In Central Europe, river flooding has been recently recognized as a major hazard, in
particular after the 1997 Odra /Oder flood, the 2001 Vistula flood, and the most destructive
2002 deluge on the Labe/Elbe.

Having observed that flood risk and vulnerability are likely to have grown in many areas,
one is curious to understand the reasons for growth. These can be sought in socio-economic
domain (humans encroaching into floodplain areas), terrestrial systems
(land-cover changes – urbanization, deforestation, reduction of wetlands, river regulation),
and climate system.
The atmospheric capacity to absorb moisture, its potential water content, and thus
potential for intense precipitation, are likely to increase in a warmer climate.

General acceleration of hydrological cycle in the warming world, observed already to
some extent and projected in the future to a larger extent, leads to the con-
clusion that intense summer precipitation events could be on the rise.

The Elbe flood of August 2002 was caused by extreme rainfall in a large area. The associated
circulation pattern was rather typical of previous flood events both in recent years and in
the more distant past.

The model simulations consid ered suggest that their frequency might increase in the future.

According to Fricke and Kaminski (2001) an increase of days with extreme precipitation can
already be observed in the long station time-series of the Hohenpeissenberg Observatory
in southern Germany.

This seems to agree with the trends produced in simulations of anthropogenic climate change.