones of rising and high risk between 1997, 2015 and 2025. A business-as-usual path would further degrade ecosystems and strain societies. In contrast, effective overshoot management could still put the world on track for net-zero by mid-century and net-negative emissions by century’s end



    Commentary: rising planetary risks after missed decade of action — Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
    https://www.pik-potsdam.de/en/news/latest-news/commentary-scientists-outline-rising-planetary-risks-after-missed-decade-of-action

    In the commentary published in One Earth, scientists of The Earth League alliance conclude that “too little was done too late” in the last decade, from 2015 to 2025: global warming is on track to exceed 1.5°C in the coming years, with seven of nine planetary boundaries already breached. They also note that progress towards global sustainability goals is lagging: only 15 percent of the UN Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) targets are currently on track for 2030.
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    Compromises, voluntary measures and no mention of fossil fuels: key points from Cop30 deal | Cop30 | The Guardian
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/nov/22/roadmaps-adaptations-and-transitions-what-climate-measures-were-agreed-at-cop30

    The roadmap for the transition away from fossil fuels was blocked from the formal Cop30 decision and the Brazilian presidency announced the plan would proceed outside the UN process. It will be merged with a plan backed by Colombia and about 90 other countries, with a summit set for April. This “coalition of the willing” could push progress forward.

    The Cop30 president, André Corrêa do Lago, said the plan to develop the roadmap had the support of President Lula and would involve high-level dialogues over the next year, led by science and involving governments, industry and civil society. Once complete, he said they would report back to Cop.

    “Those governments committed to tackling the climate crisis at its source are uniting to move forward outside the UN, under the leadership of Colombia and Pacific Island states, to phase out fossil fuels rapidly, equitably, and in line with 1.5C,” said Nikki Reisch, at the Center for International Environmental Law. “The international conference next April is the first stop on the path to a livable future.”
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    Elon Musk suggests AI satellites could dial down global warming
    https://interestingengineering.com/space/elon-musk-solar-radiation-management-geoengineering

    while Musk’s companies have unmatched reach in space infrastructure, scaling an SRM system to planetary levels is another story. “It would be far easier said than done,” as one analyst put it, especially given that even the most advanced SRM proposals remain largely theoretical.

    Beyond the science, there’s also geopolitics. Who decides when and how to shade the planet? And what happens if one nation’s cooling efforts trigger droughts in another?

    there’s no indication SpaceX is working on SRM-capable satellites. For now, the comment seems more like a thought experiment than a corporate roadmap.

    Yet Musk’s timing is telling. With heat records being broken year after year, and progress on emissions lagging, even the most radical climate ideas are starting to sound less far-fetched
    CHOSIE
    CHOSIE --- ---
    “New research explores climate change and the limits of human progress…

    "The deeper problem, he argues, lies in the complexity of civilization itself—a global industrial society that has grown both unsustainably expensive and dangerously vulnerable to the environmental stresses that accompany climate change."

    "A lot of people confuse pessimism with nihilism, apathy and despair," Scranton said. "But pessimism is actually about recognizing our limits, letting go of unrealistic goals, finding solidarity in the fact of human suffering and doing what you can now, not in some utopian future."

    "Modern pessimism emerged as a skeptical critique of early Enlightenment hubris, but it has roots in ancient wisdom from Sophocles to the Bhagavad Gita. Both the history of philosophy and modern insights from psychology show that pessimism is not only an effective way to deal with big problems, but a healthy approach to the unpredictability of circumstance, especially in fraught and difficult times."

    In "Impasse," Scranton examines the "myth of progress"—how cultures have navigated societal collapse, failures in climate change communication, political extremism and "the end of the world as we know it"—ultimately concluding that the situation does not seem to be comprehensible within progressive modernity.

    "Pessimism is fundamentally about recognizing and living within natural human limits,” Scranton writes. “It’s about recognizing that suffering is inevitable but not unbearable. It’s about learning to die and learning to live with death. And finally, it’s about committing to a radical and paradoxical hope: the hope that life might be worth living after the end of the world."

    https://phys.org/news/2025-09-explores-climate-limits-human.html
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    Cop16 ends in disarry and indecision despite biodiversity breakthroughs | Cop16 | The Guardian
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/nov/03/cop16-ends-in-disarry-and-indecision-despite-biodiversity-breakthroughs

    Governments failed to reach a consensus on key issues such as nature funding and how this decade’s targets would be monitored. Many were forced to leave the talks early to catch flights, and negotiations were suspended at 8.30am when fewer than half of the countries were present, and the meeting lost quorum. Countries will need to continue the talks next year at an interim meeting in Bangkok.

    A number of countries expressed fury at the way the talks had been dragged out and the order of discussions, which left crucial issues undecided at the final hour.

    ...

    Governments were able to make some significant breakthroughs: they agreed on a global levy on products made using genetic data from nature, potentially creating one of the world’s largest biodiversity conservation funds; and formally incorporated Indigenous communities in the official decision-making of the UN biodiversity process, in what negotiators described as a “watershed moment” for indigenous representation.

    ...

    During the summit, it became clear that many countries were making weak or no progress on crucial aims such as reforming environmentally harmful subsidies, protected areas and even submitting national plans for meeting the targets.

    “We saw insufficient leadership from the wealthier countries, the European Union and France in particular, Canada, Switzerland, Japan, the UK, but also China. The executive secretary of the UN convention on biodiversity was also quite phantomatic,” said Oscar Soria, director of thinktank the Common Initiative.
    CHOSIE
    CHOSIE --- ---
    Pár dalších článků k COP(e)-29, mluvit o 1.5C je šaškárna. Ony i 2 stupně jsou na prahu dvěří.

    COP29 and the greenwashing of Azerbaijan
    https://archive.ph/6ZZd6
    Subscribe to read
    https://www.ft.com/content/d1959d12-c099-4c45-ab1f-3558ec3370c1


    Little progress at key meet ahead of COP29 climate summit
    https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20241011-little-progress-at-key-meet-ahead-of-cop29-climate-summit

    World fails first review of COP renewable energy goal – POLITICO
    https://www.politico.eu/article/dramatic-spending-surge-needed-to-hit-clean-energy-goals-world-renewables-agency-warns/

    x.com
    https://x.com/KiraTaylor15/status/1845896282772005273
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    Europe was a leader on saving nature. Now, its backsliding could threaten global progress | Biodiversity | The Guardian
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/oct/09/europe-eu-green-deal-backsliding-nature-biodiversity-farmers-far-right-cop16-aoe

    EU leaders scaled back plans to cut pollution and protect habitats after angry protests from farmers at the start of the year. A law to restore nature was turned into a political punching bag, barely securing majorities in key votes to rubber-stamp the deal, and a regulation to reduce deforestation will be delayed by a year, the commission announced last week.

    The backsliding has alarmed conservationists and scientists, who fear that biodiversity loss is being pushed to the sidelines on the eve of the world’s most significant nature negotiations.

    ...

    The most vocal opponents of Europe’s nature protection plans are far-right parties, which completely oppose the EU’s “green deal”, and centre-right parties, which nominally back the project but have repeatedly tried to weaken it. Both groups gained seats at the expense of the Greens in European parliament elections in June, in a rightward shift that has been echoed in national and regional elections across the continent.

    ...

    Pe’er said: “Instead of resilience, sustainability and planetary boundaries – not to speak of nature or biodiversity – we now hear the words competitiveness, boosting our economy, and helping the industry.

    ...

    Europe’s recent efforts to protect nature have been mixed. The EU failed to meet its 2020 biodiversity targets and risks falling short of its 2030 protection targets, too. In 2021, most of its member countries failed to pay their fair share of a $20bn (£15.3bn) a year commitment to protect nature, according to an analysis from the ODI in June.

    Just eight of the 27 member states have revised their national biodiversity strategies and action plans, and only the same number have submitted pledges to protect nature
    MARSHUS
    MARSHUS --- ---
    MARSHUS: modely vs. realita:

    #Milton intensified 70mph in just ~12 hours and intensified 100mph from yesterday morning.

    One of the most extreme cases of rapid intensification we’ve ever seen in history and it’s still in progress/yet to hit peak intensity.
    SHEFIK
    SHEFIK --- ---
    CHOSIE: cteme stejne, ale evidentne si vykladame autorovy cile sdeleni jinak.

    Electric vehicles (EVs) tap into this mentality,
    making them seem like an effective way for each of us to personally address climate change.

    - ale on to je effective way, jen nedosahujeme dostatecne rychlosti a skaly

    EVs are a clever marketing ploy that seems logical on the surface but lacks real substance.

    - woot?

    Fixating on
    EVs doesn’t change the larger transportation picture, which includes trucks, trains, and ships.

    - doporucuji autorovi nastudovat definici electric vehicle

    Looking closer, most of the growth in industrial oil use is tied to plastics and chemical feedstocks. That’s a major red flag.

    - tak zapomeneme na EVs, protoze jde o marketingovou zalezitost a protoze tezbu ropy drivuji i jine faktory? Kdyz ma pan tak rad cisla a zveda red flagy, jak vyroba plastu prispiva k emisim sklenikovych plynu? Vice, nebo mene nez ev?

    These products aren’t just a
    climate issue—they’re causing significant health problems for humans and animals alike. We’re talking about plastics, pesticides, and endocrine-disrupting
    microplastics that are already wreaking havoc well beyond the realm of climate change.

    - Takze ted uz nejde jen o klima, zapomeneme na 8% a zatahnem do toho i roztomily nekvantifikovany a neurcity zviratka? Jablka/hrusky/cisla/fakta/emoce

    The only real solution to our environmental crises—climate change being just one part—is a dramatic reduction in energy consumption.
    No amount of renewables or technological innovation will get around this hard truth: we have to use far less energy, period.

    But let’s be honest—that’s not going to happen voluntarily, any more than we’ll triple renewables and double efficiency in the next five years.

    - Kdo rika, ze bude civilizace net zero za 5 let? Znamena to, ze se nemame snazit o co nejvyssi rychlost transformace, prostredky jako EVs a Renewable energy? Protoze to z textu tak nastinuje. Ale jinak castecne souhlasim, nemeli bychom energii pouzivat neefektivne.

    Despite clear evidence that global decarbonization is failing, we’re repeatedly told that using more renewables and buying more EVs is the answer.
    That’s a cynical delusion, completely unsupported by the data.

    - woot? Unsupported by data? Absolutne mozna, ale ze tu mame paralelni rust spotreby a nejsme schopni vyrabet vic, je spis impulzem, ze bychom meli pridat a ne to vzdat?

    All it really does is funnel more public money into the hands of the same corporations
    that have been exploiting consumers for decades, all while creating the illusion of progress.

    - woot? Illusion of progress? V EV, bateriich a renewables jsme se nikam technologicky neposunuli za poslednich 10 let?

    This kind of optimism provides little more than false hope, downplaying the serious, complex challenge of truly cutting carbon emissions.

    - a to je dle pana jak? Jak uvadel, sam vi, ze civilozace se nezastavi. Nikdo zejtra veskerej proud, ani olej nevypne.

    Electric vehicles and renewable
    energy are a distraction from the hard realities we face.

    - tak urcite :))
    CHOSIE
    CHOSIE --- ---
    Electric Vehicles and Renewables: Misleading Solutions to a Deeper Climate Crisis
    ____________________________

    Cars dominate our energy mindset just like gasoline prices are the main way we understand energy costs. Electric vehicles (EVs) tap into this mentality,
    making them seem like an effective way for each of us to personally address climate change.
    ____________________________

    EVs are a clever marketing ploy that seems logical on the surface but lacks real substance. The reality is that passenger cars contribute only about 8 %
    of global emissions—a relatively small part of the bigger problem that is being overlooked.
    ____________________________

    // What about yesterday’s announcement from the International Energy Agency (IEA) claiming that renewables can get us two-thirds of the way to
    meeting Paris climate targets by 2030, and cut global emissions by 10 billion tonnes by the decade’s end?

    It sounds impressive, but here’s the catch: it demands ‘tripling renewables and doubling efficiency targets’ in just five years. That’s an incredibly
    unrealistic goal, and arguably disingenuous. Even the IEA admits it’s a steep climb, and reaching those objectives is far from guaranteed.
    ____________________________

    Isn’t it true that EV sales have tripled since 2020? Sure, that’s accurate, but it’s misleading. New car sales are just a tiny slice of the total vehicle fleet.
    In 2023, nearly 14 million electric cars hit the roads, bringing the global total to 40 million. But 40 million is only 2.8 % of all passenger cars. By 2025,
    they’ll make up just 4% of global light vehicles, and only 7% by 2030.
    ____________________________

    Yes, wind and solar are expanding rapidly, but here’s the problem: they aren’t cutting fossil fuel use. They’re simply being layered on top of it. The growth
    in renewables isn’t displacing fossil fuels—it’s just adding to the overall energy mix.

    Unfortunately, these energy sources mostly contribute to electricity, which is only about 20% of total energy consumption. Meanwhile, coal, natural gas,
    and oil aren’t going away—they’re still growing. Natural gas will rise by 0.8% per year, oil by 0.5%, and coal by 0.4%.

    When we focus on oil consumption, the problem becomes even clearer. Global oil end use is projected to grow 0.7% annually through 2035. Fixating on
    EVs doesn’t change the larger transportation picture, which includes trucks, trains, and ships. Nor does it address the industrial sector’s energy demands.
    In fact, industrial oil use will grow at twice the rate of transportation over the next decade, and that’s where the real challenge lies.
    ____________________________

    Looking closer, most of the growth in industrial oil use is tied to plastics and chemical feedstocks. That’s a major red flag. These products aren’t just a
    climate issue—they’re causing significant health problems for humans and animals alike. We’re talking about plastics, pesticides, and endocrine-disrupting
    microplastics that are already wreaking havoc well beyond the realm of climate change.

    In reality, they’re (renewable energy, EVs) more about corporations adapting to a shifting landscape and finding new ways to make money. The climate
    angle is secondary to the business opportunities these technologies present.
    ____________________________

    The only real solution to our environmental crises—climate change being just one part—is a dramatic reduction in energy consumption.
    No amount of renewables or technological innovation will get around this hard truth: we have to use far less energy, period.

    But let’s be honest—that’s not going to happen voluntarily, any more than we’ll triple renewables and double efficiency in the next five years.
    Our growth-obsessed society simply can’t make the hard choices or accept the drop in living standards necessary for a much lower-energy
    or renewable-based economy.

    Despite clear evidence that global decarbonization is failing, we’re repeatedly told that using more renewables and buying more EVs is the answer.
    That’s a cynical delusion, completely unsupported by the data. All it really does is funnel more public money into the hands of the same corporations
    that have been exploiting consumers for decades, all while creating the illusion of progress.

    This kind of optimism provides little more than false hope, downplaying the serious, complex challenge of truly cutting carbon emissions. Instead of
    pretending we’re nearing some IEA-style “mission accomplished,” we should be bracing for the impending crisis. Electric vehicles and renewable
    energy are a distraction from the hard realities we face.

    Electric Vehicles and Renewables: Misleading Solutions to a Deeper Climate Crisis | Art Berman
    https://www.artberman.com/blog/electric-vehicles-and-renewables-misleading-solutions-to-a-deeper-climate-crisis/
    CHOSIE
    CHOSIE --- ---
    China has more than 1 billion tons/year of new coal mines in pipeline, report says
    https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/china-has-more-than-1-bln-tonsyear-new-coal-mines-pipeline-report-says-2024-09-10/
    China developing 1.28 bln tons of coal mining capacity
    Chinese mines in progress more than half global pipeline
    35% of projects in pipeline under construction
    Current large-scale capacity is 3.88 mln metric tons/year
    China responsible for 70% of coal mine methane emissions
    YMLADRIS
    YMLADRIS --- ---
    #dopady

    povodne v pakistanu, hlad. Je mi 14, měla jsem radost že se budu vdávat. Myslela jsem že dostanu rtěnku a šaty. Ale manžel nemá práci a můj život je ještě horší než dřív (s půlročním kojencem). Rodina žije za dolar na den, za nevěstu dostane třeba 720 dolarů, jenže ženich to pořídil na dluh a nemá z čeho splácet

    "We would expect to see an 18 percent increase in the prevalence of child marriage, equivalent to erasing five years of progress," it said in a report after the 2022 floods.

    Dildar Ali Sheikh, 31, had planned to marry off his eldest daughter Mehtab while living in an aid camp after being displaced by the floods.

    "When I was there, I thought to myself 'we should get our daughter married so at least she can eat and have basic facilities'," the daily wage labourer told AFP.

    Mehtab was just 10 years old.

    "The night I decided to get her married, I couldn't sleep," said her mother, Sumbal Ali Sheikh, who was 18 when she married.

    An intervention from the NGO Sujag Sansar led to the wedding being postponed, and Mehtab was enrolled in a sewing workshop, allowing her to earn a small income while continuing her education.

    But when the monsoon rains fall, she is overcome by dread that her promised wedding will also arrive.

    How Extreme Weather Is Leading To Rise In Child Marriages In Pakistan
    https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/how-extreme-weather-is-leading-to-rise-in-child-marriages-in-pakistan-6347952
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    YMLADRIS: Mozna te spatne chapu, ale tak imho tam dlouho jsme. Napriklad viz RCP a pozdeji SSP scenare IPCC.

    Shared Socioeconomic Pathways - Wikipedia
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shared_Socioeconomic_Pathways

    Plus IPCC ma k tomu nekolik 2 tisice stran dlouhou zpravu, to mi prijde celkem dost

    Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change
    The Working Group III report provides an updated global assessment of climate change mitigation progress and pledges, and examines the sources of global emissions. It explains developments in emission reduction and mitigation efforts, assessing the impact of national climate pledges in relation to long-term emissions goals.

    https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg3/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGIII_FullReport.pdf
    SHEFIK
    SHEFIK --- ---
    GB/UK nova vlada a jejich vladni energeticka firma

    As the Climate Change Committee (CCC) recently made clear, there is one obvious answer to preventing us being so exposed again – a sprint for homegrown clean energy. As it said in its progress report to parliament last week: “British-based renewable energy is the cheapest and fastest way to reduce vulnerability to volatile global fossil-fuel markets. The faster we get off fossil fuels, the more secure we become.”

    Within a week of coming to power, the new government lifted the onshore windfarms ban, appointed the former head of the CCC, Chris Stark, to drive forward that clean-energy target, announced a rooftop solar-panel revolution and established a new national wealth fund with the chancellor for green investment.
    Today, we take the next steps. What was also clear from the election is how much the British people understood the case for Great British Energy, our new publicly owned energy company. In post-election polling by the organisation More in Common, Great British Energy enjoyed the support of 73% of all voters and 56% of 2024 Conservative voters.

    Great British Energy is becoming a reality – bringing with it cheap, clean and secure energy | Energy | The Guardian
    https://amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/jul/25/great-british-energy-ed-miliband-labour-clean-power
    CHOSIE
    CHOSIE --- ---
    SHEFIK:
    o jeho podcenovani covidu toho moc nevim, nicmene to je zase cernobila zkratka :) zadny clovek nema ultimatni pravdu ve vsem, nebo patent na rozum.

    Tím jsem jen zmínil proč se mi to jméno vybavilo, to že má vaznost na uhelný a ropný průmysl a vznesl dosti pochybné tvrzení, které zní jak z knihy climate deniers jsou o dost větší red flags, zároveň s tím, že nemá ani akademickou vazbu, dle wiki je "science writer, journalist and businessman" (a libertarian, another red flag). Proč si raději neposlechnout antropology, klimatology, ekology, aj.?

    The Man Who Wants to Northern Rock the Planet

    Matt Ridley accused of lobbying UK government on behalf of coal industry

    Souhlasím s tím, že nějakého zjednodušení se člověk dopustit musí, pakliže pokrývá multidisciplinární tématiku a snaží se ji nějak shrnout, sám několik takových autorů sleduji a myslím, že je to potřeba, protože žádné téma a věda neexistuje ve vákuu.
    Za mě dost dobrá kniha, která zahrnuje všemožná témata a problémy:

    Reality Blind: Integrating the Systems Science Underpinning Our Collective Futurest
    Uvadis kolik lidi upozornilo na to, ze co2 dokaze atmosferu ohrat, ale to nikdo, ani ja v mych prispevcich nerozporuju. Zaroven se ti nepovedlo odpovedet ani na jednu z mych otazek :)
    Snažil jsem se odpovědět s myšlenkou, že se bavíme o rozmachu průmyslového zemědělství a věcí s ním spjatých a reagoval tím, že tyto témata a teorie započaly před ním.

    Otázky níže jsou velmi obecné, takže nevím z jakého úhlu a perspektivy vycházíe, ale pokusím se.
    Myslis, ze pokud bychom negenerovali prebytky, byli bychom si zmeny klimatu vedomi?
    V rámci generací si lidstvo změn všímat může, nicméně pokud půjdeme k morku kosti, tak přebytek nám obecně poskytl všechny možné příležitosti a možnosti. Ani jednou jsem v předešlé konverzaci nic proti tomu nenamítal, nebo netvrdil opak, takže netuším proč se na to vůbec ptáš. Nicméně když už tě to tak zajímá.
    Je také rozdíl mezi tím, obstarat potravu tak rychle/nenáročně, že má člověk čas navíc (zjednodušeně), nebo mít fosilní paliva, kde barel ropy je schopen nahradit 6 let fyzické práce jednoho člověka, která navrch nahodnocujeme pouze dle ceny extrakce/zpracování.

    Z jíného úhlu mohu také říct, že nebýt oněch přebytků (v podobě fosilní energie) tak by ona změna klimatu na steroidech vedena antropogenními emisemi neprobíhala, takže bych také mohl odpovědět "nebýt přebytků nebylo by co vnímat". Nicméně jsem názoru založeného na ekologických teoriích a poznáních (např. tzv. maximum power principle, ecological overshoot..), že by lidstvo klima v dlouhodobém meřítku tak či onak ovlivnilo, pokud by nedošlo k zásadním změnám v tom jak funguje (tzn. pokud by lidstvo pokračovalo tak dál, jen neobjevilo fosilní paliva), ale to už bych hodně teoretizoval.
    byli bychom ji schopni pokrocile merit?
    Hádám, že se odkazujeme na přebytek, zodpovězeno v otázce výše,
    byli bychom o ni schopni komunikovat na celoplanetarni urovni s takovym zasahem?
    Hádám, že se odkazujeme na přebytek, zodpovězeno v otázce výše.
    Zde jsem zmínil hlavně to, že komunikujeme přes 50 let, ale nevím kde je ten "zásah", nebo změna směru. Zároveň nemůžu říct, že je to chyba někoho konkrétního, jako společnost si nějak definujeme naše cíle, málokdo se dobrovolně vzdá jákehokoliv pohodlí a jsem názoru, že fungujeme jako superorganismus a nikdo přímo nekoordinuje onen směr.
    Byli bychom schopni ji predikovat?
    Hádám, že se odkazujeme na přebytek, zodpovězeno v otázce výše.
    K predikcím a modelacím, ale mohu dodat, že je to něco do čeho bychom měli investovat mnohem více.

    Co je tedy tvá téze, sdílený článek bylo o tom, že dojde k vrcholu produkce potravin, zmíněn byl hlavně klimatický chaos, ale k tomu jsem dodal i absolutní závislost na neobnovitelných zdrojích - od samotné techniky, po hnojiva a další. Úbytku půdy, vody, znečištění, viz odkazy níže.
    Ty jsi navrhl, že v záloze je GMO, u kterého jsem uznal, že může být jakousi náplastí na střelnou ránu, ale to samotné krvácení to nezastaví.
    S tím jak popisuješ (soudě, dle té knihy) to jak lidstvo funguje a historicky se vyvýjí takhle obrazně zcela souhlasit nemohu, ale musel by ses víc rozepsat.

    ...jez je zalozena na prebytcich, ktere dale umoznuji specializaci, jez dale umoznuje vyssi efektivitu, tedy vice prebytku. Tzn. to kritizovani rustu a prebytku je ve svem principu uplne spatne, protoze prebytky jsou to, co lidstvu umoznilo dlouhodobe prezit a ziskat evolucni vyhodu, at uz v podobe zasob, vedeckeho poznani, nebo i kulturni evoluce.
    Tady se shodneme v rámci specializace, surplusu. Samotná efektivita je také sporná (viz Jevonsův paradox), ale záleží v jakém případě se o ni bavíme, avšak upřesním termín "růst" (protože růst může být spirituální, intelektuální, sociální aj.) na "ekonomický růst", který je takřka 1:1 spojený se spotřebou surovin a dalších zdrojů. Při 3% ročního růstu můžeme očekávat zdvojení spotřeby surovin a energie za ~24 let (viz exponenciální růst). Přebytek jsem jako takový nekritizoval, nicméně přebytek může existovat v absenci ekonomického růstu. Co bych kritizovat mohl je "overconsumption".

    The Limits to Growth

    A Synopsis: Limits to Growth: The 30-Year Update

    Global Resources Outlook 2024

    Overshoot: The Ecological Basis of Revolutionary Change (kniha)

    The Sixth Extinction: An Unnatural History (kniha)

    Prosperity without Growth: Foundations for the Economy of Tomorrow (kniha)

    The decoupling delusion: rethinking growth and sustainability
    Ted sice dochazime k tomu, ze existuji v konkretnim case limity (energeticke, materialove), ale to neznamena, ze jsme doted delali vse spatne. Naopak, pokud bychom to tak nedelali, dost mozna by tu lidstvo nebylo (doba ledova, valky, neurody,...)
    Nevím kam přesně míříš s "doba ledova, valky, neurody" - války a konflikty tu byly a jsou (a počtem narůstají), neúrody tu byly a jsou (a momentálně i přes intenzivní zemědělství narůstají) - a dovolím si tvrdit, že na ještě více nestabilní planetě šance obou pouze narůstá, nemyslíš?

    Conflict Trends: A Global Overview, 1946–2022

    Uppsala Conflict Data Program

    Alert 2023! Report on conflicts, human rights and peacebuilding

    Projections constructed using an ensemble of 21 climate model simulations suggest that climate change could reduce global crop yields by 3–12% by mid-century and 11–25% by century's end.

    Neřekl jsem, že jsme vše dělali špatně (i když mnohé ano). Téma bylo o industrializaci zemědělství a že nám pomohla předejít (krátkodobě) problémy s dostatkem jídla, ale ona industrializace přinesla i mnoho negativních důsledků, včetně degradace půdy, ztráty biodiverzity a znečištění životního prostředí a dalšího jež jsem zmínil níže, a moje další téze byla, že GMO není univerzálním řešením a nemůže kompenzovat všechny ekologické problémy spojené se současným zemědělstvím. Energetické a materiálové limity jsou celkem zásadní, ve světě poháněném onou energií a postaveném na oněch materiálech, ještě k tomu v nastavení, kdy se jimi plýtvá jako dnes.

    World Scientists' Warning to Humanity: A Second Notice

    LIVING PLANET REPORT 2022

    Global Assessment Report on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services

    The State of the Birds Report 2022

    Planetary boundaries (9 boundaries assessed, 6 crossed)

    More losers than winners: investigating Anthropocene defaunation through the diversity of population trends

    FAO warns 90 per cent of Earth’s topsoil at risk by 2050

    A World Without Soil: The Past, Present, and Precarious Future of the Earth Beneath Our Feet

    pokud se budem zabejvat jen idealnim stavem a jeho statutem quo, pak si muzem rovnou usetrit spoustu casu, protoze nic takovyho jako vesmirny equilibrium neexistuje
    Souhlasím s tím, že ideální stav není dosažitelný, ale to neznamená, že bychom neměli brát v úvahu ekologické limity a hledat udržitelnější alternativy.
    Tvrdis, ze statisticky kvalita zivota neni lepsi, jenze se k tomu daj krasne sledovat parametry jako je prumerny vek doziti, novorozenecka mortalita atd. Pro me sou tyhle parametry baseline. Jestli mas nejake jine, lepsi, nasdilej.
    Z hlediska statistiky může být průměrný věk dožití a novorozenecká mortalita jedním z ukazatelů kvality života, ale není to jediné měřítko, nicméně k tomu:

    Snížená mortalita dětí do 5 let je skvělý úspěch, proti tomu nic neříkám, a celkově je zrovna zdravotnictví/sanitace/.. něco co nekritizuji.

    Dále k průměrnému věku, ten byl historicky dost zkreslen právě novorozeneckou mortalitou, průměry, které nezapočítavají děti odhalují, že se lidé běžně dožívali relativně vysokého věku. Následně, za jakých podmínek se dnes lidé dožívají vysokého věku? Nutnost 24/7 péče, na přístrojích,.. také proto vidíme debaty na téma eutanázie, a celkově jsme jako společnost posedlí tím neumřít, ale přijde mi, že se přehlíží kvalita života, kterou se snažíme dohánět materiálně, neúspěšně.

    Old age isn’t a modern phenomenon – many people lived long enough to grow old in the olden days, too

    Dalšími měřítky, které nemůžeme ignorovat je kvalita životního prostředí, sociální rovnost a celková udržitelnost společnosti. Opět dodám důraz na životní prostředí, vyměnit biosféru a relativně stabilní planetu za století prosperity nezní jako dobrý obchod. Lidí s nedostatkem jídla/vody též přibývá.

    2024 Social Progress Index

    The Lancet Countdown on health and climate change

    The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2023

    Adaptation Gap Report 2023

    Global Risks Report 2024

    A Short History of Progress

    Jak jsem zmínil, na profilu mám řadu zdrojů. Mohu doporučit něco konkrétního máš-li konkrétní dotaz, ale bavíme se o několika tématech.
    Pokusil jsem se k popsaným tématům a tvrzením dodat nějaké zdroje.
    YMLADRIS
    YMLADRIS --- ---
    If Americans elect Biden, the United States could very likely reach the emissions targets outlined in the Paris Agreement. If Trump is elected, the country is likely to emit 50% more greenhouse gasses by 2030, a difference of more than a billion tons of emissions per year, according to projections released by Carbon Brief this week.

    ...

    Trump leased 2.4 million acres for oil and gas production. By comparison, Biden’s administration leased 324,000 acres in its first two years. In other words, Trump leased 7 times more land to oil and gas companies than Biden.

    When Biden took office, he killed the Keystone XL project and blocked drilling permits in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge.

    In his first term, Joe Biden has done more to address climate change than any President before him. The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) alone is expected to wipe out 21 billion tons of planet-warming pollution between now and 2050.

    "Four years ago, if Biden had promised to do everything that he’s done during his first term, most pundits would have laughed him out of the room. Even after winning the 2020 election, passing any climate policy seemed unlikely. The Senate was split 50-50 and Joe Manchin—a literal coal baron—was the swing vote.

    Yet, the last four years unfolded in completely unexpected ways.

    For decades, environmental advocates have tried to convince lawmakers to pass even the most marginal climate policies. And they’ve failed. It wasn’t until Biden took office that the logjam broke and the climate policies flowed. Since then, America has experienced remarkable progress."

    What Americans Need to Hear About Biden's Climate Record
    https://www.distilled.earth/p/what-americans-need-to-hear-about

    --

    skoda ze si zvoli trumpa
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    EU countries already hitting some of their sustainable energy targets for 2030 | Sustainable development goals | The Guardian
    https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2024/feb/28/eu-countries-already-hitting-some-of-their-sustainable-energy-targets-for-2030

    Several European countries hit some of their sustainable energy targets for 2030 a decade early, a study has found, but big gaps remain across the board.

    Progress on SDG 7 achieved by EU countries in relation to the target year 2030: A multidimensional indicator analysis using dynamic relative taxonomy | PLOS ONE
    https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0297856
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    YMLADRIS:
    ZAHRADKAR: ty zmeny jaou fakt masivni, jeste pred par lety ta trajektorie byla fakt na ceste worst-case scenarich… v poslednich let po masivnim tlaku (a imho fakt vcetne XR) se ta trajektorie lame. neni to asi tolik videt, peotoze vv mnoha ohledech ta zmena je pomala (a hlavne prichazi pozde), ale v tom delajmhorizontu je dramaticka a je tam

    Most people don’t realize how much progress we’ve made on climate change » Yale Climate Connections
    https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2023/11/most-people-dont-realize-how-much-progress-weve-made-on-climate-change/
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