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    TUHOKlimaticka zmena / If the fracturing of our once stable climate doesn’t terrify you, then you don’t fully understand it


    "Given the sheer enormity of climate change, it’s okay to be depressed, to grieve. But please, don’t stay there too long. Join me in pure, unadulterated, righteous anger."


    "I don’t want your hope. I don’t want you to be hopeful. I want you to panic. I want you to feel the fear I feel every day. And then I want you to act. Once you start to act, the hope is everywhere."

    "Our best scientists tell us insistently that a calamity is unfolding, that the life-support systems of the Earth are being damaged in ways that threaten our survival. Yet in the face of these facts we carry on as usual."

    “We’ve got to stop burning fossil fuels. So many aspects of life depend on fossil fuels, except for music and love and education and happiness. These things, which hardly use fossil fuels, are what we must focus on.”

    A nejde o to, že na to nemáme dostatečné technologie, ty by na řešení použít šly, ale chybí nám vůle a představivost je využít. Zůstáváme při zemi, přemýšlíme až moc rezervovaně. Technologický pokrok to sám o sobě nevyřeší. Problém jsme my, ne technologické nástroje.

    Rostouci hladiny oceanu, zmena atmosferickeho proudeni, zmeny v distribuci srazek a sucha. Zmeny karbonoveho, fosforoveho a dusikoveho cyklu, okyselovani oceanu. Jake jsou bezpecnostni rizika a jake potencialni klady dramatickych zmen fungovani zemskeho systemu?
    Ale take jak funguji masove dezinformacni kampane ropneho prumyslu a boj o verejne mineni na prahu noveho klimatickeho rezimu post-holocenu.
    rozbalit záhlaví
    SHEFIK
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    Related

    1 in 5 new car sales globally were EVs in 2023, and that's curbed oil demand – IEA
    https://electrek.co/2024/03/02/1-in-5-new-car-sales-globally-in-were-evs-in-2023-oil-demand-iea/

    The bad news is that energy-related emissions rose in 2023. But the good news is that continued expansion of clean energy technologies meant that global energy-related emissions rose less strongly than in 2022, even as total energy demand growth accelerated.

    Emissions increased by 410 million tonnes, or 1.1%, in 2023 – compared with a rise of 490 million tonnes the year before – taking them to a record level of 37.4 billion tonnes.

    An exceptional shortfall in hydropower due to extreme droughts in the US, China, and several other economies resulted in over 40% of the rise in emissions in 2023 as countries turned largely to fossil fuels to plug the gap. Had it not been for the unusually low hydropower output, global emissions from electricity generation would have declined in 2023, making the overall rise in energy-related emissions significantly smaller.

    ...

    Advanced economies saw a record fall in their emissions in 2023 even as their GDP grew. Their emissions dropped to a 50-year low while coal demand fell back to levels not seen since the early 1900s.
    TADEAS
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    Risotto crisis: the fight to save Italy’s beloved dish from extinction | Rice | The Guardian
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/feb/29/risotto-crisis-the-fight-to-save-italys-beloved-dish-from-extinction-aoe


    In 2022, the worst drought in 200 years hit the Po, Italy’s longest river. The waterway forms the lifeblood of a complex web of canals built between the Middle Ages and the 1800s, which serve as the paddy fields’ main source of irrigation. That year, Italy lost 26,000 hectares (64,000 acres) of rice fields, according to Ente Nazionale Risi, the national rice authority, and rice production dropped by more than 30%. Last year, the drought persisted and the crop from another 7,500 hectares of rice fields was lost.

    Today, rice farmers struggling to recover from the impact of the drought face an uncertain future. “The higher the temperatures, the more frequent and intense these extreme events will be,” says Marta Galvagno, a biometeorologist at the Environmental Protection Agency of Aosta Valley.

    Over the past two years, Ferraris, like other farmers in the area, has tried to diversify his crops to reduce the risks brought by the climate crisis. He has reduced the acreage dedicated to paddies and started to grow crops such as maize, that require less water.

    “The climate is changing and I am afraid there will be other droughts,” says Ferraris, whose farm lost about €150,000 [£129,000] in 2022. Rice remains his biggest crop, however. Recently, he has started monitoring snowfalls in the Alps and checking the water levels in Lake Maggiore every day. “It’s hard to sleep at night,” he says.

    Ferraris is particularly worried about the production of carnaroli classico, a refined rice variety. Thanks to its ability to resist high cooking temperatures and absorb flavours, carnaroli is considered the “king of risotto”, but it is also extremely delicate and vulnerable to changes in the climate.
    NJAL
    NJAL --- ---
    Bez dvou mesicu pred 20 lety, happy doomsaying 2024!

    Climate change over the next 20 years could result in a global catastrophe costing millions of lives in wars and natural disasters..

    A secret report, suppressed by US defence chiefs and obtained by The Observer, warns that major European cities will be sunk beneath rising seas as Britain is plunged into a ‘Siberian’ climate by 2020. Nuclear conflict, mega-droughts, famine and widespread rioting will erupt across the world.


    Now the Pentagon tells Bush: climate change will destroy us | Environment | The Guardian
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2004/feb/22/usnews.theobserver
    SHEFIK
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    SHEFIK: pro lenochy

    Buying or selling bitcoin uses 16,000 litres of clean water for every single transaction, which could exacerbate existing droughts around the world. While the energy consumption and carbon emissions produced by bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have been well studied, this is the first assessment of its water use and wider environmental impact.
    SHEFIK
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    Evoluce je neuveritelna. Na druhou stranu, z pohledu evolucniho biologa takovej objev uz ani nemuze bejt prekvapenim :)

    A Revelation About Trees Is Messing With Climate Calculations | WIRED
    https://www.wired.com/story/a-revelation-about-trees-is-messing-with-climate-calculations/

    In a paper published this month in Science Advances, Dada’s team establishes a new heavy hitter in cloud creation: a kind of chemical released by trees. Trees emit natural volatiles like isoprene and monoterpenes, which can spark cloud-forming chemical reactions. Dada’s new work focuses on an overlooked class of less abundant volatiles called sesquiterpenes, which smell woody, earthy, citrusy, or spicy, depending on the molecule and type of plant or microbe that emits them.

    The team shows that sesquiterpenes are more effective than expected for seeding clouds. A mere 1-to-50 ratio of sesquiterpene to other volatiles doubled cloud formation.
    ...
    This research could help refine estimates of what the atmosphere was like before industrialization. Maybe we’ve been undercounting the world’s aerosol population by overlooking a large portion of those that come from trees. If so, climate models will need retooling.
    ...
    Lab tools have only recently become sensitive enough to understand which ones contribute the most.
    ..
    But scientists have trouble simulating just how many aerosols should be accounted for in models. “It’s been a long-standing problem,” Fan says. “A lot of climate models overestimate anthropogenic aerosol forcing.” Perhaps that is because they are underestimating the prevalence of natural aerosols—from microbes, plants, and trees—before the industrial revolution. “Maybe what we're using as our reference point may actually not be as low-aerosol as we thought,” agrees Zuidema.
    ....
    For example, heat stress, extreme weather, and droughts cause plants to release more biogenic volatiles—which seed more clouds. Deforestation and heat stress are pushing treelines to migrate to higher altitudes and latitudes. That affects where clouds form.

    “It’s a feedback loop,” Dada says. “The climate is affecting the cloud formation, and the clouds are affecting the climate.”
    TUHO
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    TUHO: And while Western academics in their ivory towers disagree over whether Sahel conflicts are due to climate change, we on the ground know the facts.

    In two decades, Niger has suffered nine droughts and five floods, destroying its rural heartlands. Water shortages trigger a food crisis every four years. As a recent International Monetary Fund study revealed, decades of climate change in Niger are behind food shocks driving devastating levels of rural poverty.
    TADEAS
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    Devastating floods in Italy claim lives and leave thousands homeless | Italy | The Guardian
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/17/italy-storms-people-dead-thousands-evacuated-emlia-romagna

    Before the latest floods, Emilia-Romagna and other areas of northern Italy were blighted by a drought that dried out land, reducing its capacity to absorb water

    ...

    Wars, famines, droughts, floods
    Hurricanes, heat waves, murders, thugs
    Chaos, refugees, stress, disease
    Extinction, disaster, I-P-C-C

    TADEAS:
    TADEAS
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    https://twitter.com/Windycom/status/1654613172093943815?s=19
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    TADEAS:

    Why we need a new economics of water as a common good
    https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-00800-z

    Today, the sector concentrates on flows of ‘blue’ fresh water — liquid that runs off the land and is stored in rivers, lakes, reservoirs and underground aquifers. Utilities capture and extract this water locally for drinking and sanitation, agricultural irrigation and industry. They assume it will be continually replenished, naturally, within historical ranges. In many places, that premise already no longer holds.

    Each 1 °C of global warming increases global mean precipitation by 1–3%, and it could rise by up to 12% by the end of the century compared with the period 1995–20141. The impacts will be felt unevenly, with the frequency and severity of both floods and droughts rising. Deforestation, land degradation and infrastructure development are also altering precipitation patterns and affecting where water comes from and ends up2. Excessive extraction for irrigation and industry is aggravating water shortages in river basins, from the Colorado in the United States and the Yangtze in China to the Murray–Darling in Australia.

    To meet these growing challenges, water must be recast as a global common good. That means states establishing an obligation under international law to protect the global water cycle for all people and generations, and acknowledging that actions in one place have impacts in another — for instance, that deforestation in Brazil affects rainfall in Peru. It means assessing the role and economic value of not just blue fresh water, but also ‘green’ water that is held in the air, biomass and soils. And it means governments and the private sectors reformulating their roles and responsibilities, to develop objectives, policies and funds that can reshape markets and better manage global water supplies.
    TADEAS
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    Water has to become a common good – two new reports show — Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
    https://www.pik-potsdam.de/en/news/latest-news/water-has-to-become-a-common-good-2013-two-new-reports-show

    „We are now pushing the global water cycle out of balance, undermining the source of all freshwater – precipitation – upon which societies are completely dependent on,” Johan Rockström explains.

    The 32-pages GCEW report titled Turning the Tide: A Call to Collective Action, marks the first time the global water system has been scrutinized comprehensively as well as its value to countries — and the risks to their prosperity if water is neglected.

    The majority of countries depend on the evaporation of water from neighboring countries for about half of their water supply. This "green" water is held in soils and transpired from forests and other ecosystems. Countries are not only interconnected by transboundary blue water flows but also through green water, i.e., atmospheric green water flows of water vapor, flows which extend far beyond traditional watershed boundaries.

    Water is not just a casualty but also a driver of the climate crisis. Extreme water events cause an immediate loss of carbon uptake in nature. Droughts lead to fires and massive loss of biomass, carbon, and biodiversity. The loss of wetlands is depleting the planet's greatest carbon store, while the drop in soil moisture is reducing the terrestrial and forest ecosystem's ability to sequester carbon.


    Turning the Tide
    https://turningthetide.watercommission.org/
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    Klimatologie na MUNI
    Česká zemědělská produkce zažila za posledních 2 000 let výrazné extrémy, které zahrnují období, pro něž neexistuje analogie ani v současnosti. To je hlavní závěr článku od Maxe Torbensona, který s týmem dalších odborníků rekonstruoval hydroklimatické podmínky vegetačního období na J ČR a SV Rakouska na základě izotopů uhlíku a kyslíku v letokruzích stromů.
    Potvrdil mj. výraznou suchou periodu v rámci středověké klimatické anomálie (920-1000) i na poč. 16. stol., jakož i vlhká období v průběhu 3., 5. a 7. stol. Dlouhodobě pak směřuje náš region k současným teplejším a sušším podmínkám.

    Central European agroclimate over the past 2,000 years
    Central Europe has experienced a sequence of unprecedented summer droughts since 2015, which had considerable effects on the functioning and productivity of natural and agricultural systems. Placing these recent extremes in a long-term context of natural climate variability is, however, constrained by the limited length of observational records. Here, we use tree-ring stable oxygen and carbon isotopes to develop annually resolved reconstructions of growing season temperature and summer moisture variability for central Europe during the past 2,000 years. Both records are independently interpolated across the southern Czech Republic and northeastern Austria to produce explicit estimates of the optimum agroclimatic zones, based on modern references of climatic forcing. Historical documentation of agricultural productivity and climate variability since 1090 CE provides strong quantitative verification of our new reconstructions. Our isotope records not only contain clear expressions of the Medieval (920-1000 CE) and Renaissance (early 16th century) droughts, but also the relative influence of temperature and moisture on hydroclimatic conditions during the first millennium (including previously reported pluvials during the early 3rd, 5th, and 7th centuries CE). We conclude, Czech agricultural production has experienced significant extremes over the past 2,000 years, which includes periods for which there are no modern analogues.

    Central European agroclimate over the past 2,000 years in: Journal of Climate - Ahead of print
    https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/aop/JCLI-D-22-0831.1/JCLI-D-22-0831.1.xml
    TUHO
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    The UK can build a reliable, secure and cost-effective electricity system that is decarbonised by 2035, says the government’s advisory Climate Change Committee (CCC).
    The CCC’s new report is based on new hour-by-hour modelling of the country’s electricity system out to 2035, which includes stress-tests of how it could ride out extended “wind droughts”.
    In effect, the report is a 131-page answer to the question often posed by those sceptical of climate action: “But what about when the wind does not blow and the sun does not shine?”

    CCC: Here’s how the UK can get reliable zero-carbon electricity by 2035 - Carbon Brief
    https://www.carbonbrief.org/ccc-heres-how-the-uk-can-get-reliable-zero-carbon-electricity-by-2035/
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    Abrupt Climate Change
    Richard B. Alley
    Winter temperatures plummeting six degrees Celsius and sudden droughts scorching farmland around the globe are not just the stuff of scary movies. Such striking climate jumps have happened before—sometimes within a matter of years

    Sci-Hub | Abrupt Climate Change. Scientific American, 291(5), 62–69 | 10.1038/scientificamerican1104-62
    https://sci-hub.se/10.1038/scientificamerican1104-62

    TADEAS
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    ‘I am an optimistic person’: the scientist who studies climate catastrophes | Climate crisis | The Guardian
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/dec/29/i-am-an-optimistic-person-the-scientist-who-studies-climate-catastrophes

    “He said to me: ‘Look, we have this large ensemble of climate models here, do something with it.’

    “So I was handed this huge gathering of data, and what that allows you to do is build statistics about rare and extreme events.”

    Otto was armed with the information which would lead her a few years later, with her late colleague Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, to create the world’s first climate attribution unit to examine to what extent human driven climate change is responsible for extreme heatwaves, droughts and floods.

    The journey from the creation of the World Weather Attribution unit to its current iteration, began with a paper Otto and Oldenborgh wrote on a heatwave in Russia in 2010. It was a classical academic paper, peer reviewed and published long after the event.

    But when Heidi Cullen, one time chief scientist at the NGO Climate Central, suggested the work would be more powerful if it could be carried out faster, it was a breakthrough moment. “There was no reason we shouldn’t be able to do it faster,” said Otto. “We had the methodology that in principle doesn’t take a huge amount of time technically to run, so we could do it.”

    Otto’s conclusions now come at speed, but are still written within the structure of scientific rigour and the available evidence. A great part of the work is communicating to the wider public and politicians the dangers of extreme weather and the message, most crucially, that it is being created by us.

    ...

    . “One of the biggest scientific surprises for me this year was the floods in Nigeria because there was such a huge climate change impact,” said Otto. “They were made 80 times more likely as a result of climate change. That makes me think: ‘Oh wow, there is really a lot that we don’t understand in Africa’.”
    TADEAS
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    https://twitter.com/jrockstrom/status/1584811163329523712?s=19
    MARSHUS
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    https://abcnews.go.com/US/triple-dip-la-nia-meteorologists-predict-coming/story

    La Niña's global effect

    La Niña occurrences have a devastating global impact because of its effect on weather and climate, Richard Seager, Ph.D., a research professor at Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, told ABC News.

    The weather has caused droughts in North and South America and equatorial eastern Africa. La Niña is also linked to floods in Asia, such as the devastating floods Pakistan has endured since June, Seager said.

    NOAA forecasts that the expected La Niña winter season, which is from December 2022 to February 2023, in the U.S. won't be atypical, as the northern Plains, Rockies and Pacific Northwest will also experience cooler temperatures; the South will be hotter than normal and the East Coast may be warmer than it usually is during that time of the year, according to L'Heureux.
    TADEAS
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    The World’s Rivers, Canals and Reservoirs Are Turning to Dust
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2022-08-26/why-are-rivers-drying-up-climate-change-turns-waterways-into-dust

    Waterways have dried to a trickle thanks to droughts and heat waves that owe their origins to climate change.
    SHEFIK
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    Z jineho soudku. #droughts uz bylo dost.

    Pojdme na #floods za posledni tyden

    Cz
    Velká voda na Plzeňsku. Meteorologové na Klabavě vyhlásili stav ohrožení - Aktuálně.cz
    https://zpravy.aktualne.cz/domaci/na-plzensku-a-rokycansku-vyhlasil-chmu-extremni-nebezpeci-po/r~1adb42f0208111edba63ac1f6b220ee8/?

    Pakistan - 700 mrtvych, 1.5mil affected
    Pakistan – Monsoon Rains and Flooding Leave Almost 700 Dead, Thousands Displaced – FloodList
    https://floodlist.com/asia/pakistan-monsoon-floods-august-2022

    Australie - state of emergency
    https://www.bbc.com/weather/features/62577142

    Uk - almost twice the monthly average rainfall in a three-hour period.
    In pictures: Flooding across UK this week after heavy rain - BBC News
    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-62587610

    Vychodni indie temer 500.000 affected - 215 mm of rain fell in Ersama in Jagatsinghpur District in 24 hours to 14 August. According to the Odisha State Disaster Management Authority, the average rainfall in the state from 01 to 18 August is 325 mm, where the monthly average is 356 mm.
    India – 60,000 Evacuate Floods in Odisha – FloodList
    https://floodlist.com/asia/india-floods-odisha-august-2022

    Vice na floodlist.com
    TADEAS
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    paliativni proces

    When Time Is Short by Timothy Beal: 9780807090008 | PenguinRandomHouse.com: Books
    https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/567135/when-time-is-short-by-tim-beal/

    Is accepting the end of humanity the key to climate action? This scholar thinks so. | Grist
    https://grist.org/culture/when-time-is-short-review-timothy-beal-climate-doomer-religion/

    the scientific consensus is that it is still possible to mitigate the worst effects of climate change, assuming we take drastic and immediate action to reform our societies and economies. Wouldn’t convincing yourself that the world is ending lead people to do the opposite — to throw up their hands and go on with their lives as usual? 

    Beal argues the reverse. Reducing emissions and conserving natural resources are all things we should be doing anyway, he told Grist, but it’s hard to break out of the systems (say, capitalism) that got us into this mess in the first place. Accepting that human civilization is finite, he says, will challenge us to change our priorities, from worshiping extraction and growth to uplifting the most marginalized in society. 

    Beal’s thesis draws heavily on the works of scholars like cultural anthropologist Ernest Becker, whose book The Denial of Death made the case that humans survive by refusing to accept their own mortality. The human-centric mythology of many religions, Beal writes, has convinced people that society will persist forever, no matter what damage we do to our habitat. Some Christians, for example, have used a passage from the biblical book of Genesis that instructs humans to “subdue” the Earth and have “dominion” over other living beings as proof that natural resources like oil and trees were made to be mined with abandon, without fear of the consequences. 

    But just as religion has helped get us into this mess, Beal believes it can get us out of it. He points out that other parts of the Bible put animals on equal footing with humans, and assign inherent value to the land itself, rather than just as a tool for humanity to exploit — an interpretation shared by some evangelical Christians who view “creation care” as a sacred duty. Beal also argues that spiritually minded people should embrace “dark green religion,” belief systems that emphasize the ways humans are interconnected with all other living things. 

    Again, this philosophical shift is intended to foster mercy, not hope. Beal envisions humanity adopting a “palliative” approach to the future, one modeled on end-of-life care administered to terminally ill patients. By positing that the end is coming (as a result of our consumerist ideals, no less), this palliative approach neatly shuts down policies that promise prosperity through infinite growth. Even climate solutions touted by Biden and the Democratic Party miss the mark in this case; he argues they frame climate action in the language of job creation and benefits to the economy. 

    ...

    When Time Is Short is the latest addition to a rich body of work on what eco-theologian Michael Dowd termed a “post-doom mentality” or sustainability scholar Jem Bendell calls “deep adaptation” — the idea that if you accept what is inevitable, you can develop a true sense of empathy and a plan for how to respond positively. Pagan environmental activist John Halstead argued in his 2019 book, Another End of the World is Possible, that we need to abandon the obsessive focus on growth and capitalism that has driven us to the brink of collapse. (A 2021 book by the same name, written by a trio of Belgian ecologists and environmental advocates, calls this approach “collapsing well”). 

    ...

    For better or for worse, Beal’s message comes at a critical time. Climate anxiety is rising; as reports of droughts, fires, and floods dominate the news, climate change is no longer an abstract concept for many people, but a very real and present threat. At the same time, politicians and corporations don’t seem seriously interested in either stopping the crisis from worsening or mitigating its effects; the chances of actually limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius (about 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit), as outlined in the Paris Agreement, are now essentially nil. In one study from last year, 56 percent of teens and young adults said they believed that “humanity is doomed.”

    Once we’ve grieved for what we will lose, Beal writes, we can begin the work of doing something with the short time we have left. Given that reality, though, he acknowledges that not everyone may grieve the same way. Beal’s book was written before Don’t Look Up came out, but it references another disaster movie — Lars von Trier’s 2011 film “Melancholia,” about two sisters who struggle to cope in the days before a rogue planet collides with the Earth. While one sister is “paralyzed by depression and anxiety,” the other “gains a new sense of clear-minded peace and composure.” Religion, he argues, can provide a framework for action to alleviate unnecessary suffering as the world collapses around us. 
    TADEAS
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