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    TUHOKlimaticka zmena / Thank you so much for ruining my day
    DZODZO
    DZODZO --- ---
    toto uz tu mozno bolo, neviem, ja mam alzheimera tak pre mna je kazdy den vzdy ako novy :)

    SHEFIK
    SHEFIK --- ---
    #doomed

    Physicists predict Earth will become a chaotic world, with dire consequences | Live Science
    https://www.livescience.com/humanity-turns-earth-chaotic-climate-system

    Humans aren't just making Earth warmer, they are making the climate chaotic, a stark new study suggests.

    If the Earth System gets into the region of chaotic behavior, we will lose all hope of somehow fixing the problem."

    ...

    But in the worst cases, the researchers found that Earth's climate leads to chaos. True, mathematical chaos. In a chaotic system, there is no equilibrium and no repeatable patterns. A chaotic climate would have seasons that change wildly from decade to decade (or even year to year). Some years would experience sudden flashes of extreme weather, while others would be completely quiet. Even the average Earth temperature may fluctuate wildly, swinging from cooler to hotter periods in relatively short periods of time. It would become utterly impossible to determine in what direction Earth's climate is headed.

    Most concerning, the researchers found that above a certain critical threshold temperature for Earth's atmosphere, a feedback cycle can kick in where a chaotic result would become unavoidable. There are some signs that we may have already passed that tipping point, but it's not too late to avert climate disaster.
    DZODZO
    DZODZO --- ---
    zaujimave ze si vybral zrovna RWE, mozno si spocital, ze u nejakeho Gazpromu by asi neuspel :)

    Rolník z Peru žaluje RWE kvůli tání ledovců - Novinky.cz
    https://www.novinky.cz/koktejl/clanek/rolnik-z-peru-zaluje-rwe-kvuli-tani-ledovcu-40398412
    SHEFIK
    SHEFIK --- ---
    #notEasy #learningCurve

    Jak zmerit, jestli je firma environmentalne friendly a zaslouzi si lepsi ESG rating pro akcionare/cerpani dotaci? Pocet zamestnancu vs emise? Nebo dle mnozstvi vyrobku vs. emise...? Dle srovnani s konkurencinimi substituty? Dle interniho deklarovaneho planu na snizeni emisi? Dle standardizovanych tabulek / deklarovane byrokraticke normy? Dle zdroje odberu jejich ebergetickych vstupu?

    SEC Wants To Prevent ESG Funds From Greenwashing Following Tesla's Removal From The S&P 500 ESG Index - CleanTechnica
    https://cleantechnica.com/2022/05/27/sec-wants-to-prevent-esg-funds-from-greenwashing-following-teslas-removal-from-the-sp-500-esg-index/

    The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) wants to prevent ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) funds from greenwashing. The SEC published a fact sheet with amendments calling for funds to show proof of their claims and to disclose how they choose companies and vote at annual meetings.
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    A recent article on Nature claims the start of the "Pandemicene" caused by climate change.

    2022 Climate change increases cross-species viral transmission risk
    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-04788-w

    At least 10,000 virus species have the capacity to infect humans, but at present, the vast majority are circulating silently in wild mammals1,2. However, climate and land use change will produce novel opportunities for viral sharing among previously geographically-isolated species of wildlife3,4. In some cases, this will facilitate zoonotic spillover—a mechanistic link between global environmental change and disease emergence. Here, we simulate potential hotspots of future viral sharing, using a phylogeographic model of the mammal-virus network, and projections of geographic range shifts for 3,139 mammal species under climate change and land use scenarios for the year 2070. We predict that species will aggregate in new combinations at high elevations, in biodiversity hotspots, and in areas of high human population density in Asia and Africa, driving the novel cross-species transmission of their viruses an estimated 4,000 times. Because of their unique dispersal capacity, bats account for the majority of novel viral sharing, and are likely to share viruses along evolutionary pathways that will facilitate future emergence in humans. Surprisingly, we find that this ecological transition may already be underway, and holding warming under 2 °C within the century will not reduce future viral sharing. Our findings highlight an urgent need to pair viral surveillance and discovery efforts with biodiversity surveys tracking species’ range shifts, especially in tropical regions that harbor the most zoonoses and are experiencing rapid warming.


    ugo bardi to hejtuje:

    But how can climate change favor pathogen diffusion? Well, according to the authors, it is because it will favor cross-species transmission. It is called zoonotic spillover.
    Ah... yes. But how do you know that climate change will favor interspecies interaction?
    Well, because, oh.... we assume that species will interact more with each other.
    But do you have any proof of that?
    Not really, but we have a model.
    SHEFIK
    SHEFIK --- ---
    #legalWars #hope

    ...personally liable, ouch. No more dream jobs :)

    A Year After the Shell Ruling: Big Victories & Next Steps for Climate Litigation - CleanTechnica
    https://cleantechnica.com/2022/05/27/a-year-after-the-shell-ruling-big-victories-next-steps-for-climate-litigation/

    In March, a first-of-its-kind case was announced against Shell’s board of directors. The suit seeks to hold them personally liable for failing to adopt and implement a climate strategy that aligns with the Paris agreement. Failure to lead an effective transition, the suit argues, is a breach of board duties under the UK Companies Act. This suit points back to the earlier legal win against Shell in the Netherlands. That ruling ordered Shell to address emissions along the full value chain, including pollution from burning Shell products. Now, a year later, Shell’s board has tried to narrow its responsibility to address only the emissions from Shell’s production and manufacturing operations.
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    SHEFIK: ad "neda"

    presto je tu finalni mnozstvi lidi, kteri jsou kazdy rok v kontrolnich/rozhodujicich funkcich pro ekosystem a rozhodujou, co se bude delat, na zaklade svych internich modelu, protoze zeme se toci a zivot jde dal ,)

    me prijde vtipny a priznacny, ze studie se diva na nejaky parametry toho systemu managementu, ale jakoby bere toho, kdo dela ten management jako sekundarniho, pricemz je to naopak - coz je to primarni, co zohlednuje holistic management (celek systemu - rozhodujici akteri a proces jejich rozhodovani) ... pricemz tyhle studie se zabyvaj nejakou partikularni praktikou, zde holisticky planovani pastvy. sam savory treba rika, ze tyhle spory jsou nesmysl, protoze neresej to jadro, kterym je ta systemicka regulace (ktera zahrnuje neuplnost poznani, informaci, atd)
    SHEFIK
    SHEFIK --- ---
    TADEAS: jinymi slovy clovek je nutnou soucasti modelovaneho systemu, pac generuje nejen vstupy a jejich mnozstvi (co2 atd), ale definuje i to jak system funguje / jak s temito vstupy system dokaze operovat (pastva, kaceni pralesu,...).

    Modely pro vedu a pro management se budou lisit jen parametry. Veda se ale vzdycky bude snazit model zjednodusovat jen na vyznamny promenny. Jenze my nevime vyznamny promenny, protoze z prikladu pastvina-bylozravec-clovek, v sobe zahrnuje i interakci s mykorhizou/transportem zivin, kterej je zas zavislej na pocasi a i na managementu ekosystemu v prubehu casu.

    Tohle se proste komplexne imho neda, je tam moc nahodnejch promennejch, od lidskyho random chovani/zasahu, pres pocasi, k rozmnozeni plisni uvnitr pudy, ktera je v ruznejch vrstvach a ruznym case jinak strukturovana, jinak vlhka, jinde nakadino od bylozravcu...

    Proto je jednodusi jak rikas zacit sledovat praktiky a na nich stavet (zjednodusujici) studie a hledat ktery ty parametry sou statisticky vyznamny. Pak se da oddelene s jistotou rict, ze neco funguje ceteris paribus.

    #uvaha
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    SHEFIK: no ja v tom vidim ten aspekt cloveka-hyperpredatora, cili ze clovek [operujici v urcitym mindsetu/paradigmatu/teorii-praxi] je regulatorem ekosystemu a napr. pastva bylozravcu, podobne jako vyuzivani fosilni energii pohanenejch stroju nebo regulace klimatu vypoustenim sklenikovejch plynu jsou urcity klicovy paky na ten system. ... a ze ten 'mindset' toho klicovyho regulatora je zasadni aspekt toho systemu a je to zasadni soucast toho, co se vubec srovnava [tzn. v zasade je prilis reduktivni se divat na 'praktiky pastvy' resp. regulace bylozravcu v otevrenem ekosystemu bez zavislosti na ostatnim] ...
    a klicovy je i to, zda modelujeme pro modelovani, nebo zda modelujeme pro management, protoze model pro management bude nutne komplexnejsi [bude zahrnovat vsechny elementy] nez model pro model [veda] - protoze ten vedeckej model si muze dovolit nebejt komplexni ... i kdyz je to trochu bizar, protoze s dnesnima vypocetnima moznostma bych cekal, ze budeme schopni modelovat tuhle miru komplexity bez vetsich problemu [napr. interakci pastvina-bylozravec-clovek] ... spis je to momentalni nedostatek, ze tam ta 'veda' nedosla v dostatecny preciznosti. to jak tam dojde je, ze sleduje praktiky a potreby tech manazeru tech danejch ekosystemu...
    SHEFIK
    SHEFIK --- ---
    TADEAS: lip bych to nerek. A protoze vesmir v dusledku nenamodelujes, pac kazdej model je urcity zjednoduseni komplexity, muzeme tak akorat delat high-level odhady pro statisticky vyznamny parametry.

    ...ktery prestavaj platit pri dosazeni jakohokoliv tipping pointu daneho systemu :) ...pro ktery navic ani nemame historicke data a nevime jak se bude system chovat dal a jestli se vyznamnost parametru nezmeni.

    Jinak systemova teorie rika, ze system (resp. model systemu) je jakakoliv definovana skupina parametru, kterou chceme sledovat. Vstupy a vystupy vicemene redukujeme na interakci se systemem, ale ne jako vlastni system podlehajici zmenam.

    ...

    Zahrnout vse do systemu realnyho sveta, kde vse interaguje se vsim je vicemene zacarovanej kruh (aktualne v case i nespocitatelnej) a klima se mezitim odporouci. Je proste nutna mira nejakeho zjednoduseni.

    To co je nejprinosnejsi, je nezanaset do zjednodusenejch modelu parametry, ktery nejsou dulezity/relevantni (alespon ne v danej moment/skale/prostoru) nebo z pohledu logiky veci irelevantni (Nordhaus - vztah HDPxTeplota). Na tehle jednoduchejch modelech uz se da pak iterativne stavet a ucit se je komponovat do nejakyho holistickyho celku i presto, ze to nebude perfektni ekvilibrium, ale konstantne suboptimum. Nicmene i priroda jede konstante v suboptimech, lokalne (prostorove i casove) dokonce i v extremech a i tak umoznuje/umoznila dlouhodobe podminky zivota na zemi.
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    TADEAS: jinak imho jsme zatim nedospeli k dostatecne obecnymu ramci pro tyhle studie samotny - pak to konci vyrokama jako 'social context rather than the merits of any one particular management regime', ze vlastne nelze urcit, 'cim to je', situace je prilis fluidni, atp :)

    ... coz je vysledek prilis reduktivniho, malo komplexsniho pohledu. museli by, a to strasne nechtej, asi, prijmout tu integritu tech socialnich, financnich, biologickejch, klimatickejch procesu - a mit metriky a analyticky nastroje pro vsechny z nich, protoze svete div se, fakt nejsou oddelitelny. takze nejaky konstatovani o nejasnosti, socialnim kontextu, atp. jsou vyjadrenim limitu toho jak tu problematiku vubec zkoumame.

    zakladni 'objekt zkoumani' je 'system', sestavajici se ze svejch lidskejch socialnich, financnich, energeticko-materialovejch aspektu, z biologickejch a klimatickejch aspektu. pro analyzu toho, kdo/kteri managuji system je potreba identifikovat, v jakem operuji paradigmatu, tj. identifikovat jejich pracovni teorii a jeji koncepty - ktere se vztauji ke vsem aspektum toho systemu. potom vzit ty nejlepsi metriky co mame ze sve vlastni teorie celeho systemu [teorie paradigmatů managementu, teorie ekosystemu (vc. pudy), teorie klimatu] a mapovat dusledky tech ruznych managementů na ostatni prvky systemu.



    'There is an important difference between arguing that good adaptive management can improve soil quality and increase soil organic matter – and concluding that it offers the solution to our climate crisis.'

    rika se, ze ten problem tkvi prave v tom -managementu- ... konkretni techniky a praktiky [tj. napr. 'adaptive grazing', ne 'management', jak chybne pisou] jsou podrazene tomu managementu, jehoz zasadni komponent je praktika toho, jakym zpusobem si system nastavuje sve seberegulacni procesy
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    SHEFIK: ja fakt nevim. jedna z veci, u kterejch se fakt snazim proniknout do hloubky je interakce pudy, bylozravcu a lidi ...

    ten text toho prehledu je dobrej, ale

    'overgrazing – defined here as grazing at stocking densities higher than the land can support'

    a

    'Where soils are over-grazed, reducing the grazing pressure – including by removing the animals altogether if necessary until the vegetation recovers – can help'

    prekonana definice/teorie - 'overgrazing' nesouvisi s pocty zvirat, ale casem

    ad 'here defined' - zajimavy, ze to definujou, misto aby to definovali opet jako jeden specifickej pristup, resp. koncept prislusici nejaky [v dusledcich degenerativni] teorii pastvy - ie kde je studie srovnavajici dusledky aplikace techle teorii?



    ad 'The Savory Institute hides the very detailed description of the specific practices involved behind a paywall' - lol, muzou si to koupit na amazonu - prirucka s explicitnima popisama vseho a pracovni sesity k tomu :D je to min za paywallem nez kazdej druhej vedeckej clanek, kterejma se to tam hemzi

    ....

    ramcove souhlas:

    it is clear is that the extremely ambitious claims its proponents make are dangerously misleading. The Institute claims that widespread application of its methods would lead to quite massive removals of carbon from the atmosphere – some 500 billion tonnes over 40 years. This would be enough, as it says,125,126,127 to ‘reverse climate change’ since about 555 billion tonnes carbon (or 2035 tonnes CO2) have been released into the atmosphere since the industrial revolution. The Nordborg review128dismantles this claim extremely effectively and its conclusions are worth summarising here. First, Nordborg points out that the sequestration rate of 2.5 t C/ha/yr is substantially higher than all other peer-reviewed estimates (see Section 3.5 below). Second, the amount of grassland to which this is applied, 5 billion hectares, is considerably greater than most estimates of the area of grasslands that can be defined even loosely as grazing lands – Nordborg cites the estimate provided in the IPCC’s 2000 report on land use change, of 3.5 billion hectares.129,130 Third, it is vanishingly unlikely that this constant high sequestration rate could be maintained for 40 years since the rate of accrual diminishes over time as soils approach carbon equilibrium. Finally, Savory does not take into account the significant increases in methane and nitrous oxide that would result from higher livestock numbers.In many ways, the regenerative approach and its variants can also be seen as a socialmovement, appealing to people who are dissatisfied with conventional practices. Those attracted are often unusually motivated by considerations that go beyond the monetary, and tend to embrace the nuanced approach that is required. Emphasis is placed on community support, knowledge exchange, peer to peer learning and the replacement of inputs with knowledge.131,132,133,134 While these motivations are clearly laudable, their effectiveness serves to underline the importance of the social context ather than the merits of any one particular management regime. Regenerative grazing, applied well and by motivated farmers, could well benefit soils, build organic carbon matter and as such perhaps help sequester some carbon. However the overall gains are likely to be modest, are not exclusive to rotational practices, and will be time limited – and the problem of the other greenhouse gases, methane and nitrous oxide – do not go away. There is an important difference between arguing that good adaptive management can improve soil quality and increase soil organic matter – and concluding that it offers the solution to our climate crisis.
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    TUHO: asi nemam motivaci to cist momentalne, ta studie co odkazuje viz dole shefik je zajimava, tu jsem se jal studovat :) az udelam zas par kolecek a na neco prijdu, dam report .)

    ja bych si hrozne pral, aby tyhle lidi meli k dispozici skutecnej produkcni ekosystme a byli nuceny delat ty kratkodoby a dlouhodoby management rozhodnuti, aby fakt vstoupili do hry :)
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    TADEAS:
    "unless I've missed something" - neco si nasel? Ja nemam moc silu prochazet ty zdroje, ktery tam daval. Ale Mobiot obvykle dela svoje domaci ukoly vetsinou docela poctive.
    SHEFIK
    SHEFIK --- ---
    TADEAS: ted si jejsem jistej, ty s nim souhlasis?

    Imho je nejpodstatnejsi tohle


    ix. Claims about carbon storage in pasture have been hugely exaggerated and tend to rely on junk science. This study found no case of pasture absorbing more than 60% of the greenhouse gases the livestock produce: the system doesn’t even wash its own face.
    https://t.co/vqL2Bl8IiM


    Ale nic z toho co rika porad nevylucuje, ze dobytek neni soucasti celkovyho mixu reseni. Pro me je zasadni co sem videl v Carbon cowboys, kdy dobytek zabranuje desertifikaci (cimz udrzuje biodiverzitu/vodu v krajine) a pri nejakym rozumnym managementu ty hranice 'pouste' muze i posunovat
    KEB
    KEB --- ---
    Spotify
    https://open.spotify.com/show/1PLGK5tF4WiPUq83yIQQVI?si=qVQQbT7_TKmNgOXFk8K0Dw

    Obnovitelne.cz má podcast, ještě jsem neslyšel, ale třeba někoho zaujme
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    Kdybyste meli chvili, poprosil bych o vyplneni kratkeho dotazniku o klikma dezinformacich. DIk

    O čem se málo mluví v klimatických dezinformacích
    https://docs.google.com/forms/d/1jo9nUjRrbV00IOkwz7Rm7STB94vMXlghyPQw9dc70rE/edit
    PER2
    PER2 --- ---
    to nemuzeme dopustit!

    People in US and UK face huge financial hit if fossil fuels lose value, study shows | Fossil fuels | The Guardian
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/may/26/people-in-us-and-uk-face-huge-financial-hit-if-fossil-fuels-lose-value-study-shows
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    300 days of sandstorms a year by 2050

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