O problematice novy generace modelu, ktery naznacujou, ze by klimaticka senzitivita ke zdvojnasobeni co2 mohla byt vyrazne vyssi... autori se domnivaj, ze je to spis chyba v modelech
The latest “CMIP6” generation of climate models includes a subset of “hot models” that point towards much greater warming than expected.
These models have high climate sensitivity, a measure of how much the planet warms in response to rising atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations.
Yet multiple lines of evidence based on observations and our understanding of planetary physics suggest we can confidently narrow the range of climate sensitivity and, crucially, give less weight to high-end estimates.
The recent sixth assessment report (AR6) from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reconciled these findings with the idea of “assessed global warming” – warming projections that combine model results with observational constraints.
While giving a more realistic picture of future warming, this approach has created a problem for scientists wishing to study climate impacts and adaptation, particularly at local or regional scales, based on daily or monthly extremes, or on non-temperature variables such as rainfall.
In a new comment in Nature, we propose a set of simple approaches to this problem so that studies on climate impacts and adaptation can avoid giving too much weight to “hot models”.
Guest post: How climate scientists should handle ‘hot models’ - Carbon Brief https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-how-climate-scientists-should-handle-hot-models